Wednesday, May 18, 2016

ncdave4life IPCC "Expert" Reviewer and battle of the Lists

Looking at ncdave's next comments over at CC, he confides, "Disclosure: I was an Expert Reviewer on the IPCC's AR5 Report." and we come to find out we're dealing with Dave Burton creator of the faux-science "sealevel.info" blog.  The guy believes Heartland is the scientific gold standard.  Come on, look at their mission statement, it has nothing to do with understanding our planet.  Policy advocacy is all they are concerned with.  That's not science, that's power-politics PR games.  

Dave's big on conspiracy ideation against established science and he believes Heartland's incestuous little NIPCC is more reliable than the thousands of reports and studies that have gone into the IPCC reports.  And he's got the list to prove it, that's why I've included AGW Observer's 'Anti-AGW papers debunked' list after our excursion into Mr. Burton's expert comment.

You may ask what qualifies Dave to be an IPCC "Expert Reviewer"?  Turns out, he doesn't need any qualification, just enough interest to sign up with the IPCC.  As Tim Lambert explained “Expert reviewer for the IPCC” doesn't mean that they asked him to review material – all it means is that he asked to see the draft report. The only real requirement to be a reviewer is to sign an agreement not to publicly comment on the draft.” (see http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/05/09/you-too-can-be-a-leading-clima/) - or to be formal:
1. First Order Draft: Expert Review 
… Experts who have not received an invitation but would like to review the draft are able to advise the Working Group Technical Support Units of this. Expert reviewers are issued with a username and password to access the first order drafts online.- See more at: https://www.nzclimatechangecentre.org/ipcc/expert_review#sthash.lMdGC94d.dpuf
A little investigation at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/drafts/Ch00_WG1AR5FOD_RevCommResponses_Final.pdf revealed that Dave Burton is credited with one comment, the IPCC's response is must reading.  (Actually two, but the first was an error message.)

IPCC Review - Comment number 0-12
(Mr. Burton writes)

The report contains multiple citations of studies depending on GISS ModelE, but inexplicably omits the critical analysis of GISS model E performance in Scafetta's latest papers:
N. Scafetta, “Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications”. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72, 951–970 (2010), doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2010.04.015 http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/scafetta-JSTP2.pdf

N. Scafetta, “Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, in press. DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.12.005. http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/Scafetta_models_comparison_ATP.pdf

In these papers it is argued that the global surface temperature presents clear evidences of a strong harmonic component associated to astronomical cycles. All climate models used by the IPCC have failed to reproduce these harmonics. Here's an extended comment/summary of the above papers: http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/01/10/global-warming-no-natural-predictable-climate-change/ 

Here's one in Swedish, but you can translate it with Google translator: http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF- 8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theclimatescam.se%2F2012%2F01%2F17%2Fmer-harmonisk- analys%2F 
[David Burton, USA]
__________________________
IPCC Response:

Noted -- the papers referred to by the reviewer clearly state that there is no known physical mechanism to explain the proposed celestial modulation of climate, and so this is not included in the physically-based models whose results are assessed in this report, in particular in Chapter 9 "Evaluation of Climate Models". 

More specifically, the second paper by Scafetta referred to by the reviewer claims that not only the GISS but all climate models assessed in the IPCC reports significantly underestimate the magnitude of 20 and 60 years cycles apparently seen in the reconstructed global temperature. 

However, irrespective of whether the above mentioned periodicities are real or an artifact of the statistical analysis, this fact alone does not challenge validity of current climate models. 

Please note that the role of various known forcings is assessed comprehensively in Chapter 10 of the report.

 _________________________________________________
Then come the Lists.

 Dave has put together one of those lists of scientific papers that purport to show that sea level rise is a myth.  But, it includes such familiar red flags as Morner and Scafetta.  It also included studies where the authors don't imply what Dave claims they do, more on that in another post.
  
Then he recommends good ol' Poptech's list of confusion.  Obviously, Dave has a very low opinion of scientists and the state of science, going so far as to quote John Christy:“What passes for science includes opinion, arguments-from-authority, dramatic press releases, and fuzzy notions of consensus generated by preselected groups. This is not science.” (Sept. 20, 2012).  The irony is that from looking over Sealevel.info, this is a perfect assessment of what it offers up, self-certain arguments from assumed authority, dramatic rhetoric, and a display of faux science in an echo-chamber that ignores tons of available information.

 I figure it's only right that I share this list of papers that will link folks to detailed reviews and critiques of such boilerplate arguments that folks like Dave Burton aka ncdave4life bandy about.  Reviews by genuine experts who understand the science and who are into learning - rather that hell bent on preserving a political persuasion.  Although you can find a simpler, yet substantive, review of science contrarian myths at: http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?f=taxonomy
_________________________________________________________

AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming


Anti-AGW papers debunked

(M) = mainstream paper but has been used one way or the other to advance anti-AGW views. Abs = abstract.Give feedback for this page here.
  • Akasofu (2010) “On the recovery from the Little Ice Age” [Abs, Full]
  • Akasofu (2013) “On the Present Halting of Global Warming” [Abs, Full]
    • Nuccitelli et al. (2013) “Comment on: Akasofu, S.-I. On the Present Halting of Global Warming. Climate 2013, 1, 4–11” [Abs, Full]
  • Armstrong et al. (2008) “Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit” [Abs, Full]
    • Amstrup et al. (2009) “Rebuttal of “Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit”” [Abs, Full]
  • Beck (2007) “180 Years of atmospheric CO2 gas analysis by chemical methods” [Abs, Full]
  • Carter (2008) “Knock, knock: where is the evidence for dangerous human-caused global warming?”[Abs, Full]
    • Ward (2010) “Comment: ‘Knock, Knock: Where is the Evidence for Dangerous Human-Caused Global Warming?’ by Robert M. Carter” [Full]
  • Chase et al. (2006) “Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context?” [Abs, Full]
    • Connolley (2008) “Comment on “Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context?” by Thomas N. Chase et al.” [Abs, Full]
  • Chilingar et al. (2008) “Cooling of Atmosphere Due to CO2 Emission” [Abs]
  • Chou et al. (2002) “Comments on “The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?””[Abs, Full]
    • Chambers et al. (2002) “Reply” [Abs, Full]
  • Douglass et al. (2007) “A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions” [Abs, Full]
  • Douglass & Knox (2012) “Ocean heat content and Earthʼs radiation imbalance. II. Relation to climate shifts” [Abs, Full]
  • Dyck et al. (2007) “Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor?” [Abs, Full]
    • Stirling et al. (2008) “Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay” [Abs, Full]
  • Frauenfeld et al. (2011) “A reconstruction of annual Greenland ice melt extent, 1784–2009” [Abs]
  • Friis-Christensen & Lassen (1991) “Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate” [Abs, Full]
    • Damon & Peristykh (1999) “Solar cycle length and 20th Century northern hemisphere warming: Revisited” [Abs]
    • Laut & Gundermann (2000) “Is There a Correlation between Solar Cycle Lengths and Terrestrial Temperatures? Old Claims and New Results” [Abs+Full]
    • Damon & Laut (2004) “Pattern of strange errors plagues solar activity and terrestrial climate data” [Abs, Full]
  • Gerlich & Tscheuschner (2009) “Falsification of the atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effects within the frame of physics” [Abs, Full]
    • Halpern et al. (2010) “Comment on “Falsification of the atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effects within the frame of physics”” [Abs]
  • Humlum et al. (2013) “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” [Abs]
    • Richardson (2013) “Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” by Humlum, Stordahl and Solheim” [Abs]
    • Masters & Benestad (2013) “Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature”” [Abs]
    • Kern & Leuenberger (2013) “Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51-69.]: Isotopes ignored” [Abs]
  • Idso (1980) “The Climatological Significance of a Doubling of Earth’s Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration” [Abs]
    • Hansen et al. (1981) “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide” [Abs, Full]
    • Ramanathan (1981) “The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in the CO2 Climate Problem”[Abs, Full]
    • Cess & Potter (1984) “A commentary on the recent CO2-climate controversy” [Abs, Full]
    • Schneider (1984) “‘Natural experiments’ and CO2-induced Climate Change: The controversy drags on — An editorial” [Abs, Full]
  • Idso (1982) “A surface air temperature response function for earth’s atmosphere” [Abs, Full]
    • Cess & Potter (1984) “A commentary on the recent CO2-climate controversy” [Abs, Full]
  • Idso (1987) “A clarification of my position on the CO2/climate connection” [Abs]
    • Potter et al. (1987) “A clarification of certain issues related to the CO2—Climate problem” [Abs, Full]
  • Khilyuk & Chilingar (2006) “On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?” [Abs]
    • Aeschbach-Hertig (2006) “Rebuttal of “On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?” by L. F. Khilyuk and G. V. Chilingar” [Abs]
  • Klotzbach et al. (2009) “An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere” [Abs]
  • Knorr (2009) (M) “Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?” [Abs, Full]
  • Lassen & Friis-Christensen (1995) “Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate” [Abs]
    • Laut & Gundermann (2000) “Is There a Correlation between Solar Cycle Lengths and Terrestrial Temperatures? Old Claims and New Results” [Abs+Full]
    • Laut (2003) “Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations”[Abs, Full]
    • Damon & Laut (2004) “Pattern of strange errors plagues solar activity and terrestrial climate data” [Abs, Full]
  • Lassen & Friis-Christensen (2000) [Abs]
    • Laut (2003) “Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations”[Abs, Full]
    • Damon & Laut (2004) “Pattern of strange errors plagues solar activity and terrestrial climate data” [Abs, Full]
  • Lewis (2013) “An objective Bayesian, improved approach for applying optimal fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity” [Abs]
  • Lindzen et al. (2001) “Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?” [Abs, Full]
    • Hartmann & Michelsen (2002) “No Evidence for Iris” [Abs, Full]
    • Harrison (2002) “Comments on “Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?”” [Abs, Full]
    • Lin et al. (2002) “The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?” [Abs, Full]
    • Fu et al. (2002) “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris feedback?”[Abs, Full]
    • Del Genio & Kovari (2002) “Climatic Properties of Tropical Precipitating Convection under Varying Environmental Conditions” [Abs, Full]
    • Chambers et al. (2002) “Reply” [Abs, Full]
    • Lin et al. (2003) “The decadal tropical mean radiation data and the Iris hypothesis” [Abs]
    • Lin et al. (2004) “Examination of the Decadal Tropical Mean ERBS Nonscanner Radiation Data for the Iris Hypothesis” [Abs, Full]
    • Rapp et al. (2005) “An Evaluation of the Proposed Mechanism of the Adaptive Infrared Iris Hypothesis Using TRMM VIRS and PR Measurements” [Abs, Full]
  • Lindzen & Choi (2009) “On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data” [Abs, Full]
    • Trenberth et al. (2010) “Relationships between tropical sea surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere radiation” [Abs, Full]
    • Lin et al. (2010) “Can climate sensitivity be estimated from short-term relationships of top-of-atmosphere net radiation and surface temperature?” [Abs]
    • Murphy (2010) “Constraining climate sensitivity with linear fits to outgoing radiation” [Abs]
    • Dessler (2010) “A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade” [Abs, full]
    • [BLOG] AGW Observer
    • [BLOG] RealClimate
    • [BLOG] RealClimate 2
    • [BLOG] RealClimate 3
    • [BLOG] Dot Earth
  • Lindzen & Choi (2011) “On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications”[Abs, full]
    • Dessler (2011) “Cloud variations and the Earth’s energy budget” [Abs, full]
  • Lu (2009) “Cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules adsorbed on ice surfaces: Implications for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change” [Abs]
  • Loehle (2007) “A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies” [Abs, Full]
  • Loehle (2009) “Cooling of the global ocean since 2003” [Abs]
  • Lyman et al. (2006) (M) “Recent cooling of the upper ocean” [Abs, Full]
    • Willis et al. (2007) “Correction to “Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean”” [Full]
    • Willis et al. (2009) “In Situ Data Biases and Recent Ocean Heat Content Variability” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] Earth Observatory
  • Marsh & Svensmark (2000) “Low Cloud Properties Influenced by Cosmic Rays” [Abs, Full]
    • Laut (2003) “Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations”[Abs, Full]
  • McIntyre & McKitrick (2003) “Corrections to the Mann et. al.(1998) proxy data base and northern hemispheric average temperature series” [Abs]
    • Juckes et al. (2007) “Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation”[Abs, Full]
    • Wahl & Ammann (2007) “Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence” [Abs, Full]
  • McIntyre & McKitrick (2005) “Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance” [Abs, Full]
    • von Storch & Zorita (2005) “Comment on “Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance” by S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick” [Abs, Full]
    • Mann et al. (2007) “Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods” [Abs, Full]
    • Wahl & Ammann (2007) “Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence” [Abs, Full]
  • McIntyre & McKitrick (2005) “The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications” [Abs, Full]
    • Juckes et al. (2007) “Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation”[Abs, Full]
    • Wahl & Ammann (2007) “Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence” [Abs, Full]
  • McKitrick & Michaels (2007) “Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data” [Abs, Full]
  • McLean et al. (2009) “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” [Abs, Full]
  • McShane & Wyner (2010) “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” [Full]
    • Rougier (2010) “Discussion of “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by McShane & Wyner” [Full]
    • Smerdon (2010) “Discussion of “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by McShane & Wyner” [Full]
    • Davis & Liu (2010) “Discussion to McShane and Wyner paper, “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies”” [Full]
    • Schmidt et al. (2010) “A comment on “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by McShane & Wyner” [Full]
