Reality check, deniable but unavoidable Geophysics of a warming planet

Pumphandle 2016

CarbonTracker

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH6fQh9eAQE

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August 31 an outfit called Investors.com under cover of the "Daily Business" wrote an editorial that no one had the guts to put their name behind.  Figures since it's such a perfect example of libelous criminal mischief and intellectual vandalism.  My initial read indicated some 24 talking points to build my case on.
  
I believe all too often timid professionally/politically constrained experts give aid and comfort to such deliberate misinformers by their obsessive public focus on fringe uncertainties -> rather than reminding everyone of the geophysical certainties we are dealing with here.  This latest example of malicious character assassination against Dr. Mann is an example of what such unrecognized seepage has accomplished these past decades.  

Before I begin my slog through that thing, I believe it's important to take a moment to look at the essence of what our planet's Global Heat and Moisture Distribution Engine is all about.  Starting point an unfortunate quote from that editorial:

CNN Newsroom host John Berman asked former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read point-blank whether climate change had affected the intensity of Hurricane Harvey. 

Read said he "probably wouldn't attribute (global warming to) what we're looking at here. This is not an uncommon occurrence to see storms grow and intensify rapidly in the western Gulf of Mexico. That is, as long as we've been tracking them, that has occurred.” 

{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Read - Navy meteorologist background.}

For the other side of that: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadly

Quite frankly it doesn’t matter what I, or some politically terrified official pronounces.  The outside reality is that our planet has begun a radical transition towards a much much warmer climate regime.  Simply because measuring and putting exact attribution numbers on it is exceedingly difficult, doesn't justify ignoring the geophysics unfolding under our noses! 

* Global warming is definitely directly related to that hot Gulf of Mexico waters that fed an explosive intensification of a tropical storm.

* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that the atmosphere is holding more moisture and making it available for storm systems such as Harvey to collect and dump, while adding energy to the system.

* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that our Jet Stream has gotten weirder and is currently causing the stalling and reversal of Harvey’s northward movement.

* Global warming is definitely directly related to the fact that sea level is rising and thus adding substantially to damaging storm surges.

* Global warming is definitely directly related to the "Brown Ocean Effect" that continued feeding moisture and energy into Harvey and certain other hurricanes after making land fall.

If I’m mistaken it should be simple enough to explain my error in a constructive manner.

If you can’t do that, perhaps you should consider allowing those points to take prominence over nitpicking fringe uncertainties and the struggle for statistical perfection.

Phil Klotzbach's response to Citizenschallenge Examined - The Map vs. Territory Problem

Phil Klotzbach gave me his permission to share this email and I thank him.  I haven’t changed any of his words, I simply follow along and share my responses as I try fleshing out this Map vs. Territory Problem I'm trying to explain.  By that I mean the attitude that unless you can statistically prove it, it doesn't exist and should be dismissed, even though the physics dictates it must exist and had better be taken seriously.

There’s also the seepage issue, a sort of self-censorship where certain information is being withheld while other information is given inordinate weight - following the contrarian script rather than focusing on conveying the physical reality.

Dr. Klotzbach's words are in Georgia font, while mine are in Verdana.  

_____________________________________________________________

From: Phil Klotzbach
Date: Sat, Sep 9, 2017 at 6:51 AM
Subject: Re: fyi, just posted "Surely you’re joking Dr. Klotzbach, no hurricane global warming connection"
To:  citizenschallenge @ gmail 

           Dr. Klotzbach:  Apologies for a delay, but it's been a very hectic past few days.  

No apology needed, considering your lead author of the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science’s seasonal hurricane forecast, I imagine you’re probably running on four hours of sleep these past few weeks.  I was surprised to receive any response, let alone such a thoughtful one.  I don’t mind admitting I’m honored and thank you for your time and effort.

Explaining your position will allow me to explain mine, which I believe is compatible with the need for vigorous science in all it’s maddening details minutia and uncertainties.

______________________________________________________________________________

Dr. Klotzbach:  In answer to your questions, I have spent over 15 years working with historical hurricane data, primarily for the Atlantic but over the last several years with global data, so I do not make statements like I did on NPR and many other news outlets without having spent much time understanding the nuances of the technology going into the analyses.  

I acknowledge your expertise, in fact both Drs. Mann and Tobis made a point of telling me your professional reputation among experts is solid.  Me?  I’m a layperson and my hobby for the past 45 years has been learning about Earth sciences.  Evolution and our planet’s global heat and moisture distribution engine have been of particular fascination to me.  

My position is that while our actual living breathing climate engine is infinitely complex, it follows fundamental and well understood laws - which I believe are too often left behind in favor of obsessing over trying to explain uncertainties that in the end are more irrelevant than not, and only serve to sooth people into complacent disconnect from the changes happening underfoot.  This is what my Map vs. Territory Problem is all about, allow me to explain.

