Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Now I understand why climate science 'skeptics' hate SkepticalScience.com (+ climategate)

{edited for some typos, and to add two more investigation reports.  7/18/2013}


I've been reminded this afternoon why science-skeptics demonize "SkepticalScience.com" so viciously.  It's because the SkepticalScience team do such a great job of collecting and organizing real scientific information in a wonderfully simple and clean, accessible manner.  The occasion was a discussion over at http://www.debate.org.  The topic being "The Hockey Stick is Bad Science."  The actual debate was about a year ago, now it's down to the sparsely visited comments thread.  

I made a comment and the debate "contender" showed up to reply.  Unfortunately he dished up the usual denialist mantra I've come to know so well.  The sentence that inspires this post is:
"The Climategate e-mails showed a deliberate attempt to suppress skeptical viewpoints from ever being published."
When I hear someone inflating Climategate, like that, it's like a red flag - and I want to yell: "Stop and learn about what you're talking about!  Why can I be so absolute?  

Because, when one actually takes the time to familiarize themselves with all the claims based on those stolen emails, it comes down to maybe a half dozen short quotes, taken out of context, at that.  Most pathetic of all is that we are talking about personal, private emails, not data-sets or studies or actual publications.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Evidence of Patrick Michaels manipulating data - a collection


My previous post regarding Patrick Michaels has been getting so many views, I feel compelled to add a few article

Please do link to SkepticalScience.com to read the details.


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Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Posted on 17 January 2012 by dana1981
Patrick Michaels is a research fellow at the Cato Institute think tank, the chief editor of the website World Climate Report, has been given a climate blog at the business magazineForbes, and his articles are frequently re-posted at climate "skeptic" blogs like Watts Up With That (WUWT).  Despite his clear conflict of interest (Michaels has estimated that 40% of his work is funded by the petroleum industry), many people continue to rely on him as a reliable source of climate information.  This is an unwise choice, because Michaels also has a long history of badly distorting climate scientists' work.  In fact, not only does Michaels misrepresent climate research on a regular basis, but on several occasions he has gone as far as to manipulate other scientists' figures by deleting parts he doesn't like.
Patrick Michaels is a serial deleter of inconvenient data:
Hansen 1988 . . .
Schmittner 2011 . . .
Gillett 2012 . . .

Deleters and Enablers
In every case discussed above, Michaels has deleted the data which contradict his constant arguments that the planet will warm less than most climate scientists expect, and thus that global warming is nothing to worry about.  Given his history as a serial data deleter, rather than being given so many platforms from which to spread his misinformation, Patrick Michaels (and certainly the World Climate Report website) should be considered an unreliable source of information.
This is a problematic situation.  There are a large number of people who simply don't want to accept the scientific reality that humans are causing rapid global warming.  However, this reality is accepted by the vast majority of scientific experts, because it is supported by the preponderance of scientific data.  Denial enablers like Anthony Watts, Forbes, and other media outlets have found a way around the first problem by giving fake skeptics like Patrick Michaels a platform to speak to those who are in denial about the science.  Patrick Michaels has found a way around the second problem by simply deleting the data which is inconvenient for his narrative, only presenting his audience with the bits of evidence which seem to support their denial, as long as the inconvenient data are ignored.
Link to the complete article:
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Patrick Michaels' 1992 claims versus the 2012 reality

Posted on 23 August 2012 by MarkR

1990: Nelson Mandela is released from prison, the reunification of Germany is agreed and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases its first scientific report on global warming. Two years later the climate skeptic Dr. Patrick Michaels published an opinion article in Aeronautics America explaining why he thought that global warming wasn't a problem.
20 years later we can see how science has moved on in the areas that a 1990s skeptic thought were important. We’ll look at what the IPCC said in 1990, then Michaels’ own words from the 1992 article, and provide a quick summary of what happened afterwards. Snazzy, coloured boxes contain everything you need to know, but if you're desperate for detail then they are followed by extra comments and graphs to provide background.

Part one: how much global warming do you get from CO2?

IPCC 1990: "models show a significant equilibrium increase in global average surface temperature due to a doubling of CO2 which ranges from 1.9 to 5.2°C...Most results lie between 3.5 and 4 C...[including other evidence] a value of 2.5°C is considered to be the best guess in the light of current knowledge."
Patrick Michaels, 1992: "The mid-1980s’ General Circulation Models (GCMs) forclimate change stated, in aggregate, that the planet would warm up some 4.2 C due to doubling of the natural CO2 greenhouse effect"
Today: Many lines of evidence including tests using real world measurements suggest that the 'climate sensitivity', the amount that Earth will warm up because of a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is 2-4.5 C with a best estimate of 3 C (5.4 F). This best estimate is slightly higher than it was in the 1990s (Knutti and Hegerl, 2008IPCC, 2007).

