David Rose's "Global warming stopped 16 years ago" - examined

WUWT is having great fun with a tabloid reporter's front page claim:

Report: Global warming stopped 16 years ago 

Posted on October 13, 2012 by Anthony Watts
A report in the UK Daily Mail reveals a Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it . . .
Along with David Rose's assertions:

• The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures

• This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996

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Rose manages this claim by misrepresenting a Met Office study and their data.  In the process ignoring what the Met Office had already explained to him:

“. . . The projections are probabilistic in nature, and no individual forecast should be taken in isolation. Instead, several decades of data will be needed to assess the robustness of the projections. 

“However, what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850. Depending on which temperature records you use, 2010 was the warmest year on record  for NOAA NCDC and NASA GISS, and the second warmest on record in HadCRUT3.” 

For the full text visit:
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/met-office-in-the-media-29-january-2012/

Considering all the nonsense going on at WUWT I wanted to post a portion of the Met Office's reply to Rose's latest attack.

Met Office in the Media:  

October 14, 2012 

"An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’  

It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme – you see our response to that one  here.  

To address some of the points in the article published today:

Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit. 

We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here. . . ."

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Rose's claim is an example of a well known phenomena - 
anything can be argued convincingly when done in isolation.  

Rose uses a fiction writer's license to contort facts, along with tunnel vision and convoluted logic in order to fabricate a sellable story of his own imagination.  
He refuses to honestly describe the greater body of evidence.  

Consider Rose's phrase "aggregate global temperatures" grand concept, but then he micro focuses on one study's data while refusing explanations.

Besides "aggregate global temperatures"

What is that?  He doesn't explain it.

In the dictionary the definition for "aggregate" is: "formed by the conjunction or collection of particulars into a whole mass or sum; total; combined"

Given that, why does Rose ignore this aggregate global temperatures index?

Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue).  From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).

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What pause Mr. Rose?

Why not look at the "aggregate of global warming observations" !

Consider these geophysical indicators:

Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming

By Joe Romm on Oct 15, 2012 

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/15/1014151/ten-charts-that-make-clear-the-planet-just-keeps-warming/

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The world has not stopped warming.  It's easy enough to get acquainted with the evidence.  But it requires a sincere intellectual effort.  I hope you make the effort. Here's an excellent source for information based on the science, a good place to start.  A repost of SkepticalScience's review that deserves your attention... if you seriously want to understand Rose's myth.

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Rose and Curry Double Down on Global Warming Denial (via Skeptical Science)

Posted on 23 October 2012 by dana1981 David Rose and Judith Curry have doubled down on literal global warming denial, as they continue to deny that the planet is warming. On 13 October 2012, Rose first published an article in the British newspaper the Mail on Sunday claiming that global warming…

Arctic Ice and the DMI deficit

Another great example of Anthony Watts' crazy making over at WUWT

Arctic Ice and the DMI deficit 

October 26, 2012 by Anthony Watts 

"There’s been some interest in these before and after graphs highlighted by the blog “sunshinehours” here. 

"Arctic Sea Ice Not As Bad As They Claimed??? DMI" ect..."

DMI being the Danish Meteorological Institute who recently revised their ice cover graph incorporating previously "unclassified coastal regions."  This slightly reduced the number for the total Arctic ice loss this summer.

It was predictable that WUWTzers would jump on that as more evidence the community of scientists can't be trusted, etc, etc.  But anyone who is familiar with Earth Sciences knows that it's untidy by it's very nature - it's not like physics or rocketry were replicability and >99.99% accuracy must be achieved.  And it is dishonest to attack every ragged edge of the mantle and imply nothing can be deduced until such unrealistic standards are achieved.  That approach is nothing more than a mesmerists trick to distract from what's really happening out there.  

As for what they are having such an uproar over, look at the two DMI graphs:

before

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

after

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

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It seems pretty trivial to me, but over at WUWT it's more proof for them that global warming is a hoax - that needs to be ignored by citizens and politicians.  A most dishonest treatment of Arctic Melting story.

