But some of these issues and deceptive practices need to be exposed.
As for the writing I hope this evening's edits have helped a bit. 9/20/2013}
Also see Prof. Anastasios Tsonis: The Art Of Misdirection (open letter 2)
Professor Anastasios Tsonis replies plus comments (open letter 3)
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I would like to share the following open letter.
Professor Anastasios Tsonis,
We have exchanged a few emails and I must say I am very disappointed by your evasion. A couple fundamental questions regarding the general scientific understanding of Earth's geophysical processes and you turn silent as a salt pillar.
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A distinguished professor now willfully ignoring important evidence. Why?
From my perspective, your professional trajectory seems to have split off into that Crichtonesque paperback-writer's realm of political story-telling mode - that is, an "artiste" who feels free to pick and choose facts - as is convenient for his storyline. As opposed to the serious "learning" motived scientist.
What are your recent pronouncements all about? What inspired them?
What are you trying to accomplish?
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OK, it is at the layperson's level - But, don't discount it!
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World's oceans are getting warmer, faster
Roz Pidcock | 25 Mar 2013,
~ ~ ~Argo research papers submitted or in press
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New Study Finds Ocean Warmed Significantly Since 1993 - (05.19.2010)
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Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming
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135 Years of Global Ocean Warming - Perspectives on Ocean Science
UCTV - Sep 6, 2012
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Also see: The Role of the Oceans in Climate
Kevin Trenberth: Senior Scientist and Head of the Climate Analysis Section
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
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Here are a collection of links to various serious descriptive articles at Science of Doom (don't let the dramatic name fool you; they have very serious physics on their mind.)
SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2013
Science of Doom - understanding the physics of global warming
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/05/science-of-doom-understanding-physics.html
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 16, 2013
CO2 – An Insignificant Trace Gas? The Science of Doom
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/01/co2-insignificant-trace-gas-science-of.html
Here are links to a series of videos with layperson friendly explanations of the various points regarding the Earth's radiation budget, information that in your attack on clear scientific understanding you feel the need to hide away from the public.
(H/T to Greenfyre)
CO2 Myths
MYTH: Climate change is good for plants and crops
Don’t it make my Green World Brown:
CO2 and plant growth
MYTH: Water vapour, not CO2 is driving climate change
The Big Mist Take
MYTH: CO2 is not driving climate change
Sense from Deniers on CO2? Don’t hold your breath….
MYTH: The “lag” shows CO2 does not cause climate change
The “Temp leads Carbon” Crock
MYTH: Since it is a natural gas CO2 is harmless
A Natural By-Product of Nature
Global Cooling Myths
MYTH: Climate change ended in 1998 aka decade of cooling
Heatwave Edition Part 1
Heatwave Edition Part 2
“1998 Revisited”
Party like it’s 1998
MYTH: Scientist Mojib Latif predicts decade of a decade of cooling
“Birth of a Climate Crock”
MYTH: Sea levels are not rising, or not like they said
All Wet on Sea Level rise
MYTH: 30,000 scientists signed a petition
The great Petition Fraud:
MYTH: Other planets warming prove it’s the sun
Mars Attacks!!
MYTH: Weather stations are unreliable
Watts Up With Watts?
The “Urban Heat Island” Crock
MYTH: They were predicting global cooling in the 1970s
“I Love the 70s!!”: CAUTION: may contain disco music
MYTH: It’s a natural 1500 year cycle
That 1500 Year Thing
MYTH: “The Hockey Stick” is broken
Medieval Warming? (& the Hockey Stick)
MYTH: It’s the Sun &/or Sunspots
Solar Schmolar: Debunking the “It’s the Sun” fable
MYTH: A cold day in ____ proves climate change isn’t happening
“It’s cold. So there’s no Climate Change”
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The original correspondence between Professor Tsonis and myself:
my first email to Prof. Tsonis:
On Sep 11, 2013, at 10:32 AM:
Dear Professor Anastasios Tsonis,
The internet is all a buzz with a quote that is being credited to you.
"We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped."
Is that an accurate reflection of what you believe?
If it is, may I ask:
Weren't the 2000s the warmest decade on record?
Where does that claim leave the matter of GHGs and the imbalance in Earth's radiative budget?
What about the heat that is being absorbed by the oceans?
Thank you for your time and hopefully interest
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Prof. Tsonis reply to my first email:
On Wed, Sep 11, 2013 at 9:51 AM:
Anastasios Tsonis wrote:
Dear Peter
Yes this my quote.
As for your question: at the end of the century we were sitting on the highest global temperature value of the modern record. Since then we have leveled off and we may in fact be cooling. "We have reached the top of the mountain", therefore it's not surprising that the last decade is one of the warmest on record. Think about it! The important aspect is that the warming of the 80s and 90s has stopped and the models missed it completely! The important issue is that we have entered a new regime in global temperature tendency. In fact, I find it very misleading that scientists will present "the warmest decade" argument to justify their beliefs (or failures).
