Monday, September 8, 2014

Disruption Climate Change film

I received an email this morning worth sharing, if you can help please do:

Jamie Henn - 350.org 350@350.org

Disruption is a short film about how we can change the world -- before the fossil fuel industry irreversibly changes the climate. It looks at how social movements of the past mobilized at decisive moments to shift the course of history, and applies those lessons to the decisive fight of this generation.

It features author and filmmaker Naomi Klein, CNN host and movement leader Van Jones, MSNBC's Chris Hayes, plus many more, including some of the key scientific voices sounding the alarm.

The film just went live -- click here to watch it online now: watchdisruption.com
Here’s the most exciting part of this story: it’s not finished yet. The next act will be written in the streets on September 21st, when the People's Climate March takes over New York (and cities across the globe).

This is the history we'll tell the next generation -- about the end of fossil fuels, about how the world was in crisis, about how we started to turn it around together.
Click here to see the first act … and get ready to write the next.

Onward,
Jamie

Sunday, September 7, 2014

97 hours of climate scientists courtesy of SkepticalScience - the rational folks

I look at plenty of folks who love telling us what the scientists have been saying, unfortunately too many of those folks are telling you what they think, or what they want you to believe scientists are saying.  How can anyone be sure what's what?

Why not listen to the actual scientists?

Here's a chance to learn about what actual scientists are saying about the consensus surrounding manmade global warming?  

Check it out:

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97 hours of consensus: caricatures and quotes from 97 scientists


Posted on 7 September 2014 by John Cook

Climate scientists from across the globe feature in our 97 Hours of Consensus campaign addressing one of the most significant and harmful myths about climate change. Each hour, beginning at 9am Sunday EST, September 7th, we'll publish a statement and playful, hand-drawn caricature of a leading climate scientist. Each caricature lists the scientists’ name, title, expertise and academic institution.
97 Hours of Consensus communicates the fact that 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are causing global warming. The research, conducted by scientists at The University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute, University of Reading, Michigan Technological University and Memorial University of Newfoundland found that 97% of relevant climate papers endorsed human-caused global warming. The paper was published in the academic journal Environmental Research Letters in May 2013.
In contrast, less than 10% of Americans are aware of the 97% consensus on climate change. This ‘consensus gap’ matters. When the public aren’t aware of the overwhelming scientific agreement on global warming, they’re less likely to support action to mitigateclimate change97 Hours of Consensus seeks to close the consensus gap.
The campaign begins on 9/7 (the date itself reinforcing the 97% consensus). An interactive webpage featuring the quotes and caricatures is available at http://sks.to/97

How You Can Help

  • Retweet our tweets, sent out via @skepticscience every hour for the next 97 hours. Tweet excerpts from your favourite quotes, using the #97Hours hashtag, or retweet your favourite caricatures (Raymond Pierrehumbert is a personal fave)
  • Share our Facebook posts, also published on the hour every hour.
  • Share our images posted on skepticalscience.imgur.com.
  • Blog about #97Hours and embed our quotes/caricatures (which are all creative commons licenced and free to be republished)

Acknowledgements

97 Hours of Consensus began as a whim when I thought it might be cool to caricature 97climate scientists. I fast learnt what a big task I was taking on. This project was made possible by a dedicated collaborative effort by the Skeptical Science team. Tracking down short, pithy, stand-alone quotes from climate scientists is not as easy as it sounds and required digging through interviews, articles and long YouTube talks. Many thanks to Dana, Things Break, Rob Painting, Bob Lacatena, Sarah, John Hartz, Baerbel and Kevin C for helping track down the quotes. The task of posting a new cartoon every hour for 97 consecutive hours was made substantially more manageable by Doug Bostrom who automated much of the process. The amazing interactive webpage at http://sks.to/97 was coded by Bob Lacatena. And this whole project wouldn't have been possible without the tireless collection and organizing of information by Baerbel.
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Since Anthony Watts took up a bunch of my time recently, I figured it would only be right to add this glimpse into who the man's brain operates.
Talk a look, you'll understand why I include the link here:

Conspiracy theorist Anthony Watts counting down to "sue the pants off" SkepticalScience.com

Sou - September 6, 2014 

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Anthony Watts attacks National Geographic Magazine


Or, Anthony Watts steps through the looking glass. 
National Geographic’s Warming Warning – 10 Years Later 
Anthony Watts / August 31, 2014 
Geoff Sherrington writes: National Geographic Magazine had a Global Warming issue in September 2004. New instruments have given new data. By planning now, NatGeo can make a revised issue 10 years later, in September 2014. 
The 2014 edition should aim to correct what is now known to be wrong or questionable in the 2004 edition. We can help. Here are some quotes that need attention. The first three have some commentary, as is suggested for the remainder.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
I find it ironic that Mr. Watts gets super offended when rationalists use the term "denier" to describe him, yet he shamelessly attacks the National Geographic magazine implying they made tons of mistakes in their 2004 feature issue on the coming dangers of climate change, or more accurately the global warming that is triggering significant climate changes.

As the informative links I share prove, an objective investigation reveals that he's plain wrong with his vague insinuation about how the National Geographic got it wrong.  I've already looked at the first three items of his list (here, here and here) - the only ones he managed to comment on, leaving it up to his troops to fill in the rest.  

Please notice the tactic being employed here - Anthony doesn't actually say or explain anything, except to imply most everything scientists have learned about our climate is wrong.  

Worse he does it with a malicious sales pitch that sends his Wattzers off into all corner of the blogosphere to spread this craziness with a disconnected certainty that's truly frightful, since it underscores the seeming hopelessness of our situation when the Republican/libertarian mind resists objective rational information with such emotional furor and intellectual dishonesty.

I don't comment on most items, (I don't have forever to squander on the man), so I've simply added links that will lead the curious student to up to date authoritative information regarding said items.

Also see: 
Deluded deniers: Will WUWT correct all its errors about National Geographic?
September 1, 2014

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/09/deluded-deniers-will-wuwt-correct-all.html


4. “But the recent rate of global sea level rise has departed from the average rate of the past two to three thousand years and is rising much more rapidly – a continuation or acceleration of that trend has the potential to cause striking changes…” P.19

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Anthony Watts about that Sea Level Rise



I had a chance to look at Anthony's next item sea level rise (SLR).  It appears Watts thinks because new satellite data is giving the closest look ever at the complexities of sea level rise, including unexpected surprises, that it somehow negates the measurements of the past century's documented sea level rise.  It doesn't make any sense to me, but I've learned that the creative science skeptic is an intellectual acrobat.

Consider the absolutism of their tactic: Expect perfection and impossible standards, reject everything that falls short of those expectations, then disregard everything that was learned.

That's the nut to crack.

National Geographic’s Warming Warning – 10 Years Later
Anthony Watts / August 31, 2014
Geoff Sherrington writes: National Geographic Magazine had a Global Warming issue in September 2004. New instruments have given new data. By planning now, NatGeo can make a revised issue 10 years later, in September 2014.
The 2014 edition should aim to correct what is now known to be wrong or questionable in the 2004 edition. We can help. Here are some quotes that need attention. The first three have some commentary, as is suggested for the remainder.
~ ~ ~
August 31, 2014 - 3. “… raising average global sea level between four and eight inches in the past hundred years.” P.19  
This estimate was conventional wisdom until the specialist satellite era, when measurement technology improved. 
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Measurement technology improved and now we have real time information down to minute day by day variations, but none of that changed our basic understanding of the past century's sea level rise.
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Anthony Watts / As the NOAA figure shows, Jason 1 (data from 2002) and Jason 2 (2009) have complicated the story, with data showing ocean levels falling at times. The Jason instruments were specifically designed for ocean level measurement. More time is needed before the modern estimate of ocean change can be calculated. 
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For your contrarian types no measurement will ever be accurate enough.  Still a rational evaluation of the graph does indicate continued rising sea levels, which isn't surprising considering the cryosphere keeps melting and ocean keeps warming.

Anthony Watts about those Glaciers on Kilimanjaro


This is the second installment in what might be a new series looking at Anthony Watts latest cynical lashing out at the National Geographic magazine in his continuing campaign of creating divisiveness and confusion in order to derail all attempts at a rational learning process aimed at confronting anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.  

Anthony always goes for the sensational, the polarizing, the fabricated scandals, misrepresenting clear evidence and facts, displaying a certitude about his opinions that indicates a faith-based attitude towards this planet and humanity's place in it - 

a mentality not in keeping with good faith learning, which is what the practice of science is all about.

Now Anthony's picking on Al Gore, with that Mt. Kilimanjaro canard, but I'll let Anthony speak for himself.  I'll follow him with a few links and quotes from informative articles that will help the interested student understand what kind of game is being played by the Wattzers.