Part two: bipolar disorder to warming? South warms up, north warms more . . .

Part three: warming happens both at night and during the day . . .

Part four: ice is melting . . .

Part five: seas are rising . . .

Part six: satellites measure global warming . . .

Part seven: some air pollution blocks sunlight and slows down global warming . . .


Conclusions
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"We have 20 years of data to compare what happened with Michaels' 1992 calls for caution. He suggested Greenland wouldn't melt, but it is. He suggested daytime temperatures wouldn't rise, but they are. He suggested concerns about sea level rise would vanish, but the seas are rising faster. He said that satellites didn't show global warming, but now they do. He critiqued models because they expected more warming over the Northern Hemisphere and he didn't see it, but that's exactly what happened."
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Link to the complete article:

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Tuesday, March 6, 2012


Megan McArdle, senior editor for The Atlantic, has made the most jaw-dropping admission on climate I’ve seen in years from a journalist. It deserves attention because it unintentionally illuminates why the “status quo” establishment media’s coverage of global warming is so fatally useless.


In explaining why she (supposedly) doesn’t post a lot on the problem of global warming, McArdle writes:
The first reason I don’t post a lot is that I’m not an expert, and I’m not planning to become one.  I’ve basically outsourced my opinion on the science to people like Jonathan Adler, Ron Bailey, and Pat Michaels of Cato–all of whom concede that anthropogenic global warming is real, though they may contest the likely extent, or desired remedies.
To paraphrase my mother (and countless others): Megan, if Pat Michaels told you to jump off a cliff, would you? Because that is certainly what he wants humanity to do.
I’ll come back to the fact that the Cato Institute, originally the Charles Koch Foundation, is in the process of being officially taken back by the Kochs — and McCardle, in the disclaimer at the end of the piece, notes, the current Charles Koch Foundation “sponsored a journalism fellowship for my husband.” Such is the nature of modern-day “journalism.”
{...}


(First published on ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, which was recently named one of Time magazine’s Top 25 blogs of 2010.)
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Most Credible Climate Skeptic Not So Credible After All

| Fri Feb. 26, 2010 





Patrick Michaels has more credibility than your average climate skeptic. Unlike some of the kookier characters that populate the small world of climate denialists—like Lord Christopher Monckton, a sometime adviser to Margaret Thatcher who claims that "We are a carbon-starved planet," or H. Leighton Steward, a retired oil executive and author of a best-selling diet book who argues that carbon dioxide is "green"—Michaels is actually a bona fide climate scientist. As such, he's often quoted by reporters as a reasonable expert who argues that global warming has been overhyped. But what Michaels doesn't mention in his frequent media appearances is his history of receiving money from big polluters.
Michaels, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute, has some impressive-sounding credentials. He has a PhD in ecological climatology and is a senior fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He's a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists and a former program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society. He regularly touts his work as a contributing author and reviewer of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. (Almost every climate scientist in the world has at some point contributed to or reviewed an IPCC study.) Unlike climate skeptics who implausibly claim that there's no such thing as global warming, Michaels accepts that it's happening, but downplays the severity of the problem and the role that human activity plays in the phenomenon.
With climate science increasingly under siege, Michaels has been getting plenty of airtime lately. . . .
But Michaels' credibility on climate is called into question by a trove of documents from a 2007 court case that attracted almost no scrutiny at the time. Those documents show that Michaels has financial ties to big energy interests—ties that he's worked hard to keep secret. Here's the back story: . . . 

And therein lies a tale, link to the full story:




"The Enablers" part two: Republican members of our House of Representatives

Recently I wrote an essay "What about the "Enablers" of the Denial Machine?"
Now it's time to look at the politicians who are expecting to be served misleading information in order to justify their continued willfully ignoring our self-created global warming situation.  

The tragedy is that by now, 2013, the evidence and underlying knowledge is so overwhelming that I can't believe these supposedly intelligent people don't know better... at least deep down, but their ruthless commitment to power-politics-games won't allow them to admit it - since that would create a moral responsibility to act.

It's disheartening and it's getting tougher and tougher to resist giving into hopelessness.  But, resist we must!  So here's my two cents to the effort, sharing a couple articles that highlight the disingenuous game Republicans are playing with our children's future.  Please link to the complete articles for all the details.


