Stephan Lewandowsky together with James Risbey and Naomi Oreskes published a new study looking at how the contrarian PR campaign has influenced the way serious climate science was being done. Here's the abstract followed by some more information regarding the pause and a previous "Seepage" study.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015
The “Pause” in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science
Stephan Lewandowsky
University of Bristol and University of Western Australia
James S. Risbey
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania
Naomi Oreskes
Harvard University
Capsule
Contrarian discourse about a “pause” in global warming has found traction in climate science even though there is little evidence for anything but a fluctuation in the warming rate similar to earlier deviations from a longer-term trend.
Abstract
There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a “pause” in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test.
Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve.
This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-year (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends.
We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.
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Some previous posts dealing with another Lewandowsky paper:
5/14/15
5/17/15
Stephen Lewandowsky is a scientist, he sees the world through well trained eyes and is guided by an exacting rigor I could never come close to. I bring it up because I know that he's not pleased with my loose interpretation of "Seepage" and that I take it well beyond anything he's written.
But the thing is, I've been down here at street level watching the deliberate serial misrepresentation of serious science for decades now. It's been a thug's con job, while professional educated scientists went about their business believing the truth will prevail. Unfortunately it hasn't worked out that way.
So, while I have great respect for scientific rigor, I also understand that sometimes the more we focus on details, the blinder we get to the image or important lesson.
I believe there is a place for the following observations of various incidents where the bullying Republican/libertarian attack on science produced profound warping of the scientific process and their ability to disseminate important information that the public has a right to understand. I believe such actions fit right into the "Seepage" profile.
5/27/15
5/29/15
6/5/15
6/6/15
Instigators of "seepage" more Bush Administration suppression of climate science
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About that "hiatus"
Global warming 'hiatus' never happened, Stanford scientists say
By Ker Than - Stanford Report, September 17, 2015
A new study reveals that the evidence for a recent pause in the rate of global warming lacks a sound statistical basis. The finding highlights the importance of using appropriate statistical techniques and should improve confidence in climate model projections. Studies had suggested that global warming slowed or paused since 1998. More thorough research shows the global warming “hiatus” likely never happened.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/september/global-warming-hiatus-091715.html
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Posted on 8 June 2015 by dana1981
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Posted on 2 October 2011 by Rob Painting
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NASA-GISS Science Briefs
CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth's Temperature
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Something to consider, how we got here:
Merchants of Doubt
Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway
The troubling story of how a cadre of influential scientists have clouded public understanding of scientific facts to advance a political and economic agenda.
The U.S. scientific community has long led the world in research on public health, environmental science, and other issues affecting the quality of life. Our scientists have produced landmark studies on the dangers of DDT, tobacco smoke, acid rain, and global warming. But at the same time, a small yet potent subset of this community leads the world in vehement denial of these dangers.
In their new book, Merchants of Doubt, historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway explain how a loose–knit group of high-level scientists, with extensive political connections, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades. In seven compelling chapters addressing tobacco, acid rain, the ozone hole, global warming, and DDT, Oreskes and Conway roll back the rug on this dark corner of the American scientific community, showing how the ideology of free market fundamentalism, aided by a too-compliant media, has skewed public understanding of some of the most pressing issues of our era.
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