Sunday, October 28, 2012

David Rose's "Global warming stopped 16 years ago" - examined

WUWT is having great fun with a tabloid reporter's front page claim:

Report: Global warming stopped 16 years ago 
Posted on October 13, 2012 by Anthony Watts
A report in the UK Daily Mail reveals a Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it . . .
Along with David Rose's assertions:

  • The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
  • This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996


Rose manages this claim by misrepresenting a Met Office study and their data.  In the process ignoring what the Met Office had already explained to him:

“. . . The projections are probabilistic in nature, and no individual forecast should be taken in isolation. Instead, several decades of data will be needed to assess the robustness of the projections. 
“However, what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850. Depending on which temperature records you use, 2010 was the warmest year on record  for NOAA NCDC and NASA GISS, and the second warmest on record in HadCRUT3.” 
For the full text visit:

Considering all the nonsense going on at WUWT I wanted to post a portion of the Met Office's reply to Rose's latest attack.

Met Office in the Media: 
October 14, 2012 
"An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’  
It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme – you see our response to that one  here.  
To address some of the points in the article published today:
Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit. 
We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here. . . ."

Rose's claim is an example of a well known phenomena - 
anything can be argued convincingly when done in isolation.  

Rose uses a fiction writer's license to contort facts, along with tunnel vision and convoluted logic in order to fabricate a sellable story of his own imagination.  
He refuses to honestly describe the greater body of evidence.  

Consider Rose's phrase "aggregate global temperatures" grand concept, but then he micro focuses on one study's data while refusing explanations.

Besides "aggregate global temperatures"
What is that?  He doesn't explain it.

In the dictionary the definition for "aggregate" is: "formed by the conjunction or collection of particulars into a whole mass or sum; total; combined"

Given that, why does Rose ignore this aggregate global temperatures index?

Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue).  From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).
~ ~ ~ 

What pause Mr. Rose?
Why not look at the "aggregate of global warming observations" !
Consider these geophysical indicators:

Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming
By Joe Romm on Oct 15, 2012 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

The world has not stopped warming.  It's easy enough to get acquainted with the evidence.  But it requires a sincere intellectual effort.  I hope you make the effort. Here's an excellent source for information based on the science, a good place to start.  A repost of SkepticalScience's review that deserves your attention... if you seriously want to understand Rose's myth.


Rose and Curry Double Down on Global Warming Denial (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 23 October 2012 by dana1981 David Rose and Judith Curry have doubled down on literal global warming denial, as they continue to deny that the planet is warming. On 13 October 2012, Rose first published an article in the British newspaper the Mail on Sunday claiming that global warming…

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