Phil Klotzbach's response to Citizenschallenge Examined - The Map vs. Territory Problem

Phil Klotzbach gave me his permission to share this email and I thank him.  I haven’t changed any of his words, I simply follow along and share my responses as I try fleshing out this Map vs. Territory Problem I'm trying to explain.  By that I mean the attitude that unless you can statistically prove it, it doesn't exist and should be dismissed, even though the physics dictates it must exist and had better be taken seriously.

There’s also the seepage issue, a sort of self-censorship where certain information is being withheld while other information is given inordinate weight - following the contrarian script rather than focusing on conveying the physical reality.

Dr. Klotzbach's words are in Georgia font, while mine are in Verdana.  

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From: Phil Klotzbach
Date: Sat, Sep 9, 2017 at 6:51 AM
Subject: Re: fyi, just posted "Surely you’re joking Dr. Klotzbach, no hurricane global warming connection"
To:  citizenschallenge @ gmail 

           Dr. Klotzbach:  Apologies for a delay, but it's been a very hectic past few days.  

No apology needed, considering your lead author of the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science’s seasonal hurricane forecast, I imagine you’re probably running on four hours of sleep these past few weeks.  I was surprised to receive any response, let alone such a thoughtful one.  I don’t mind admitting I’m honored and thank you for your time and effort.

Explaining your position will allow me to explain mine, which I believe is compatible with the need for vigorous science in all it’s maddening details minutia and uncertainties.

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Dr. Klotzbach:  In answer to your questions, I have spent over 15 years working with historical hurricane data, primarily for the Atlantic but over the last several years with global data, so I do not make statements like I did on NPR and many other news outlets without having spent much time understanding the nuances of the technology going into the analyses.  

I acknowledge your expertise, in fact both Drs. Mann and Tobis made a point of telling me your professional reputation among experts is solid.  Me?  I’m a layperson and my hobby for the past 45 years has been learning about Earth sciences.  Evolution and our planet’s global heat and moisture distribution engine have been of particular fascination to me.  

My position is that while our actual living breathing climate engine is infinitely complex, it follows fundamental and well understood laws - which I believe are too often left behind in favor of obsessing over trying to explain uncertainties that in the end are more irrelevant than not, and only serve to sooth people into complacent disconnect from the changes happening underfoot.  This is what my Map vs. Territory Problem is all about, allow me to explain.

The 'Trenberth travesty' Travesty - Contemplating Contrarians #3

{edited 7/27/14 morning}

Being part-time retired means I'm part time working, and tis the season, calls keep coming in so I don't have near the time I need to put together a decent post.  Though I have managed to continue the "interesting" conversation with "krischel" over at OurChangingClimate.com.  I keep wanting to report on it, but it piles on too fast to do it justice.  Still, this evening I do want to share the results of this lasted dog-bone I fetched:

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 krischel posted: June 24, 2014 at 18:26
"CC asks: “Do you even understand what Trenberth’s Travesty was all about?”
"K responds: "Yes, I do. It was about hiding uncertainty from the public, rather than being openly honest about it."

~ ~ ~ 

K linked me to Judith Curry's blog post of 3/29/2013 "Has Trenberth found the missing heat"

That in turn led me to Curry's, "Where's the "missing" heat? 1/7/2011 - Then on to a Roy Spencer's article of April 21, 2010: 

"The problem is that the oceans have not been warming in response to this imbalance.  

Trenberth and Fasullo seem to lean toward the possibility that this heat is “missing” somewhere, maybe temporarily trapped in the deep ocean. 

Roger Pielke, Sr., has voiced his opinion that the heat could not have magically avoided the ocean temperature sensors, both in space and floating around the world’s oceans, which monitor ocean surface and upper layer temperatures."

Yet, from the information within the links I share, you can see Spencer has no foundation for claiming "oceans have not been warming…"  Why?  Because we are still waiting on the data from the all important Antarctic continental shelf.  Making their focus on <700m disingenuous.