A blast from the past May 16, 2014 Steele's Arctic Ice Horror story

I though I'd have the time to finish with Jim Steele's video #4 of his Horror Stories YouTube series.  Didn't happen, though I did manage to do most my homework, still it may be a while before I can get it posted.  Getting it together in a presentable post is a very time consuming process.  

But, since we are about to discuss (that would be my virtual dialogue with Jim Steele) his claim that there's been no warming in Arctic regions.  I thought this blast from the past might make a decent filler, since it includes about the best one minute long proof of the dramatic warming our planetary climate system has gone through these past few decades.  

Not all the belly-aching in the world about slightly flawed wildlife studies changes one iota of that geophysical fact!  Take a satellite view of the "Amount of old ice in Arctic, 1987-2013"

Here's a reprint of a note/post from May 16, 2014, back in the early days of our acquaintance.  And let's be clear it's his writings and claims I'm having my feud with, the man is incidental, in that he's just the lasted incarnation of a proud assortment of political entertainer ready to work for the Republican/Libertarian 'BS The Public Circuit,' rather than serious educators.  

And yes, that is exactly what the public global warming dialogue needed.  We sure didn't need these past two, three decades worth of intellectual travesty.

A link between climate change and tornadoes?

This comment gave me an excuse to revisit this page.  

Anonymous writes: "perhaps you have not seen these graphs of tornado activity: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends i see no obvious tend in overall activity, but a clear drop in extreme tornado activity."

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How is someone supposed to respond to that?  A, you can't find any clear understanding by looking at one graph.  You need to make the effort to understand how the entire global heat distribution engine is evolving.

Anonymous thinks there's a clear drop in extreme tornado activity, but experts who track weather full time, have a different story to share.  Instead of just reaching for one handy-dandy looking graph to make your point, spend some time looking around that site and learn.  This link will take you to the report for January 2012, quite the extreme month.
 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/2012/1

I'm sure you'd tell me that 2012 turned out to be a very quite year tornado wise... but that's only true if you stay south of the border, Canada had a very extreme year - Saskatchewan experienced three times the normal number of tornadoes.  And then there was that wild June 2012 Derecho to remind us that there's more than tornadoes coming our way.

Here's an informative article by Seth Borenstein if you want an overview of what the scientists do and don't understand at this point:

Could global warming change tornado season, too?
http://phys.org/news/2013-03-global-tornado-season.html

Speaking of more than tornadoes to worry about:

Global warming is likely to increase severe thunderstorm conditions in U.S., research finds
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130923155542.htm 

Judith Curry and the Global Heat Distribution Engine

One thing that confuses me about Judith Curry is how she can co-author a paper like this

Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall

1. Jiping Liu
, 
2. Judith A. Curry, 
3. Huijun Wang, 
4. Mirong Song, and 
5. Radley M. Horton

http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4074 

Abstract:
While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades, anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. 

Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. 

However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. 

This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. 

Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.

Also see the story at: http://gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/arctic-ice-decline/ 
Unusual Weather: Arctic Sea Ice Decline May be Driving Snowy Winters Seen in Recent Years

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And then she writes a dressed up op-ed like "No consensus on consensus" that totally skirts what is known, instead getting lost in a wormhole of rhetoric and misdirection.

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Here you can find a lecture by Jennifer Francis another scientist who has studied this area extensively.  It's talks like her's that offer a chance to better appreciate how our planet operates and to come to grips with all that is known by climatologist, instead of allowing politically motivated folks to distract us with flimflam.

The Weekend Wonk: Jennifer Francis on Arctic Sea Ice

September 22, 2012

Here's how Peter Sinclair introduces it:

Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutger’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences is featured in my sea ice wrap video, which should be out early in the week. 

Here is a lecture she gave in January of 2012. Longish, but worth dipping into, as  she summarizes some of the most recent research in regard to the effects of shrinking arctic ice on weather and climate in the temperate latitudes – the so-called “arctic paradox” so beloved by Fox News – “if there’s global warming, why are we having this record snow storm?”. 

What she told me in a recent interview was that the sea ice record is not something that we just pay attention to in September – there will, in fact, be reverberations that will make fall and winter “very interesting” around the globe.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Interestingly  Dr. Francis wrote an op-ed of her own in the Washington Post.  I found it much more enlightening that the jibber-jabber in "No consensus on consensus."