National Geographic’s Warming Warning – 10 Years Later
Anthony Watts / August 31, 2014
Geoff Sherrington writes: National Geographic Magazine had a Global Warming issue in September 2004. New instruments have given new data. By planning now, NatGeo can make a revised issue 10 years later, in September 2014.

The 2014 edition should aim to correct what is now known to be wrong or questionable in the 2004 edition. We can help. Here are some quotes that need attention. The first three have some commentary, as is suggested for the remainder.
1. “The famed snows of Kilimanjaro have melted more than 80% since 1912.” P.14 
This might have been correct at the time of writing pre-2004, but by 2008 Ms Shamsa Mwangunga, the minister for Natural Resources and Tourism in Tanzania wrote ”contrary to reports that the ice caps were decreasing owing to effects of global warming, indications were that the snow cover on Africa’s highest mountain were now increasing”." 
~ ~ ~
That is still correct.  80% of the glaciers have melted - no glacial mass has been added !

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Anthony Watts about those Himalayan Glaciers


A character I'm familiar with dropped in for a moment to brag about Anthony Watts attacking the National Geographic magazine yet again with his August 31, 2014 blog post "National Geographic's Warming Warning - 10 Years Later".

Anthony's has a big list claiming National Geographic failed miserably in projecting into the future, but even a first reading indicates a few games of misrepresentation being played.  Weirdest was when Anthony was tossing down the gauntlet: "To the Editor of National Geographic, we are a third of that way to that very different world and many can’t pick the difference yet." Anthony apparently doesn't notice any changes in the world around him, an incomprehensible statement that can only be made by someone deliberately ignoring Earth observations and other global news.

For starters I wanted to look at this Himalayan glacier mistake, since the echo-chamber has been bouncing around the news that Himalayan glacier melt rate seems to be reduced recently - as though a reduction in melt rate means global warming is not happening.


This post is for those who want more information at hand when confronting the crazy-makers like Anthony Watts so I'll be sharing links to a few informative reports examining this question of IPCC's 2035/2350 error and various aspects of how a warming world has impacted the Himalayan Mountain region.  


National Geographic’s Warming Warning – 10 Years Later
Anthony Watts / August 31, 2014
Geoff Sherrington writes: National Geographic Magazine had a Global Warming issue in September 2004. New instruments have given new data. By planning now, NatGeo can make a revised issue 10 years later, in September 2014.

The 2014 edition should aim to correct what is now known to be wrong or questionable in the 2004 edition. We can help. Here are some quotes that need attention. The first three have some commentary, as is suggested for the remainder.
~ ~ ~
2. “… researchers believe that most central and eastern Himalayan glaciers could virtually disappear by 2035.” P.14 
This arose from a brochure from India to the World Wide Fund for Nature, not peer reviewed, which eventuated in year 2350 being replaced by 2035 in the IPCC 2007 report – and missed by the peer-review process. The correction process by the IPCC was tortuous and lamentably acrimonious when a single direct statement should have sufficed."

OK, the IPCC made a big mistake, one that needed to be examined, explained and avoided in the future.  Still, I wish there was more awareness that the mistake was made by social scientists in Working Group 2, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - 

Not by the Earth and climate scientists of Working Group 1, the ones who study and explain the science of climate change, or global warming if you will!

No serious errors have been found in Working Group 1's section on glaciers and the state of that geophysical science.   Below are some papers and articles relating to the 2035/2350 mistake, but more importantly I conclude with other articles that are looking at new studies, including "State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers" which some tout as if it were another 'nail in the coffin' of global warming, though it's no such thing, just another piece of the learning process
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I'll begin with, IPCC's admittedly inadequate public statement:  

IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers
Geneva, 20 January 2010

Saturday, August 30, 2014

UCS | Our Analysis of abuses of science

This is part two of the previous list, I'm posting it simply to expose it to a larger audience and to add this information to my collection of resources for those interested in better understanding the ways of the Republican/libertarian war on science.

With much thanks to the Union of Concerned Scientists

Abuses of Science - http://www.ucsusa.org/scientific_integrity/abuses_of_science/

ABUSES OF SCIENCE BASICS

IN DEPTH LOOK AT ABUSES OF SCIENCE

OUR ANALYSIS OF ABUSES OF SCIENCE

TOOLS & RESOURCES FOR IDENTIFYING ABUSES IN SCIENCE