    • Tingley (2010) “Spurious predictions with random time series: The LASSO in the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions. A Discussion of “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by Blakeley B. McShane and Abraham J. Wyner” [Full]
    • Rajaratnam & Craigmile (2010) “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” Discussion of the Paper by McShane and Wyner” [Full]
    • Haran & Urban (2010) “Discussion of “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by McShane and Wyner” [Full]
    • Berliner (2010) “Discussion” [Full]
    • Wahl & Ammann (2010) “Comment on “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?” by McShane and Wyner” [Full]
    • Nychka & Li (2010) “Discussion to: “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies” McShane and Wyner” [Full]
    • Kaplan (2010) “Discussion of: “A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?”” [Full]
    • [BLOG] Deltoid (see also comment section)
    • [BLOG] Rabett Run
    • [BLOG] Climate Progress
    • [BLOG] The Policy Lass
  • Miskolczi (2007) “Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres” [Abs, Full]
  • Newell & Dopplick (1980) “Questions Concerning the Possible Influence of Anthropogenic CO2 on Atmospheric Temperature” [Abs, Full]
    • Ramanathan (1981) “The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in the CO2 Climate Problem”[Abs, Full]
    • Cess & Potter (1984) “A commentary on the recent CO2-climate controversy” [Abs, Full]
  • Pallé et al. (2004) “Changes in Earth’s Reflectance over the Past Two Decades” [Abs, Full]
    • Wielicki et al. (2005) “Changes in Earth’s Albedo Measured by Satellite” [Abs, Full]
    • Evan et al. (2007) “Arguments against a physical long-term trend in global ISCCP cloud amounts” [Abs, Full]
    • Loeb et al. (2007) “Multi-Instrument Comparison of Top-of-Atmosphere Reflected Solar Radiation” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] Skeptical Science
  • Pallé et al. (2005) “A multi-data comparison of shortwave climate forcing changes” [Abs, Full]
    • Bender (2006) “Comment on ‘‘A multi-data comparison of shortwave climate forcing changes’’ by Palle´ et al.” [Full]
  • Pielke et al. (2007) “Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends” [Abs, Full]
    • Parker et al. (2009) “Comment on “Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends” by Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.” [Abs]
  • Samanta et al. (2010) (M) “Amazon forests did not green-up during the 2005 drought” [Abs]
  • Scafetta & West (2003) “Solar Flare Intermittency and the Earth’s Temperature Anomalies” [Abs, Full]
  • Scafetta & West (2005) “Estimated solar contribution to the global surface warming using the ACRIM TSI satellite composite” [Abs, Full]
    • Lean (2006) “Comment on “Estimated solar contribution to the global surface warming using the ACRIM TSI satellite composite” by N. Scafetta and B. J. West” [Abs]
    • Benestad & Schmidt (2009) “Solar trends and global warming” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] RealClimate
  • Scafetta & West (2006a) “Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming” [Abs, Full]
  • Scafetta & West (2006b) “Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record” [Abs, Full]
    • Benestad & Schmidt (2009) “Solar trends and global warming” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] RealClimate
  • Scafetta & West (2007) “Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600” [Abs, Full]
    • Benestad & Schmidt (2009) “Solar trends and global warming” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] RealClimate
  • Scafetta & West (2008) “Is climate sensitive to solar variability?” [Abs, Full]
    • Benestad & Schmidt (2009) “Solar trends and global warming” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] RealClimate
  • Scafetta & Willson (2009) “ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model” [Abs, Full]
    • Krivova et al. (2009) “ACRIM-gap and total solar irradiance revisited: Is there a secular trend between 1986 and 1996?” [Abs, Full]
    • [BLOG] Rabett Run
    • [BLOG] Skeptical Science
  • Schwartz (2007) (M) “Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system” [Abs, Full]
    • Foster et al. (2008) “Comment on ‘‘Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’’ by S. E. Schwartz” [Full]
    • Knutti et al. (2008) “Comment on ‘‘Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’’ by S. E. Schwartz” [Full]
    • Schwartz (2008) “Reply to comments by G. Foster et al., R. Knutti et al., and N. Scafetta on ‘‘Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’’” [Full]
    • [BLOG] Skeptical Science
    • [BLOG] James Annan
    • [BLOG] James Annan 2
    • [BLOG] Tamino
  • Schwartz et al. (2010) (M) [Abs, Full]
  • Shapiro et al. (2011) (M) [Abs, full]
  • Solomon et al. (2010) (M) [Abs]
  • Soon & Baliunas (2003) [Abs, Full]
    • Jones & Mann (2004) [Abs, Full]
    • Osborn & Briffa (2006) [Abs, Full]
    • Juckes et al. (2007) [Abs, Full]
  • Spencer et al. (2007) [Abs, full]
    • Lin et al. (2010) [Abs]
  • Spencer & Braswell (2008) [Abs, full]
  • Spencer & Braswell (2009) [Abs]
    • Lin et al. (2010) [Abs]
  • Spencer & Braswell (2010) [Abs, full]
  • Spencer & Braswell (2011) [Abs, full]
  • Svensmark & Friis-Christensen (1997) [Abs, Full]
  • Svensmark (1998) [Abs, Full]
  • Svensmark et al. (2009) [Abs, Full]
  • Thejll & Lassen (2000) [Abs, Full]
  • Tung & Zhou (2013) [Abs, Full]
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