Surely you’re joking Dr. Klotzbach, no hurricane global warming connection?

updated Sept 8, 1:30 PM

Or,  'Did Dr. Klotzbach willfully misrepresent geophysical facts?'

After finishing my previous post I sent Drs. Trenberth, Francis, Mann an email letting them know about my blog post.  

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I also sent an email to Dr Klotzbach regarding this post. 

This morning I received a lengthy email from him, considering my terse introductory email to him and this blog post, it was a wonderfully constructive succinct note outlining his position and I want to openly thank him for that and his civility.

More importantly it has enabled me to reset my attitude toward him and return my thoughts to my real focus.  Namely, trying to explicate the Map vs. Territory Problem.  

His note provides an excellent vehicle to help explain myself, I hope.  

More on that later.  

(September 9, 2017)

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I appreciate that I have a bit of in-your-face about my writing and have offended where none was intended, so this morning I was surprised and gratified that all three responded with valuable thoughts and links to papers that would help round out my understanding of their disagreement.  I would have liked to reproduce the email string, but it was a private dialogue, though I was given permission to write about it.  I was able to spend much of the rest of day reading through their various links in preparation for writing that post.

But, then came the evening's news and Phil Klotzbach blindsided me with a response to a question which sounded like it came straight from a Trump Administration talking head, rather than a serious scientist.  

His response goes way beyond the Map vs. Territory Problem, and raises questions about political bias coloring a trusted expert’s opinion to the point of willful deception.  Specifically his glib dismissal of global warming’s influence on hurricanes is in defiance of basic geophysical laws and the people's need to know!

(At 2:30) NPR asks:” Does climate change have anything to do with either the intensity of the storms or the frequency of the storms as we are experiencing them this season?”

Phil Klotzbach: “You know I mean the Atlantic actually the last years was below normal for hurricane activity and actually September’s of 2013, 13, 15, 16 were all very quiet.  Obviously this is a far cry from that, this has been an incredibly active last few weeks, but historically September is the most active month of the season.  

“When it comes to climate changes impacts on the storms though, most theoretical models really don’t see any change in the frequency, perhaps even going down a little bit.  They say maybe the storms will get slightly more intense.  But I look at the observations, I don’t do much theoretical modeling and in the observations it’s just really too hard to say.”

Powerful Storms Raise Questions About The Science Of Hurricanes

Heard on All Things Considered  -  September 7, 2017

NPR's Robert Siegel talks with Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, about the science of hurricanes and what makes Hurricane Irma so unusual.

http://www.npr.org/2017/09/07/549250104/powerful-storms-raise-questions-about-the-science-of-hurricanes

At it’s most innocent we have an example of something I’ve already mentioned, a people desperately clinging to dreams of yesterday’s normal, like a child desperately clinging to her mother as they're being inexorably torn apart for all time.  Unfortunately, what we refuse to comprehend will harm, nay destroy all we’ve come to love about this world.

Klotzbach’s first paragraph reveals a sadly one dimensional scorekeeper’s mentality that does nothing to help inform people about our situation. 

Explaining why Dr. Trenberth owes CBC meteorologist an apology.

The Map vs Territory problem.

Why does the quest for numerical certainty trump acknowledging the fundamental physics unfolding in front of us?  I understand scientists need to be dedicated to numerically “Mapping” out physical reality with exacting precision.  No detail can be left unexplored.  Still, in the end all this effort is so we can better understand our physical world, the “Territory” if you will.

Please consider, when it comes to explaining climate science understanding to an under-informed collection of leaders and citizens, is it a service or disservice to constantly return the discussion to uncertainties rather than focus on all we do know and the conclusions that can be drawn with great certainty?  

Minutia that in itself requires additional background knowledge to appreciate.  What good does it do? What sort of abuses has it opened scientists up to?  Consider the case of Dr. Mann, one simply needs to read the caveats within those early papers and all the contrived charges made against him and the work of his team evaporate.  But, did anyone take notice?  

Nope, the contrarians fabricated a fantastical storyline, which has dominated the public discussion on both sides ever since. Exploding trivia into a show stopper.  That was a result of a failure of imagination and failure to convey all you do know in a way that presents folks with a fundamental understanding and the critical thinking skills to see through the contrarian deceptions.  

Instead, in the public arena, soberly learning about climate understanding has been left behind for preoccupations with endlessly playing defense against a repetition of contrived childish politicized nonsensical fabrications that have been embraced by all too many.

What about the sins of omission?   By that I mean not acknowledging fundamental physics, which we know act according to their own exacting and unchanging laws, whether we understand every detail of their behaviors or not.