Regarding the oceans absorbing heat, it is another argument without solid proof.
Best
Prof. Tsonis
Sent from my iPhone
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my second email to Prof. Tsonis:
On Sep 11, 2013, at 2:11 PM:
Dear Professor Tsonis,
Thank you for taking the time to share that interesting information.
Would have a comment regarding this question:
Where does that claim leave the matter of GHGs and the imbalance in Earth's radiative budget?
Best Wishes,
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Prof. Tsonis's reply to my second email:
On Wed, Sep 11, 2013 at 1:19 PM:
Anastasios Tsonis wrote:
I don't have a comment on this. It's an open question
Sent from my iPhone
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my third email to Prof. Tsonis:
On Sep 16, 2013, at 10:47 AM:
Dear Professor Tsonis,
I've had a few days to think about your reply and am confused. May I ask your patience and bring up few more questions?
Can you please describe this "new regime in global temperature tendency" you say we have entered?
What are it's hallmarks?
You say "We have reached the top of the mountain" but that doesn't make sense to me considering trends in ice sheet and glacier melting. There hasn't been a slow down in melting after the 80s and 90s steep surface temperature rise. And from a number of studies it seems that increasingly warmer ocean currents are eating away at the bottoms of sheet ice and grounded glaciers.
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You say: "Regarding the oceans absorbing heat, it is another argument without solid proof."
But, everything I've been reading about the ARGO float system indicates that initial bugs have been worked out and that it is running well and that the incoming observation data does indeed show ocean warming at various depths.
Do you accept the ARGO results - or are there specific issues that cause you to reject the ARGO data?
Recently I came across this article by John Abraham "Abraham et al. (2013) explore the known unknowns in the oceans and global warming." It's a summation and I have not read the actual paper - and would problem find myself out of my depth if I tried - but I do trust his summation to honestly reflect what is in the paper itself. You can find this article at http://www.skepticalscience.com/abraham-2013-known-unknowns.html
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One last question, it seems that this central issue of Earth's radiative budget/balance and observations deserves more than a "No Comment." Please, do you have anything more to offer regarding this question?
Where does that (Earth's cooling) claim leave the matter of GHGs and the imbalance in Earth's radiative budget?
Do you have any thoughts regarding the 2009 paper:
"An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950"
I thank you for your time.
Best Wishes,
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Prof. Tsonis reply to my third email:
Anastasios Tsonis, Sep 16, 2013
Dear Peter
I am dealing with a lot of people all over the world and I try to reply as much as I can. I simply don't have the time to get into an endless conversation. Sorry
Prof. Tsonis
Sent from my iPhone
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PS
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/04/a-video-and-lecture-tour-of-our-global.html
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/04/videos-of-scientists-lectures-global.html
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/04/more-videos-what-we-knew-in-1988-plus.html
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/04/more-videos-machinery-of-climate-anti.html
8 comments:
Dear Mr. Miesler
I am not really sure who you are and what is your profession but it seems you have much more time in your hands to deal with all these issues than I do.
You wrote to me and asked me questions. I answered them but obviously you did not understand my replies and asked more questions. I replied to your new request that I cannot continue an exchange of answers and questions for ever. I am dealing with a lot of people and I have a job to attend to. Now if you see this as an evasive action then you need to set back and relax.
All the best
Professor Anastasios Tsonis
As they say, whatever.
Your public story speaks for itself.
You, Prof. Tsonis, are going out of your way to participate in a maliciously fraudulent line of argument.
An argument intent on misleading the public regarding the genuine state of the science
~ ~ ~.
It doesn't matter who I am - your actions are what matters here.
It would be informative for you to have a look at Tsonis' own research (with various colleagues) pertinent to the discussion. He argues that he has identified a long-term cycle in the climate system (basically a periodic synching and unsynching of known shorter-term ocean cycles like ENSO) that would mean that we're in a hiatus that will last several decades. After that, there will be a price to pay as the warm part of the cycle combines with the inexorably increasing radiative imbalance to create a sharp warming spike. Then lather, rinse, repeat.
So this is in no sense denialism, quite the contrary, and indeed it probably implies high climate sensitivity, but his quote leaves the impression that it is by neglecting the last bit. (That would be the point for a non-scientist to challenge him on IMO.)
I think what's going on here is that he's quite sure he's right about this but is getting a little bitter about it since (AFAICT) relatively few scientists are in agreement. Seeing other scientists speaking (arguably over-)confidently about a near-term end to the hiatus when there's no means of actually making a prediction of such a thing is rubbing salt in the wound. Possibly there's some specific unhappiness relating to the treatment of his hypothesis in the forthcoming WG1 report.
To add one nuance, Tsonis more or less backed into his hypothesis from a purely theoretical direction (network theory) rather than from (very incomplete, to be fair) observations of how the heat is really moving around the system. If it's the case that the heat has been going into the deep oceans, all else equal a multi-decade hiatus is probably less plausible.
Just to be clear, AFAIK his hypothesis is entirely plausible and has not been shown to be wrong. It's just that the bulk of scientific opinion is that other explanations, generally implying a quicker end to the hiatus, are more likely to be correct.
Note: IANAS, so in case you decide to pursue this further you may want to check all of this with someone who actually knows what they're talking about.
Steve Bloom said...
It would be informative for you to have a look at Tsonis' own research (with various colleagues) pertinent to the discussion. He argues that he has identified a long-term cycle in the climate system (basically a periodic synching and unsynching of known shorter-term ocean cycles like ENSO) that would mean that we're in a hiatus that will last several decades. After that, there will be a price to pay as the warm part of the cycle combines with the inexorably increasing radiative imbalance to create a sharp warming spike. Then lather, rinse, repeat.
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CC Replies:
This is the beginning of the deception.
Find all the natural cycles you like...
so long as you ignore what greenhouse gases are doing to our atmosphere,
you are being played for a fool!
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Steve Bloom said...
So this is in no sense denialism, quite the contrary, and indeed it probably implies high climate sensitivity, but his quote leaves the impression that it is by neglecting the last bit. (That would be the point for a non-scientist to challenge him on IMO.)
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CC Replies:
Of course, ignoring GHG's geophysical impacts is the exact definition of denialism.
As for the rest of this sentence what are you talking about? Can you explain?
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Steve Bloom said...
I think what's going on here is that he's quite sure he's right about this but is getting a little bitter about it since (AFAICT) relatively few scientists are in agreement. Seeing other scientists speaking (arguably over-)confidently about a near-term end to the hiatus when there's no means of actually making a prediction of such a thing is rubbing salt in the wound. Possibly there's some specific unhappiness relating to the treatment of his hypothesis in the forthcoming WG1 report.
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CC Replies:
Perhaps Tsonis is just evolving into an old crank who has come to believe his own personal ego and bias is superior to a thorough objective examination of the full spectrum of current data?
Simply the fact that Tsonis willfully excludes consideration of what's happening to our atmosphere's insulating properties is a sign of the man's tendency towards misrepresenting the facts.
Thus my charge of "artiste" rather than "scientist"
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Steve Bloom said...
To add one nuance, Tsonis more or less backed into his hypothesis from a purely theoretical direction (network theory) rather than from (very incomplete, to be fair) observations of how the heat is really moving around the system. If it's the case that the heat has been going into the deep oceans, all else equal a multi-decade hiatus is probably less plausible.
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CC Replies:
What are you talking about? ...What is your take-away-message here?
You know what I hear... Professor Tsonis is out of his depth and making bold pronouncements that go light years beyond his knowledge or capabilities.
What Tsonis is championing contradicts Earth observations and geophysical facts of life!
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Steve Bloom said...
Just to be clear, AFAIK his hypothesis is entirely plausible and has not been shown to be wrong. It's just that the bulk of scientific opinion is that other explanations, generally implying a quicker end to the hiatus, are more likely to be correct.
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CC Replies:
Again, what are you talking about!?
What plausible hypothesis... that there are natural cycles within our oceans -
Great job Watson!
What about the extra layers of insulation being piled on top of our planet's already plenty adequate thermo-mantel against frigid outer-space?
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Steve Bloom said...
Note: IANAS, so in case you decide to pursue this further you may want to check all of this with someone who actually knows what they're talking about.
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CC Replies:
You want information from people who know what they are talking about?
What about these sources?
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130806_stateoftheclimate.html
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/state-climate-2012-highlights
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2012/sotc-2012-webinar-briefing-slides.pdf
You want me to pursue this further?
Supply some actual articles and links to something interesting -
rather than vaguely pointing at IANAS, without even getting specific about which organization or publication you are referring.
Suspiciously superficial, just like Tsonis evasions.
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typos what can I say
;- }
Incidentally, here's some information that is pertinent to this discussion:
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http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/1/2/76
Comment on: Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11
Nuccitelli, Abraham, Benestad and Mandia
Abstract: A recent article which has set forth new interpretations of Earth’s recent climate history has included some questions of authentic scientific inquiry, particularly related to the impact of ocean oscillations on atmospheric temperatures. In fact, this very issue is currently being investigated by multiple research groups.
On the other hand, the claim that a two-century linear temperature increase is a recovery from a recent cool period is not supported by the data. Furthermore, this thermal recovery hypothesis is not connected to any physical phenomenon; rather it is a result of a simplistic and incorrect curve-fitting operation.
Other errors in the article are: the claim that the heating of the Earth has halted, misunderstanding of the relationship between carbon dioxide concentration and the resultant radiative forcing, and a failure to account for forcings other than carbon dioxide (such as other greenhouse gases, atmospheric aerosols, land use changes, etc.).
Each of these errors brings serious question to the conclusions drawn in the referenced article.
The simultaneous occurrence of all of these errors in a single study guarantees that its conclusions cannot be supported and, in fact, are demonstrably incorrect.
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