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GOP ‘Climate Disconnect’ Would Sacrifice Climate Research for Weather Forecasting


Amid a growing “climate disconnect” among House GOP members, as cited in a new report released yesterday by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), the Environment Subcommittee of the House of Representatives Committee of Science, Space, and Technology proved true to form earlier this week. On Tuesday, in yet another example of partisan split on climate issues, the body passed the Weather Forecasting Improvement Act of 2013.
The innocuous-sounding legislation would improve weather forecasting research, but do so by cutting NOAA’s spending on climate change research. The bill eventually passed out of the subcommittee by a voice vote along partisan lines.
{...}
This logic failed to resonate with Republicans, as Vice Chairman Jim Bridenstine (R-OK) explained his opinion that NOAA is spending too much money on “ineffective research on climate,” and suggested weather forecasting should be a higher priority than climate change research.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), took his cue from the Vice Chairman in representing the views of the anti-science, climate denier caucus:
We have seen grant after grant being given to anyone who can come up with something that will excite the public about global climate change in a way that would suggest that mankind is responsible in order to justify restrictions on human activity.
Such grants are, of course, perfectly rational in light of NASA’s recent finding that fully 97 percent of scientists believe climate change is “very likely due to human activities.”
{...}
In 2011-2012, the United States experienced 25 floods, storms, droughts, heat waves and wildfires that caused at least $1 billion in damages each. An analysis by the Center for American Progress found that the federal government, or taxpayers, spent $136 billion from 2011 to 2013 in disaster relief – equivalent to almost $400 per household per year.
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For the full article see:
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The Anti-Science Climate Denier Caucus: 113th Congress Edition


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Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus and high costs to taxpayers, there are still elected officials in Congress who refuse to accept that climate change is happening.
Almost 55 percent — 127 members — of the current Republican caucus in the House of Representatives deny the basic tenets of climate science. 65 percent (30 members) of the Senate Republican caucus also deny climate change. What this means is that they have made public statements indicating that they question or reject that climate change is real, is happening, and is caused by human consumption of fossil fuels.
This refusal to accept overwhelming scientific evidence is not just a symptom of the rank-and-file backbenchers. Members of GOP leadership and the committees that make critical decisions on national energy policy and air pollution have even higher concentrations:
  • 90 percent of the Republican leadership in both House and Senate deny climate change
  • 17 out of 22 Republican members of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, or 77 percent, are climate deniers
  • 22 out of 30 Republican members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, or 73 percent deny the reality of climate change
  • 100 percent of Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Republicans have said climate change is not happening or that humans do not cause it
The campaigns of those who reject the reality of climate science are fueled by the fossil fuel industry that advocate for and drive the emissions that cause global warming.
  • The 30 climate deniers in the Senate have taken $20,957,534 in dirty energy contributions while the 70 Senators who haven’t denied the science have only taken $11,944,009 in career contributions. On average, Senate deniers took $698,584 from dirty energy while other Senators took $170,629.
  • The 127 climate deniers in the House have taken $30,787,064 in dirty energy contributions while the 308 members who haven’t denied the science have only taken $21,209,951 in career contributions. On average, House deniers took $242,417 from dirty energy while other members took $68,863.
  • In total, climate deniers, or 157 members, have taken $51,744,598 in dirty energy contributions while other members, or 378, have taken $33,153,960 in career contributions. On average, deniers took $329,583 from dirty energy while other members and Senators took $87,708.
Some states are sorely suffering the effects of climate change in the form of climate-fueled natural disasters even as their elected representatives take in millions from fossil fuel contributions and reject the reality of climate science:
  • 18 members of the Texas congressional delegation deny the reality of climate change. Over their careers, these members have raked in over $10.8 million from oil, gas, and coal interests. Texas has suffered 58 climate-fueled disaster declarations since 2011.
  • More than half of the Oklahoma delegation denies climate change, and together they have received nearly $2.5 million in fossil fuel money. Since 2011, Oklahomans have borne dozens of disasters worsened by climate change.
  • 7 members of the Virginia congressional delegation — more than half — deny climate change and together they pulled in more than $1.25 million from fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal interests. And Virginians have 8 disaster declarations to show for it.
CAP Action War Room conducted a fresh analysis of public statements from current Representatives and Senators from the 113th Congress on climate change. Here is a comprehensive list of those statements, which will be updated regularly.
This post has been updated to reflect new additions to the anti-science climate denier caucus as well as changes in percentages and fossil fuel contributions.
For the full article see:

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Saturday, July 13, 2013

Patrick Michaels - renowned AGW contrarian - a closer look

Speaking of the master manipulators of an complacent public audience, Patrick Michaels is another one of the usual suspects with a long career of misinforming the public - as it happens SkepticalScience re-posted a revealing article from Media Matters today, which I'm happy to add to my collection thanks to the generous sharing policy of John Cook and the folks over at SkepticalScience.com




Patrick Michaels: Cato's Climate Expert Has History Of Getting It Wrong (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 13 July 2013 by dana1981 This is a re-post of a devastating debunking of Patrick Michaels' history of wrong climate predictions by Shauna Theel at Media Matters. A review of claims made by the Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels over the last…

What about the "Enablers" of the Denial Machine?




