Monday, December 15, 2014

A blast from the past May 16, 2014 Steele's Arctic Ice Horror story

I though I'd have the time to finish with Jim Steele's video #4 of his Horror Stories YouTube series.  Didn't happen, though I did manage to do most my homework, still it may be a while before I can get it posted.  Getting it together in a presentable post is a very time consuming process.  

 But, since we are about to discuss (that would be my virtual dialogue with Jim Steele) his claim that there's been no warming in Arctic regions.  I thought this blast from the past might make a decent filler, since it includes about the best one minute long proof of the dramatic warming our planetary climate system has gone through these past few decades.  

 Not all the belly-aching in the world about slightly flawed wildlife studies changes one iota of that geophysical fact!  Take a satellite view of the "Amount of old ice in Arctic, 1987-2013"

 Here's a reprint of a note/post from May 16, 2014, back in the early days of our acquaintance.  And let's be clear it's his writings and claims I'm having my feud with, the man is incidental, in that he's just the lasted incarnation of a proud assortment of political entertainer ready to work for the Republican/Libertarian 'BS The Public Circuit,' rather than serious educators.  

 And yes, that is exactly what the public global warming dialogue needed.  We sure didn't need these past two, three decades worth of intellectual travesty.


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May 16, 2014

 Lately I haven't had much time for this, but Mr. Steele smacked me with another one yesterday.  After reading his SKEP thread reprinted below and his full article and looking up some stuff I started a response but it's such a gish gallop with the guy, then I got all caught up in an aside now I've run out of time. So I'll just post it over here.  Let him know I'm doing my homework and I'll be back. 

Re: Amputating Contrary Data:Stock & Trade of Climate Alarmi

Post #46  Postby JIm Steele » Thu May 15, 2014 6:14 am
Not only did warming alarmist amputate data that showed improving polar bear condition, in a dubiously named 2012 article " Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence" they amputated data that reported it is actually heavy ice years that are the worse for seals and bears.

Polar bear experts Ian Stirling and Andrew Derocher {check out the links I added} (who predicts by the middle of this century, two-thirds of the polar bears will be gone due to rising CO2) published in a section titled, “Why progressively earlier breakup of the sea ice negatively affects persistence of polar bearsubpopulations" to illustrate the importance of ringed seal pups they wrote, “In the mid-1970s and again in the mid-1980s, ringed seal pup productivity plummeted by 80% or more for 2–3 years…. A comparison of the age-specific weights of both male and female polar bears from 1971 to 1973 (productive seal years), to those from 1974 to 1975 (years of seal reproductive failure), demonstrated a significant decline in the latter period.”

They referenced those years of bad seal and bad bears in Stirling’s 2002 paper. But if you actually read that paper Stirling contradicted his own “review of the evidence” writing, “Heavy ice conditions in the mid-1970s and mid-1980s caused significant declines in productivity of ringed seals, each of which lasted about 3 years and caused similar declines in the natality of polar bears and survival of subadults, after which reproductive success and survival of both species increased again.” In 2012, Stirling coauthored another paper with a seal researcher and concluded all declines were caused by heavy ice years. Their paper proposed that “the decline of ringed seal reproductive parameters and pup survival in the 1990s could have been triggered by unusually cold winters and heavy ice conditions that prevailed in Hudson Bay in the early 1990s, through nutritional stress” 

{my red highlights}


Here we have a favorite tactic.
Think about what's going on here,  
Steele is reaching back to the seventies, eighty when conditions had been relatively stable, and had been for millennia (even considering the LIA/MWP).  

Amount of old ice in Arctic, 1987 2013




We're living in 2014, and should be focusing on 2020s, and beyond.

Instead, Steele/Watts/et.al. want us to focus on the rear-view mirror, imaging conditions haven't changed these past few decades.  Unfortunately, my dear Republic/Libertarian/AynRand-lovers we are no longer in the golden age of the twentieth century, 
we are well into the twenty-first century 
and we have really and truly screwed the pooch big time.  

Our kids face an increasing hostile weather environment.
Guaranteed no two ways about it - 
and all you folks want to do is keep fanning flames of distrust 
and contempt, WHERE IT'S NOT DESERVED, in order to protect vested interests and further delay focusing on our planet?

We know why these things are happening, Mr Steele, CO2 is not something to be treated like a comedy routine.

All you do is crazy-making.  The entire way you frame your articles and make claims based on finger pointing and quite a degree of assumed "authority" - you like knocking me for my lack of genuine "expertise" - the difference is that I share what smarter people have amassed.  I'm pointing to information, not asking people to take my word for things.  

