What I keep struggling with is trying to comprehend how folks can allow their own personal political inclinations and personal convictions and egos - which we all possess to one degree or other - to so totally blind themselves to what's happening in front of their faces. Like, come on already, refusing to admit mistakes and to learn from new lessons is a pretty dang crazy way to go through life.
Please review these recent reports -
Manmade Global Warming is for real, it's here. Actually, look around you'll find that CAGW has already arrived -
How long will this state of denial continue?
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In February the UK’s Royal Society (RS) and the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
jointly issued a report (Climate change: Evidence & Causes)
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), “What We Know”
IPCC Working Group II – ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’,
IPCC Working Group III – ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’.
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Other important recent reports:
Working Group (WG) 1 report – ‘The Physical Science Basis’, September 2013
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Antarctica's ice losses on the rise
Date:
May 19, 2014 Source: University of Leeds
Three years of observations show that the Antarctic ice sheet is now losing 159 billion tons of ice each year -- twice as much as when it was last surveyed. Scientists have now produced the first complete assessment of Antarctic ice sheet elevation change
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West Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Collapsing -
news.sciencemag.org (award-winning daily news site of the journal Science) May 12, 2014
One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse.
The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin.
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Deep Ocean Warming is Coming Back to Haunt Us:
Record Warmth for 2014 Likely As Equatorial Heat Rises
May 16, 2014
Earlier this year the most intense sub-sea Kelvin Wave on record raged across the Pacific Ocean. Driven eastward by a series of strong westerly wind bursts, it traveled just below the surface, running out to collide with South America. By April, it had arrived in the traditional El Nino spawning grounds of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific where it retained an extreme intensity. There it sprawled, snuffing off the cold deep water upwelling that over the past few years has kept surface water temperatures in this critical region slightly cooler than average.
And so, from late March through mid-May, the Eastern Pacific warmed.
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Here's an update
http://iri.columbia.edu/news/june-2014-climate-briefing-el-nino-likely-to-develop-this-summer/
Changes from last month’s briefing
The IRI/CPC probabilistic ENSO forecast issued mid-June 2014. Note that bars indicate likelihood of El Niño occurring, not its potential strength. Unlike the official ENSO forecast issued at the beginning of each month, IRI and CPC issue this updated forecast based solely on model outputs. The official forecast, available at http://1.usa.gov/1j9gA8b, incorporates human judgement.
As the northern hemisphere summer gets underway, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows signs of borderline neutral/weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. However, conditions in the atmosphere remain ENSO-neutral. The Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly was +0.4ºC last week, just shy of the +0.5ºC threshold indicative of El Niño conditions and 0.1ºC lower than the anomaly seen in early May.
The IRI’s June ENSO forecast predicts a 60% chance of El Niño developing during the current June-August season, and a 75-80% chance by mid-autumn. These probabilities are a slight increase from the IRI’s May forecast, but marginally lower than NOAA/IRI’s forecast issued June 5. ...
for full story visit: http://iri.columbia.edu/news/june-2014-climate-briefing-el-nino-likely-to-develop-this-summer/
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http://www.skepticalscience.com/six-major-reports-in-a-year.html
6 major reports in a year: is it possible to have too much information about climate change? (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 14 May 2014 by gpwayne This is a re-post from Graham Wayne's Small Epiphanies blog It’s a brave and foolhardy businessman who ignores instability when it infiltrates all our planning, borrowing, growth and analysis. Equally, those who…
Here's an update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
El Niño indicators ease
Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.
While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year's end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has shifted to El Niño WATCH status. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.
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