There is simply no keeping up with the manmade global warming disinformation campaign that steadfastly flies in the face of all objective appraisals of the evidence  - 

Why, in light of all this evidence, does the 'Republican power-politic global warming denial machinekeep churning out distortions, lies and plain old crazy making?


By Republican power-politic global warming denial machine I'm referring to the likes of the Marshall Institute, Heartland Institute, SPPI, Murdoch media machine, Morano, Watts, McIntyre, Koch bro'set al. peddlers of transparent science fiction.


What I find most disheartening is that at the heart of  this endless flow of calculatedly deceptive stories is the fact that this is exactly what the Republican general public and politicians expect to hear. 

These are the enablers and they countenance no objectivity or doubt.  The Republican and Tea Party public expect to be assured that the 1950s haven't ended... they reject introspection, and serious scientific investigation, while refusing to face real world challenges barreling down on us - rejecting tons worth of legitimate information with a passionate anger.

It's as though they couldn't care less about what scientists are actually learning - all they want is soothing bromides that justify their willful ignorance regarding the state of our one and only home planet.  In step the likes of Krauthammer, etc.

For all appearances this public has abandoned critical thinking skills and the pursuit of genuine learning - in favor of Holly-world storytelling where facts are selected and adjusted to the needs of the story teller's plot... in this case, that Reaganomics principles reign supreme over all other considerations and that we can disregard our Earth's processes.

Unfortunately, we live on a real planet, a miraculous planet, like no other.  Yes, climate has always changed... we also know our climate has been in a few thousands year old "goldilocks zone" enabling a complex society to thrive. 

Why then, can't Republicans realize that means this wonderful rare climatic era is most precious and needs to be protected?
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This bit of venting was prompted by Charles Krauthammer's recent ridiculous commentary (Obama's global-warming folly).  Fortunately, Dana Nuccitelli has written an excellent review which is available for reposting.  Thank you Dana and the rest of the SkepticalScience team.


Charles Krauthammer's flat-earther global warming folly (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 10 July 2013 by dana1981 Fox News commentator Charles Krauthammer recently wrote an opinion piece that was published by many media outlets including The Washington Post, claiming that President Obama's Climate Action Plan is a "folly." In…

Friday, July 5, 2013

Talking To Religious Fanatics... and Steven Goddard


Couple days ago I went looking for an update on the recent heat wave in Western USA, and I came across a blog by a character who goes by StevenGoddard, it's titled: Oklahoma Heatwave Update (July 2, 2013)
which reports that McAlester, OK had a cold record broken, in fact, by a whopping 6° below the 1995 record.  He does this in the spirit of ridiculing the standing Heat Wave that settled over the West this past weekend.  As if a few cold temperatures on the other side of that "unusually extreme standing wave pattern in the jet stream" negates the records caused by yet another freak weather system.

Monday, July 1, 2013

THIS IS WHAT GLOBAL WARMING LOOKS LIKE

It's another sad day for firefighters and the rest of us citizens.

The combination of drought, record heat, extremely dry wood and brush, dry lightening, erratic winds, conspired with fate to trap and kill 19 Hotshots - who within a few freak minutes found themselves trapped by a wall of fire, with no way out they reacted professionally and deployed their last-ditch emergency fire-shelters - but their bodies couldn't endure the minutes of smoke and heat - by the time the flames cleared out 19 young men and women (among America's best) had given their all in the service of others.

What's troubling is that while the media embraces another profound tragedy with Hollywood zeal - they ignore the real story - THIS IS WHAT GLOBAL WARMING LOOKS LIKE and we have just begun down this road that the Republican power-politics and their deceptive pet "Think Tanks" such as Marshall Institute, SPPI, Heartland and all their parrots such as Mr Anthony WUWT - with their irrational disconnect from what serious science is telling us about our planet's biosphere that seems little more than an "economic externality" to them - they have dictated a path for America's and the world's future - that will guarantee ever greater misery as these next years roll by.

All the while our "representatives" in Washington, Democrats as well as Republican continue to ignore the reality of what we have done to our atmosphere and how that is impacting weather patterns throughout the world.  Meaning that actually confronting the issue seems as distant now as it was twenty years ago.

With that sad introduction let's take a look at the Republican state of mind - courtesy of DeSmogBlog and Chris Mooney "Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming.