Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Ignoring the IPCC

I've been going over a video that was recently (Nov 2, 2014) released by a relatively newly minted, but already notorious climate science contrarian who hides behind a cloak of feigned interest in science, while bashing every climatologist he can.  A protege' of Anthony Watts no less.  But, I'm getting ahead of myself, since there are still some hours left to go before that project will be ready to post.  

In any event, carefully listening to his words and the misch mash of partial truths woven together with pure fabrication, followed up by me tracking down the man's claims and assertions has me revisiting quite a few climate studies. In particular, there is the IPCC with it's cornucopia of information, not perfect, but as good as humans (or their endeavors) can hope to be.  A sincere serious educated effort to collect and share the full scope of up to date scientific climatological information.


I have been deeply disappointed by the various 'dog-whistle' attacks on the notion of "scientific consensus" (that would be the collective educated understanding) - that in turn has inspired me to share the following index of two of IPCC's recent reports one from Working Group One that deals with the physical basis of manmade climate change,  the other Working Group Three which deals with Mitigation of Climate Change.  


I do so because it reveals {well you would also have to spend some time looking at the chapters themselves to get the full impact} that climatologists are indeed looking at the full spectrum evidence and just as importantly that honest skepticism is alive and well within the scientific community.  Something that certainly can't be said for the likes of these Wattsonians and their one-directional skepticism.


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WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS
Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment
A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail.
Note:
The final draft Report, dated 7 June 2013, of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" was accepted but not approved in detail by the 12th Session of Working Group I and the 36th Session of the IPCC on 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. It consists of the full scientific and technical assessment undertaken by Working Group I.
The Report has to be read in conjunction with the document entitled “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report - Changes to the underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment” to ensure consistency with the approved Summary for Policymakers (IPCC-XXVI/Doc.4) and presented to the Panel at its 36th Session. This document lists the changes necessary to ensure consistency between the full Report and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved line-by-line by Working Group I and accepted by the Panel at the above- mentioned Sessions.
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WORKING GROUP I – TWELFTH SESSION Stockholm, 23-26 September 2013
WG-I: 12 /Doc. 2b, CH10
(12.VIII.2013) Agenda Item: 5 ENGLISH ONLY
WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR5), CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS
Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional - Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment
=====================
Date of Draft: 7 June 2013
Table of Contents
Executive Summary.......................................…….......................................... 3
  1. 10.1  Introduction ................................................................................. 8 
  1. 10.2  Evaluation of Detection and Attribution Methodologies .......... 8
    10.2.1 The Context of Detection and Attribution ..................................... 9 
Box 10.1: How Attribution Studies Work ...................................................... 11
10.2.2 Time-Series Methods, Causality and Separating Signal from Noise ........... 13 
10.2.3 Methods Based on General Circulation Models and Optimal Fingerprinting ... 14 
10.2.4 Single-Step and Multi-Step Attribution and the Role of the Null Hypothesis ...... 15
10.3 Atmosphere and Surface................................................................................... 16
10.3.1 Temperature..................................................................................................... 16
Box 10.2: The Sun’s Influence on the Earth’s Climate ......................................... 22
10.3.2 Water Cycle........................................................................................................ 31
10.3.3 Atmospheric Circulation and Patterns of Variability .................................... 34
10.4  Changes in Ocean Properties ......................................................................... 37
10.4.1 Ocean Temperature and Heat Content ......................................................... 37 
10.4.2 Ocean Salinity and Freshwater Fluxes........................................................ 39 
10.4.3 Sea Level ........................................................................................................ 40 
10.4.4 Oxygen and Ocean acidity ........................................................................... 41 
10.5  Cryosphere .................................................................................................. 42
10.5.1 Sea Ice.......................................................................................................... 42 
10.5.2 Ice Sheets, Ice Shelves, and Glaciers ............................................................. 44 
10.5.3 Snow Cover and Permafrost .......................................................................... 46 
10.6  Extremes.......................................................................................................... 46
10.6.1 Attribution of Changes in Frequency/Occurrence and Intensity of Extremes .... 46 
10.6.2 Attribution of Weather and Climate Events ...................................................... 51
10.7 Multi Century to Millennia Perspective .......................................................... 54
10.7.1 Causes of Change in Large-Scale Temperature over the Past Millennium....... 55 
10.7.2 Changes of Past Regional Temperature ........................................................... 57 
10.7.3 Summary: Lessons from the Past .................................................................... 58
10.8 Implications for Climate System Properties and Projections .......................... 58
10.8.1 Transient Climate Response ................................................................................ 59 
10.8.2 Constraints on Long Term Climate Change and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity .. 60 
10.8.3 Consequences for Aerosol Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake .......................... 65 
10.8.4 Earth System Properties ..................................................................................... 66
10.9 Synthesis ............................................................................................................... 67
10.9.1 Multi-variable approaches................................................................................ 67
10.9.2 Whole Climate System..................................................................................... 68
FAQ 10.1: Climate is Always Changing. How do We Determine the Causes of Observed Changes?... 69 
FAQ 10.2: When will Human Influences on Climate Become Obvious on Local Scales? ...................... 71 
References .................................................................................................................... 73 Tables.............................................................................................................................. 96 
Figures ........................................................................................................................ 106
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Also see:
WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS
Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment 


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Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change
Chapter 5
Drivers, Trends and Mitigation



Final Draft Chapter 5 IPCC WGIII AR5
Contents
Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 4 5.1 
Introduction and overview ...................................................................................... 7 5.2 
Global trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and short‐lived specie....... 9
5.2.1 Sectoral and regional trends in GHG emissions ............................................. 9 5.2.2 
Trends in Aerosols and Aerosol/Tropospheric Ozone Precursors .......................... 12 5.2.3 
Emissions uncertainty ............................................................................................. 13
5.2.3.1 Methods for emissions uncertainty estimation........................................... 13 5.2.3.2 
Fossil carbon dioxide emissions uncertainty ........................................................ 14 5.2.3.3 
Other greenhouse gases and non‐fossil fuel carbon dioxide .............................. 15 5.2.3.4 
Total greenhouse gas uncertainty .................................................................... 16 5.2.3.5 
Sulphur dioxide and aerosols.............................................................................. 16 5.2.3.6 
Uncertainties in emission trends ........................................................................ 16 5.2.3.7 
Uncertainties in consumption‐based carbon dioxide emission accounts ................... 17
5.3 Key drivers of global change ........................................................................... 18 5.3.1 
Drivers of global emissions.................................................................................... 18 5.3.1.1 
Key drivers ........................................................................................................... 20 5.3.2 
Population and demographic structure ................................................................ 23 5.3.2.1 
Population trends ................................................................................................. 23 5.3.2.2 
Trends in demographic structure ......................................................................... 24 5.3.3 
Economic growth and development ..................................................................... 26 5.3.3.1 
Production trends .................................................................................................. 26 5.3.3.2 
Consumption trends ............................................................................................. 29 5.3.3.3 
Structural change ................................................................................................. 31 5.3.4 
Energy demand and supply ................................................................................. 33 5.3.4.1 
Energy demand ................................................................................................... 33 5.3.4.2 
Energy efficiency and Intensity .......................................................................... 34 5.3.4.3 
Carbon‐intensity, the energy mix, and resource availability ............................. 37 5.3.5 
Other key sectors ................................................................................................ 38 5.3.5.1 Transport............................................................................................................. 42 5.3.5.2 Buildings.............................................................................................................. 42 5.3.5.3 
Industry ................................................................................................................ 43
5.3.5.4 Agriculture, Forestry, Other Land Use ..................................................... 43

5.3.5.5 Waste ....................................................................................................... 45 5.4 
Production and Trade patterns............................................................................. 46 5.4.1 
Embedded carbon in trade....................................................................................... 46 5.4.2 
Trade and productivity ............................................................................................ 48 5.5 
Consumption and behavioural change ................................................................... 49 5.5.1 
Impact of behaviour on consumption and emissions ............................................. 50 5.5.2 
Factors driving change in behaviour ....................................................................... 51 5.6 
Technological change .............................................................................................. 52 5.6.1 
Contribution of technological change to mitigation ............................................... 52 5.6.1.1 
Technological change: a drive towards higher or lower emissions? ...................... 53 5.6.1.2 
Historical patterns of technological change ............................................................ 53 5.6.2 
The rebound effect..................................................................................................... 54 5.6.3 
Infrastructure choices and lock in ............................................................................. 55 5.7 
Co‐benefits and adverse side‐effects of mitigation actions ...................................... 55 5.7.1 
Co‐benefits ................................................................................................................... 57 5.7.2 
Adverse side‐effects .................................................................................................... 58 5.7.3
 Complex issues in using co‐benefits and adverse side‐effects to inform policy.........59 5.8 
The system perspective: linking sectors, technologies and consumption patterns.....59 5.9 
Gaps in knowledge and data .......................................................................... 61 5.10 
Frequently Asked Questions....................................................................................... 63 
References ...........................................................................………………………......... 65
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http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

IPCC 5th Assessment Report - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

Click to on the link to download the chapter, graphics, authors etc.
  1. Front Matter - 0.8MB
  2. Summary for Policymakers - 2.3MB
  3. Technical Summary - 18.1MB
  4. Frequently Asked Questions - 30MB

Chapters

  1. Introduction - 4.5MB
  2. Observations: Atmosphere and Surface - 38.3MB
  3. Observations: Ocean - 48.3MB
  4. Observations: Cryosphere - 12.8MB
  5. Information from Paleoclimate Archives - 10.8MB
  6. Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles - 23.8MB
  7. Clouds and Aerosols - 19.2MB
  8. Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing - 18.9MB
  9. Evaluation of Climate Models - 24.6MB
  10. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional - 10.4MB
  11. Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability - 14.1MB
  12. Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility - 36.6MB
  13. Sea Level Change - 32.9MB
  14. Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change - 10.6MB
  15. Annexes

    1. Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections - 44.7MB
    2. Climate System Scenario Tables - 1.5MB
    3. Glossary - 0.4MB
    4. Acronyms - 0.1MB
    5. Contributors to the WGI Fifth Assessment Report - 0.2MB
    6. Expert Reviewers of the WGI Fifth Assessment Report - 0.5MB

    1. Changes to the Underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment (IPCC-XXVI/Doc.4) 0.2MB
    2. List of Substantive Edits (30 January 2014) 0.5MB
    3. Index 0.2MB
    4. Errata 3.1MB (Updated 26/09/2014)

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