Thursday, March 28, 2013

Marcott et al. 2013 - A Collection of Examinations and Reviews

Recently one of the big issues du jour has been Marcott et al. 2013: 
Science 8 March 2013  ~  Vol. 339 no. 6124 pp. 1198-1201  ~  DOI: 10.1126/science.1228026 
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 YearsShaun A. Marcott,  Jeremy D. Shakun,  Peter U. Clark,  Alan C. Mix
Anthony Watts has been posting so relentlessly it's been tough to keep score, though has been trying.  Last count?
Watts is Whopping Mad (Crazy) after Marcott et al - Must be the Heat!"...  three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen sixteen WUWT protest articles not counting the sleazeball's (approaching this might even beat the number of protests against the Lewandowsky et al paper).  The first few are touched on in this article. (March 20th) . . . {since then there's been yet another rehash} 
Besides, Sou's deconstruction of Watts' various claims, there have been a number of other informative articles written reviewing the paper; it's straights, weaknesses, what's important and what's disingenuous misdirection.

Tamino at does a very nice job of examining the substance of the paper and various complaints surrounding the paper:

Posted on March 22, 2013
There’s a new reconstruction of past temperature covering the last 11,300 years by Marcott et al. (2013, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, Vol. 339 no. 6124 pp. 1198-1201, DOI:10.1126/science.1228026). Data for their reconstructions, and the proxy data on which they’re based, are part of the supplementary materials. 
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Posted on March 22, 2013
In the last post we looked at the recent temperature reconstruction for the holocene, in particular the last 11,300 years, from Marcott et al. We noted that the changes over most of this very long time span were no bigger, but a lot slower, than the changes over the last century or so. That means trouble. . .
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Posted on March 23, 2013
We’ve already examined the big picture of global temperature according to the recent reconstruction for the holocene (in particular the last 11,300 years) from Marcott et al. We also took a close look at the recent uptick in temperatureNow let’s see about some of the regional differences indicated by these data. . .
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As far as I can tell Joe Romm was first to break the story and has some good observations:

Must-Have High-Resolution Charts: ‘Carbon Pollution Set To End Era Of Stable Climate’

"A stable climate enabled the development of modern civilization, global agriculture, and a world that could sustain a vast population. Now, the most comprehensive “Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years” ever done reveals just how stable the climate has been — and just how destabilizing manmade carbon pollution has been and will continue to be unless we dramatically reverse emissions trends.
Researchers at Oregon State University (OSU) and Harvard University published their findings today in the journal Science. Their funder, the National Science Foundation, explains in a news release: . . .
"This research vindicates the work of Michael Mann and others showing that recent warming is unprecedented in magnitude, speed, and cause during the past 2000 years — the so-called Hockey Stick — and in fact extends that back to at least 4000 years ago. I should say “vindicates for the umpteenth time” (see “Yet More Studies Back Hockey Stick“). "
But, when it comes to explaining what the paper is all about I found Jos Hagelaars article at the best.  Part of the reason, besides the quality of Jos' description itself, is the discussion following in the comments section - seems to me the most informed and interesting of the various websites I've looked at.  
"The two epochs of Marcott"
Guest post by Jos Hagelaars.

I had been meaning to write Jos Hagelaars asking for permission to repost his article, but then went through the trouble for me and given SkS's liberal sharing policy I can now do what I've been wanting for to do for a week - share the full article
{Though you'll have to visit OurChangingClimate for the discussion.}:

The two epochs of Marcott and the Wheelchair (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 26 March 2013 by JosHag This is a re-post from OurClimateChange The big picture (or as some call it: the Wheelchair): Global average temperature since the last ice age (20,000 BC) up to the not-too distant future (2100) under a middle-of-the-road emission scenario. Figure 1: The temperature…

1 comment:

Jim said...

Hmm, good job! This is really something!