Washington Post ~ 09/21/2012

Shrinking Arctic ice and the wicked backlash on our weather

By Jennifer Francis

Guest Op-ed

Heat waves. Drought. Flooding. Cold spells. Wildfires. The climate system is changing before our very eyes, and there is no more glaring proof than the record-shattering loss of Arctic sea ice this summer. 

The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced Wednesday that the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean has smashed the previous record minimum extent set in 2007 by a staggering 18 percent. The impacts of rising temperatures and melting ice extend beyond the far north to us in the United States, as we are poised to feel the weather-related backlash. 

The ice cover, only half of what it was only a few decades ago, is a stunning visual demonstration of the effects that increasing greenhouse gases, and resulting warming of the Earth, are having on the climate system... 

{...} 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/shrinking-arctic-ice-and-the-wicked-backlash-on-our-weather/2012/09/21/253aea6c-03f8-11e2-8102-ebee9c66e190_blog.html 

Arctic Ice and the DMI deficit

Another great example of Anthony Watts' crazy making over at WUWT

Arctic Ice and the DMI deficit 

October 26, 2012 by Anthony Watts 

"There’s been some interest in these before and after graphs highlighted by the blog “sunshinehours” here. 

"Arctic Sea Ice Not As Bad As They Claimed??? DMI" ect..."

DMI being the Danish Meteorological Institute who recently revised their ice cover graph incorporating previously "unclassified coastal regions."  This slightly reduced the number for the total Arctic ice loss this summer.

It was predictable that WUWTzers would jump on that as more evidence the community of scientists can't be trusted, etc, etc.  But anyone who is familiar with Earth Sciences knows that it's untidy by it's very nature - it's not like physics or rocketry were replicability and >99.99% accuracy must be achieved.  And it is dishonest to attack every ragged edge of the mantle and imply nothing can be deduced until such unrealistic standards are achieved.  That approach is nothing more than a mesmerists trick to distract from what's really happening out there.  

As for what they are having such an uproar over, look at the two DMI graphs:

before

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

after

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

======================================================

It seems pretty trivial to me, but over at WUWT it's more proof for them that global warming is a hoax - that needs to be ignored by citizens and politicians.  A most dishonest treatment of Arctic Melting story.

And since WUWT refused to print my comment, which was made 10/28/12 at 1:42 PM "http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/26/arctic-ice-and-the-dmi-deficit/#more-73071"

I'll have to post it here and since my screen shot is rather small here's the text:

You know looking at the graphs side by side their differences are startlingly minor in contrast to the bigger story they tell.  And it's been pointed out the DMI clearly explained: 

~ ~ ~

"However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure. In late 2012 sea ice climatology and anomaly data will be available here. "

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Earth sciences never achieves 99% accuracy nor 99% reproducibility, bet we can still learn from it.   The overwrought responses in these comments seems like strategic tunnel focus meant to avoid the bigger message: Arctic summer sea ice is disappearing way too fast for comfort. 

As for the influence of storms on the ice loss - you can learn more in an October 19th post over at SkepticalScience:  "What Role Did the Arctic Storm Play in the Record Sea Ice Minimum?"

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Anthony's crazy making aside for those interested in learning more about what's happening in the Arctic and the science... as opposed to the politics of shouting down the science please refer to this interesting examination of the observations and science issues along with facts Anthony chooses to hide from his fans.

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What Role Did the Arctic Storm Play in the Record Sea Ice Minimum?

Posted on 19 October 2012 by dana1981, Albatross

http://skepticalscience.com/2012-arctic-storm.html

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I also recommend  "Arctic Sea Ice Blog" 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/arctic-storms/

SkS: “Poor Pielke Analysis”. . . Dear Dr. Pielke can you explain?

Here’s a case in point and a worthy addition to this little collection.  ;-)

Contrarian-skeptics {as opposed to Informed-skeptics} are slippery fish to catch, but if you don’t mind my saying so, I think I caught a floppy one yesterday.
 
I was reading 

Lessons from Past Predictions: Vinnikov on Arctic Sea Ice
Posted on April 27, 2012 by dana1981 over at skepticalscience.com

Quite the interesting read ~ basically examining an Arctic Sea Ice study from way back in 1999 by Vinnikov. et al. and explaining the evolving science and incoming data through the lens of Vinnikov’s models and projections.  Anyone interested in better understanding the conflicting claims regarding the future of Arctic Sea Ice owes it to themselves to familiarize themselves with this article and Vinnekov’s work.
 

Well, I got to the section “Poor Pielke Analysis” and find this gem: