ClimateFeedback.org FactCheck Fail

This morning I came across another example of dancing to the contrarian script -  this time it was ClimateFeedback.org Fact Checkers.

Rather than dog-chasing-tail words, we need to strive to clarify what’s unfolding upon our planet on a realistic gut level.

Moral of the story stop focusing on tiny uncertainties - redirect the dialogue back to the known certainties - because they certainly tell us enough.

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This is what appeared (click image for better view):

Edited by Scott Johnson, Climate Feedback, Mar 8, 2019     {hat tip to skepticalscience.com} 

CLAIM
"The science is clear, climate change is making extreme weather events, including tornadoes, worse.”        SOURCE: Bernie Sanders, Facebook, 4 March 2019   

ClimateFeedback.org's fact checking verdict was misleading.  

Overstates scientific confidence: Research clearly shows that certain types of weather extremes are increasing as a result of climate change, but it is not clear how tornadoes are responding to a warming climate.

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ClimateFeedback misses the point. 

It’s not about tornadoes and score keeping, it’s about learning to appreciate how our climate engine operates.

Take back the narrative !

Research clearly shows us that our global heat and moisture distribution engine has accumulated a degree Centigrade worth of extra heat since the advent of the steam engine.

Weather's job is to circulate this heat (and moisture) from the broiling equator to the poles.

This warming also increases the moisture holding capacity of air.

Physics tells us this added energy gets circulated throughout the global weather system. 

This extra heat is now available to be released through various destructive forms, not limited to tornadoes, consider destructive macrobursts, microbursts, downbursts, derechos, bomb cyclones, hurricanes and others.  

It doesn’t much matter which particular meteorological conditions come together, the point is when they do, they now have increasingly more energy, heat and moisture available, meaning more intense events must to be expected.  

It’s elementary.  It's physics.  It's certain as people can be about anything.

It’s about establishing an appreciation for what’s happening within our global heat and moisture distribution engine.  Well that and learning to appreciate the fragility of the biosphere upon who's health we all depend on for everything.

e) Map v Territory Problem, Statistical Certainty vs Geophysical Realities

. . . since New Year's Eve is upon us, I feel like collecting some of my favorite essays in an effort to summarize my perspective.  

Here are explanatory highlights from two articles that seemed to piss off the big boys.  'How dare a street urchin insinuate himself into their discussion,'  is the message I received loud and clear.  Well I dared because I thought the academic system was about increasing understanding, discussing ideas, finding and nurturing talent, but I've come to realize all those romantic notions belong to earlier more innocent days, back when principles and morality meant something and before the drive for profits and prominence dominated as it does today.  We live and learn.

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I share the key excerpts from two previous articles that look at a couple climate science communication pitfalls that are important and need much more open discussion.  At least if we're concerned with translating science speak into regular people speak.  The "Map v Territory Problem' and 'Statistical Certainty vs Geophysical Realities.'

Exploring the Map v Territory Problem - via the Brown Ocean Effect and Dr. Trenberth

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2017/12/exploring-map-territory-problem.html

Colorado Floods - statistical certainty vs geophysical realities - 2013

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2013/10/colorado-floods-statistical-certainty.html

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Exploring the Map v Territory Problem - via the Brown Ocean Effect and Dr. Trenberth

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2017/12/exploring-map-territory-problem.html

On November 9th, 2017 Dr. Trenberth visited our local Fort Lewis College and was the featured speaker at an afternoon climate change symposium.  

A Distinguished Senior Scientist (in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research), he is a cartographer if you will.  His entire being is about getting the science, the models, the map, as close to representing reality as resources and ability allow.  This dedication has made him among the best in his field of climate studies.  

As a self-taught Earth and climate science enthusiast I’ve been familiar with his work for decades and have learned a great deal from his articles and in past years talks on YouTube and I was glad to finally have the chance to see and hear him in person. …

Confronting Republican Deception - Science, Activism, Networking, Engaging in debate.

Selections from the previous list of key blog posts.

The Situation:  The disconnected-from-physical-reality GOP attacks on climate science (a.i.) have reached horrifying levels with the Trump Administration.  Yet science loving rationalists, pluralists, progressives, liberals, Democrats still haven’t developed effective messaging for directly confronting the most childish of Republican arguments.  

Why?  Seems to me, mainly because rationalists rather sidestep that Me First driven willful ignorance.  This acquiescence to malicious nonsense has been a fatal error for the national dialogue.

Engaging and arguing with contrarians should not be seen as an exercise in futility, since those are teaching opportunity for explaining the simple logical geophysical reasons behind some of the disingenuous arguments to onlookers from our own side, who probably don’t understand the science very well themselves.  Making teaching opportunities out of false claims.

Even on this fateful US election eve, little effort seems expended to help geographically dispersed individual activists, of diverse talents, network with like-minded for sharing information, developing ideas, raising enthusiasm for debate.  Such efforts would facilitate better appreciation for what we are all about, while encouraging a sense of community and pro-active cooperation.

Why write that essay:

I’m hoping it might resonate with some of you and that you’ll be in a position to do more with it than I ever can here in my Colorado hinterlands.  It has my copyright, but that’s about establishing my authorship, I invite its copying and sharing. 

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Exploring the Map v Territory Problem - via the Brown Ocean Effect and Dr. Trenberth

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2017/12/exploring-map-territory-problem.html

“… During the Q&A I had a chance to ask Dr.Trenberth, (58:00 video 3/3) 

Science communicators, I ask for a moment of your time and consideration, please.

As a follow up to The Missing Key to Stephen Gould’s “Nonoverlapping Magisteria” I want to share a selection of blog posts that focus on various other aspects (keys) to better understanding of the Republicans blind-faith driven mass deception and self-inflicted self-stupification regarding matters of extreme importance to our future health and wellbeing.

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I’m looking for help to network with others who understand what I’m trying to say with these essays, virtual debates and blog posts.  I’ve added a selection of excerpts from these blog posts and FCFP columns in the next post.   

Exploring the Map v Territory Problem - via the Brown Ocean Effect and Dr. Trenberth

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2017/12/exploring-map-territory-problem.html

Colorado Floods - statistical certainty vs geophysical realities - 2013

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2013/10/colorado-floods-statistical-certainty.html

2018, now what? Considering the Republican Dialogue Problem in 14 VERSES.

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/01/2018-pruitt-now-what.html

CO2 Science - Blue team: "Pruitt, it's certain as certain gets! It's the physics! Don't you know?

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/01/pruitt-agw-certain-as-certain-gets.html

CO2 Science - Pruitt, proof is in the pudding! Impossible Modern Marvels

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/01/pruitt-proof-isin-modernmarvels.html

Schooling Pruitt's Red Team about our planet and its climate engine (FCFP)

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/01/schooling-pruitt-on-earths-climate.html

(Sd7) Abuse of Our Free Speech Rights (LandscapesAndCycles - Jim Steele) (FCFP)

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/08/abuse-free-speech-rights-steele.html

(Sd3) Mr.GOP don't buy Jim Steele's Fraud - LandscapesAndCycles

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/07/mrgop-dont-buy-jim-steele-fraud.html

(Sd1) Revisiting Jim Steele's LandscapesAndCycles Fraud 

            An index of past research - Steele debate #1

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/07/revisiting-steele-landscapesandcycles.html

Fruits of Ignoring Deliberate Deception.

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/06/fruits-of-ignoring-deliberate-deception.html

I am an Earth Centrist.

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/07/i-am-earth-centrist.html

Earth Centrist ponders, polite or honest?

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/07/earth-centrist-ponders-polite-or-honest.html

Saying No To Reality (Four Corners Free Press column)

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/07/explaining-geologic-column-to-psalm1tree.html

Citizenschallenge’s  “Hall of Shame”

ConfrontingScienceContrarians.blogspot.com/p/HALL-OF-SHAME.html

Exploring the Map vs Territory Problem - via the Brown Ocean Effect and Dr. Trenberth (revisited)

Time for something a little more thoughtful than jousting with Steele's LandscapesAndCycles snow job.  Since Trenberth's talk at Fort Lewis College inspired my previously posted FCFP column; which in turn inspired Mr GOP to share Jim Steele's complain about the lack of debate; which in turn lead to the forgoing series examining Mr. Steele's base disingenuousness and which isn't quite finished yet.    

Still, for now I figure it's only fitting that I share the other article I wrote regarding Dr Trenberth's talk.  The Four Corners Free Press column was intended for the uninitiated, this essay is intend for climate science communicators and wannabe communicators regarding the under appreciated Map v Territory Problem.  Food for thought.  Originally written December 10, 2017, revised August 22, 2018.

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On November 9th, 2017 Dr. Trenberth visited our local Fort Lewis College and was the featured speaker at an afternoon climate change symposium.  

A Distinguished Senior Scientist (in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research), he is a cartographer if you will.  His entire being is about getting the science, the models, the map, as close to representing reality as resources and ability allow.  This dedication has made him among the best in his field of climate studies.  

As a self-taught Earth and climate science enthusiast I’ve been familiar with his work for decades and have learned a great deal from his articles and in past years talks on YouTube and I was glad to finally have the chance to see and hear him in person.

He gave an interesting talk reviewing many aspects of our warming climate system including hurricanes, where he touched on the recent Hurricane Harvey with its extraordinary longevity and rainfall.  Dr. Trenberth went through its vitals, a million people displaced, homes damaged, massive power outage, biblical rainfall.  

He pointed out that normally hurricanes ‘peter out’ within on average 27 hours, whereas Harvey went for 70 hours on land making a loop and returning to the Gulf with it’s record warm waters, which fed the cyclone before it made another incursion onto land.  Then he discussed the many human factors around Houston that ensure floods will reek maximum havoc, pointing out that, “with climate change you either adapt to it or you suffer the consequences.”

What struck me was that Trenberth didn’t mention the “Brown Ocean Effect” which is a fairly new, but fascinating and important observation based realization.  Also, it’s another sure indicator of a warming world.  

Exploring the Map vs Territory Problem - via the Brown Ocean Effect and Dr. Trenberth

I'm sharing this from the other blog I've started ConfrontingScienceContrarians.blogspot.com, it's part of my continuing struggle to understand the roots of the past decades worth of climate science communicators failure to sway public understanding, along with their failures in confronting alt-right juvenile liars and their childish distractions. 

On November 9th Dr. Trenberth visited our local Fort Lewis College and was the featured speaker at an afternoon climate change symposium.  

A Distinguished Senior Scientist (in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research), he is a cartographer if you will.  His entire being is about getting the science, the models, the map, as close to representing reality as resources and ability allow.  This dedication has made him among the best in his field of climate studies.  

As a self-taught Earth and climate science enthusiast I’ve been familiar with his work for decades and have learned a great deal from his articles and in past years talks on YouTube and I was glad to finally have the chance to see and hear him in person.

Although he gave an interesting talk reviewing many aspects of our warming climate system including hurricanes,

Phil Klotzbach's response to Citizenschallenge Examined - The Map vs. Territory Problem

Phil Klotzbach gave me his permission to share this email and I thank him.  I haven’t changed any of his words, I simply follow along and share my responses as I try fleshing out this Map vs. Territory Problem I'm trying to explain.  By that I mean the attitude that unless you can statistically prove it, it doesn't exist and should be dismissed, even though the physics dictates it must exist and had better be taken seriously.

There’s also the seepage issue, a sort of self-censorship where certain information is being withheld while other information is given inordinate weight - following the contrarian script rather than focusing on conveying the physical reality.

Dr. Klotzbach's words are in Georgia font, while mine are in Verdana.  

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From: Phil Klotzbach
Date: Sat, Sep 9, 2017 at 6:51 AM
Subject: Re: fyi, just posted "Surely you’re joking Dr. Klotzbach, no hurricane global warming connection"
To:  citizenschallenge @ gmail 

           Dr. Klotzbach:  Apologies for a delay, but it's been a very hectic past few days.  

No apology needed, considering your lead author of the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science’s seasonal hurricane forecast, I imagine you’re probably running on four hours of sleep these past few weeks.  I was surprised to receive any response, let alone such a thoughtful one.  I don’t mind admitting I’m honored and thank you for your time and effort.

Explaining your position will allow me to explain mine, which I believe is compatible with the need for vigorous science in all it’s maddening details minutia and uncertainties.

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Dr. Klotzbach:  In answer to your questions, I have spent over 15 years working with historical hurricane data, primarily for the Atlantic but over the last several years with global data, so I do not make statements like I did on NPR and many other news outlets without having spent much time understanding the nuances of the technology going into the analyses.  

I acknowledge your expertise, in fact both Drs. Mann and Tobis made a point of telling me your professional reputation among experts is solid.  Me?  I’m a layperson and my hobby for the past 45 years has been learning about Earth sciences.  Evolution and our planet’s global heat and moisture distribution engine have been of particular fascination to me.  

My position is that while our actual living breathing climate engine is infinitely complex, it follows fundamental and well understood laws - which I believe are too often left behind in favor of obsessing over trying to explain uncertainties that in the end are more irrelevant than not, and only serve to sooth people into complacent disconnect from the changes happening underfoot.  This is what my Map vs. Territory Problem is all about, allow me to explain.

Explaining why Dr. Trenberth owes CBC meteorologist an apology.

The Map vs Territory problem.

Why does the quest for numerical certainty trump acknowledging the fundamental physics unfolding in front of us?  I understand scientists need to be dedicated to numerically “Mapping” out physical reality with exacting precision.  No detail can be left unexplored.  Still, in the end all this effort is so we can better understand our physical world, the “Territory” if you will.

Please consider, when it comes to explaining climate science understanding to an under-informed collection of leaders and citizens, is it a service or disservice to constantly return the discussion to uncertainties rather than focus on all we do know and the conclusions that can be drawn with great certainty?  

Minutia that in itself requires additional background knowledge to appreciate.  What good does it do? What sort of abuses has it opened scientists up to?  Consider the case of Dr. Mann, one simply needs to read the caveats within those early papers and all the contrived charges made against him and the work of his team evaporate.  But, did anyone take notice?  

Nope, the contrarians fabricated a fantastical storyline, which has dominated the public discussion on both sides ever since. Exploding trivia into a show stopper.  That was a result of a failure of imagination and failure to convey all you do know in a way that presents folks with a fundamental understanding and the critical thinking skills to see through the contrarian deceptions.  

Instead, in the public arena, soberly learning about climate understanding has been left behind for preoccupations with endlessly playing defense against a repetition of contrived childish politicized nonsensical fabrications that have been embraced by all too many.

What about the sins of omission?   By that I mean not acknowledging fundamental physics, which we know act according to their own exacting and unchanging laws, whether we understand every detail of their behaviors or not.