And since WUWT refused to print my comment, which was made 10/28/12 at 1:42 PM "http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/26/arctic-ice-and-the-dmi-deficit/#more-73071"

I'll have to post it here and since my screen shot is rather small here's the text:

You know looking at the graphs side by side their differences are startlingly minor in contrast to the bigger story they tell.  And it's been pointed out the DMI clearly explained: 

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"However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure. In late 2012 sea ice climatology and anomaly data will be available here. "

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Earth sciences never achieves 99% accuracy nor 99% reproducibility, bet we can still learn from it.   The overwrought responses in these comments seems like strategic tunnel focus meant to avoid the bigger message: Arctic summer sea ice is disappearing way too fast for comfort. 

As for the influence of storms on the ice loss - you can learn more in an October 19th post over at SkepticalScience:  "What Role Did the Arctic Storm Play in the Record Sea Ice Minimum?"

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Anthony's crazy making aside for those interested in learning more about what's happening in the Arctic and the science... as opposed to the politics of shouting down the science please refer to this interesting examination of the observations and science issues along with facts Anthony chooses to hide from his fans.

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What Role Did the Arctic Storm Play in the Record Sea Ice Minimum?

Posted on 19 October 2012 by dana1981, Albatross

http://skepticalscience.com/2012-arctic-storm.html

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I also recommend  "Arctic Sea Ice Blog" 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/arctic-storms/

PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?

Unfortunately I haven't had any time for this blog - but since SkepticalScience.com recently posted an article that does a nice job of exploring the manipulation and deception 
(my words, not their's!) Anthony Watts is guilty of and that inspired this blog to begin with I will take advantage of SkS's generous public offer to reprint their article in full (http://www.skepticalscience.com/watts-pbs-newshour.html).

As for PBS, in another example that "money don't talk, it screams" apparently the agenda driven anti-science Heartland Foundation has become advisors to PBS news programming.  What the hell is up with that?

(for more on PBS HewsHour's tenancy for false balance also visit:
 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/03/476724/false-balance-on-climate-change-at-pbs-newshour/ )

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PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That? (via Skeptical Science)

Posted on 20 September 2012 by dana1981 We have previously criticized the mainstream media for favoring false balance over factually accurate scientific reporting when it comes to climate change.  In one of the worst examples of this unfortunate and counter-productive practice, the US Public Boadcasting…

'Climate Consensus' Data Need a More Careful Look.

It's ironic that I know this Roger Cohen fellow, who's become a regular at the Wall Street Journal's OpEd page, and one of the three signees of the most recent example of Wall Street Journal's disregard for honesty and scientific integrity. He used to do lectures around town and he's very good at ignoring the science when presented to him - while continuing to repeat dishonest spins on what climatologists have been learning and observing.  In fact, Roger was instrumental in my become more activist and vocal about the lies being spread by folks who's only real interest is in protecting profits.

Thus, I dedicate this repost of a Skeptical Science article to another one of the over the hill cold-warriors who'd rather stick to ancient dogmas and who display a contemptible disregard for what we are doing to our children's future -

Here's to you my pal Roger Cohen, you old fraud.

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The Continuing Denial of the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change (via Skeptical Science)

Posted on 24 July 2012 by Andy S One of the perennial Skeptical Science top ten climate myths is “There is no consensus” (currently at number 4 in popularity). Consensus means the elements of knowledge that research scientists tend not to discuss or actively investigate any more. Consensus is…

John O'Sullivan, master manipulator - A Closer Look

Brendan Demelle and Richard Littlemore  at DesmogBlog.com have revealed more information regarding the serial liar John O'Sullivan.  The following is a repost of their interesting July 26, 2012 article.

Guess I'm trying to figure out how people choose to believe such obvious frauds rather than dedicated scientists.

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Desmog Video Affidavits in Michael Mann Libel Suit Reveal Astonishing Facts About Tim Ball Associate John O'Sullivan (via Desmogblog)

Affidavits filed in the British Columbia Supreme Court libel litigation brought by climate scientist Michael Mann against climate science denier Timothy Ball reveal that Ball's collaborator and self-styled "legal advisor" has misrepresented his credentials and endured some significant legal embarrassments…

Principia Scientific Int'l versus Dr. Michael Mann

John O'Sullivan is a principle founder and pusher of "Principia Scientific International" a group of AGW deniers intent on spreading misinformation and furthering the echo-chamber's crazy-making regarding the scientific knowledge surrounding our planet's climate.

And since I don't have the time to devote to helping expose the various nonsense around this group I can at least share the efforts of others.

