UPDATE: I also sent Michael Tobis an fyi about this blog post. His response was friendly and constructive and it fits right into the Map vs. Territory Problem I'm struggling with, so I hope to return to it when I can.
In fairness I will share the following quotes from Dr. Tobis' interesting email.
Michael Tobis started with: I have to say that while I found the one instance of Klotzbach's work that I looked into very weak, that doesn't mean I disagree very much with this assertion, ...
and finished with: ... When I spoke of "Klotzbach" in my blog entries I was using scientific shorthand. I meant a specific paper we were discussing. I have not formed an opinion of Klotzbach as a person or a scientist, and I didn't mean anything ad hominem. I'm pretty sure James didn't either._____________________________________________
I did appreciate the comments by Hunter Cutting:
10 May 2018 at 10:24 PMThe role of the “AMO” vs anthropogenic forcings in driving the recent warming of SSTs is hotly debated. In this context, the leap this story takes in assigning responsibility for the recent acceleration of hurricane intensification on “natural climate phenomena” is completely unjustified._________________________
Worse the article contradicts itself on this very point. The last sentence says: “Teasing out the effects of the AMO from broader effects of global warming was beyond the scope of the current study.”
The finding that hurricanes are intensifying more rapidly is not new, but this is a welcome confirmation.
What’s not welcome is the commitment of a classic type two error – assigning responsibility to natural factors simply because you cannot “tease out” the impact of global warming.
Please see the recent report by the National Academy of Sciences “Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change,” that categorically rejects this approach as inappropriate. https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/extreme_weather.pdf
10 May 2018 at 10:58 PM