Also I'm not a fool, and like humans who love learning about the world around me, I seek out and absorb as much information as my little gray cells can digest, then I go for more.  I have that in common with real scientists and  that's why I love and trust them.  

And even with the few screw-ups turned fabricated scandals, great things have been learned.  {Real students of our planet learn from mistakes and failures, politician make bludgeons out of them}  The discussion is alive and well and the ideas that make most sense are winning the dialogue/constructive-debate  Life is all about making mistakes and then hopefully learning from them - building a more complete understanding.

But, you do it differently Mr. Steele.  You are on this binge of attacking one scientist after another via finger pointing and science by rhetoric with craftily composed gish gallops of claims and innuendo all intended to berate some of the most respected scientists in their respective fields.  Watts up with that dude?

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Re: Amputating Contrary Data: Stock & Trade of Climate Alarmist

Post #50  Postby JIm Steele » Thu May 15, 2014 11:22 pm
To suggest climate had endangered the polar bears, the USGS amputated the data about polar bear movements so that the missing bears were interpreted as dead in their models instead of just having moved out of the study area. The data from collared bears would have shown that but that data was amputated.

http://landscapesandcycles.net/how-scie … bears.html



Who's kidding whom?  All you're doing is pointing back to your own self-aggrandized claims.
You won't even list specifically which paragraphs in their study, or which data sets you claim were manipulated.  You just "tell it like and it is" according to your mind, that's not science that's messianic.

MR. Steele, you have accused Ian Stirling and Andrew Derocher of scientific fraud.  I want to know exactly where this fraud was to have taken place.  
Please provide specific sources in the literature and or data sets, not other news releases and blogs.
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{For the record (12/15/14) Jim never has bothered to offer any of the information I've requested, then as today; 
No I haven't rejected any comments from Jim Steele, he just doesn't "lower" himself to offer any.  Trust me, I'm looking forward to hearing what he has to say for himself, you bet I'll share.}
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 PS about those Polar Bears
Summary of polar bear population status per 2013

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and other details
Ice-Loving Seals and the Loss of Sea Ice


Sep 24, 2013


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Our planet has plenty of proof that warming continues, 
and at a frightening pace - you just have to poke around.

A few highlights, first the South Pole:
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West Antarctic melt rate has tripled in last decade
December 2, 2014
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Changing Antarctic winds create new sea level threat
July 7, 2014
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Stronger winds may explain puzzling growth of sea ice in Antarctica, model shows
September 18, 2013
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Coastal Antarctic permafrost melting faster than expected: Arctic-like melt rates appearing in Coastal Antarctica
July 24, 2013
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Warm ocean drives most Antarctic ice shelf loss
June 13, 2013
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New insight into accelerating summer ice melt on the Antarctic Peninsula
April 14, 2013
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Summer melt season getting longer on Antarctic Peninsula
March 27, 2013
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Warm ocean currents cause majority of ice loss from Antarctica
April 25, 2012
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NASA study examines Antarctic sea ice increases
November 13, 2012
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Why Antarctic sea ice cover has increased under the effects of climate change
November 11, 2012
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Warm ocean currents cause majority of ice loss from Antarctica

April 25, 2012
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Now for an update on the North Pole happening:
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Variations in ice sheet height influence global climate
November 3, 2014
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2014 Arctic sea ice minimum sixth lowest on record
September 23, 2014
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Minor variations in ice sheet size can trigger abrupt climate change
August 18, 2014
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Melt ponds shine in NASA laser altimeter images
August 4, 2014
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Huge waves measured for first time in Arctic Ocean
July 29, 2014
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Arctic warming linked to fewer European and U.S. cold weather extremes, new study shows
June 15, 2014
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Reduced sea ice area also noted in winter
June 11, 2014
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Why Arctic ice is disappearing more rapidly than expected: River ice reveals new twist on Arctic melt
April 2, 2014
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Permafrost thaw exacerbates climate change
March 21, 2014
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Increase in Arctic cyclones is linked to climate change
February 18, 2014
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Bonus:
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Cause of global warming hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean
August 21, 2014
University of Washington
Observations show that the heat absent from the Earth's surface for more than a decade is plunging deep in the north and south Atlantic Ocean, and is part of a naturally occurring cycle. Subsurface warming in the ocean explains why global average air temperatures have flatlined since 1999, despite greenhouse gases trapping more solar heat at Earth's surface.
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This video does a heck of a job of putting it in perspective:
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2014 On Pace for Hottest Year


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