Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises (2013)

{edited 9:30am - 12/8/2013}

There's a new report hot off the National Academies Press.  What can I say, it paints a troubling picture of where our society's failure of stewardship for our one and only planet's biosphere is leading us.

As a spectator who remembers his young adulthood of adventure and discovery in the world of the 70s, I'm heartbroken at the degradation caused by the contempt so many display for our natural "environment" and the prevailing disregard for any "stewardship responsibility" towards our planet.  We humans have become a lazy bunch and adapt to change too easily and too many seem oblivious to all the natural wonders and wide open stretches of life-supporting biosphere that have disappeared over the past decades, to say nothing of the past couple centuries.

Back in the 70s a lot of global warming science details were educated speculation.  Backed by serious science for sure, and the bottom-line was solid if simple:  increasing our atmosphere's insulating ability would lead to warming our planet. and that such a warming will have significant impacts upon our climate, aka. global heat distribution engine, the thing that sustains our lives and life styles.

Here we are after decades of hollow assurances and PR crazy-making from the likes of the Wattzers and McIntyres fueled by certain politically motivated "think tanks" such as Heartland Institute with their fancy word games and emotional manipulation and demonizing of everyone who doesn't parrot their message (which is devoid of any interest in learning) - well folks, the speculation has become reality before our eyes and the future promises hard times like none of us have ever known.  Yet the climate science denialists just keep getting shriller and more vicious toward decent people, while the public allows them to get away with it, probably because they have too many worries and other priorities already.

Well the beat goes on folks, here's but the latest report... with many more to come.

But, what good are all these reports and repeated warnings so long as we collectively refuse to face the issue and learn about it in a serious rational manner, and then start taking substantive action?

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change:

Anticipating Surprises (2013)

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18373

Authors

Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts;
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate;
Division on Earth and Life Studies;
National Research Council

Description

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain -- there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible?

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior.

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

The table of contents

• Front Matteri-xii 

• Summary1-14 

• 1 Introduction15-30 

• 2 Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern31-100 

• 3 Areas of Concern for Humans from Abrupt Changes101-116 

• 4 The Way Forward117-136 

• References137-184 

• Appendix A--Biographical Sketches of Committee Members