At http://globalpoliticalshenanigans.blogspot.co.uk/  Pete Ridley is doing a fine job of examining the details of PSI's beautifully worded 'mission statement' compared to the reality of what they do.

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" .. advocates of transparency and accountability .. "

1.0 INTRODUCTION

In the spirit of the quotation above this article aims to provide as much transparency as possible about Principia Scientific International (PSI)’s origins as well as the motives, methods and ambitions of those whose vision PSI was. Anyone having little or no knowledge of PSI should find it worthwhile initially referring to the promotional material published on various pages on the PSI Web-site (http://principia-scientific.org/). It presents a picture of what PSI purports to be and relevant quotes will be made in this article as necessary when considering whether or not PSI lives up to those praiseworthy claims.

Comments in this article are based upon the facts collected since my first involvement during 2010 with the significant participants in PSI. I will concentrate initially on those individuals who played a major role in founding the organisation. " .. British legal analyst and science writer, John O’Sullivan pursued a vision to form a large body of experts united in opposing the worst excesses of government-funded science. .. From the outset PSI was driven by retired Dutch Analytical Chemist, Hans Schreuder, Texan engineer and science writer, Joseph A. Olson and Canada's most popular climatologist, Dr. Tim Ball .. Tom Richard .. the driving force behind Neveu Design .. has made the PSI website .. adaptive to the growing demands of an ambitious and globally-expanding science publishing and communications hub .. " (http://principia-scientific.org/about/principles-of-association). After that I propose to take a look at each of the other individuals involved.

Read on it gets quite interesting . . . 

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 As for Dr. Michael Mann and all the claims of the data he is supposedly hiding please consider this post over at Legend of Pine Ridge.

http://legendofpineridge.blogspot.com/2011/11/dr-michael-manns-data-is-available-on.html

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Dr. Michael Mann's Data is Available on the Internet

"My research is all based on data sets regarding the Earth’s climate that are freely and widely available to all researchers.  Whether I make available my computer programs is irrelevant to whether our results can be reproduced...


My computer program is a piece of private, intellectual property, as the National Science Foundation and its lawyers recognize. It is a bedrock principle of American law that the government may not take private property “without [a] public use,” and “without just compensation.”"---Dr. Michael Mann's letter to Congressman Joe Barton (7-15-05)


Mendacious people who spread falsehoods on the Internet about the alleged fabrications of climate scientists often claim that the famous Penn State climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann has kept his data secret. Actually, as Dr. Mann's 1995 letter to Congressman Barton states, Dr. Mann's data is available on Internet at government and university sites.


Dr. Mann's computer programs are a secret because they are his private intellectual property; still, researchers can develop their own computer codes and use Mann's data to verify his results. Scholars have replicated Dr. Mann's results by using his data with their own computer programs.


Researchers need not have access to exactly the same computer programs (or “code”) as Dr. Mann developed. Dr. Mann's results can be replicated using his underlying data and methodologies. See the letter (7-15-05) that Dr. Mann sent to the corrupt Congressman Joe Barton explaining the true facts and listing the Internet sites where his data was stored in 2005.


The MBH [Mann-Bradley-Hughes] data have been publicly available for more than a decade now! When Dr. Mann moved from U.Va, the same information and data were maintained through his Penn State research site.


Here are some links where the data can be found:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/#Paleo_data

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/research/MANNETAL98/


More generally, links to ALL the MBH research data, etc. from ALL of the MBH studies are here:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/research/research.html

posted by Snapple

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Dr. Michael Mann also has his own Facebook Page that is a valuable source of information coming from the man himself, along with many informative comments as proven in my previous post.

https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist

John O'Sullivan: My Hidden Muse

This recent spate of libelous slander against the dedicated scientist Dr. Michael Mann and the results of his work has taken a disgusting bizarre twist as the Denier Echo-chamber reaches new lows {as mentioned in my previous post}.

Well, it appears another example of projection on the part of deniers desperate to distract attention from the reality of what we are doing to our one and only planet.

Now thanks to the efforts of Andrew Skolnick we can get an insight into what may have spawned this latest attack strategy.  It seems that good'ol o'sullivan has an intimate acquaintance with the topic of pedophilia. 

I'll allow Andrew Skolnick to take it from here.