Droughts and Heatwaves: Ocean Oscillations vs CO2 by Jim Steele - examined

This is the continuation of my interrupted critical review of Mr. Jim Steele's recent spat of YouTube videos attacking the fundamentals of climatological understanding.  In my previous review I transcribed all of Jim's talk, but after finishing my first draft this time I decided that was too much of a waste of time and space.  So from here on I'll limit myself to transcribing key quotes and going from there.  The entire video is included for those who want to hear every word.

#2 Droughts and Heatwaves: Ocean Oscillations vs CO2

Jim Steele 

{in Courier font}

0:01  {picking up the talk mid-stream} "...how much does it (global warming) contribute to drought or how well does people that push "its CO2": "How do we know it's CO2?  We look at their models." 

Why trust climate models?

Thanks to a tip from Sou over at HotWhopper, I came across an excellent introduction to climate models that's definitely worth sharing... {and it'll make a nice break from the crazy-makers I've been featuring over here} because in the process I became familiar with an impressive young rationalist.  Scott Johnson who's a hydrogeologist, geoscience educator and freelance science writer and has a blog at fractalplanet.wordpress.com.  

I thought he did a good job of explaining some of the details and facts of climate models and how they are used to inform scientific learning.  

Since Climate Models are constantly being misrepresented and derided based on false claims and deliberate misperceptions, this is an article worth becoming familiar with.  I'm hoping to get permission to repost more highlights from the text in the future, right now I'll limit myself to the introduction and one paragraph from the closing and short descriptions of the sections of his article.

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Why trust climate models? 

It’s a matter of simple science

How climate scientists test, test again, and use their simulation tools.

by Scott K. Johnson - Sept 5 2013 - ARS TECHNICA.COM
http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/why-trust-climate-models-its-a-matter-of-simple-science/

It starts out:

¶1 " Talk to someone who rejects the conclusions of climate science and you’ll likely hear some variation of the following: “That’s all based on models, and you can make a model say anything you want.” Often, they'll suggest the models don't even have a solid foundation of data to work with—garbage in, garbage out, as the old programming adage goes. But how many of us (anywhere on the opinion spectrum) really know enough about what goes into a climate model to judge what comes out?

Is This Science? A comparison... Dr. Willie Soon vs. Professor Inez Fung

A while back I spent some time with a video Anthony Watts was touting -  It was the infamous Willie Soon PhD, solar physicist turned climate science "debunker."  He was giving his "scientific" explanations for why he believes pretty much all of climate science is a hoax... and worse. 

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Anthony Watts 

Dr. Willie Soon Guest Comment: ‘Is What I Say Beyond the Boundaries of Reasonable Discussion?’
Guest essay by Russell Cook

Dr. Soon seemed comfortable voicing all sorts of conspiracy laced claims towards others who have complained about the quality of his work, while attempting to project an image as a straight shooter, in spite of a rather generous income provided by very politically motived interests.

INDEX for my Climate Science Video Collection

My first website http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com developed into a venue that focuses primarily on Earth observations, climate science and education, whereas I started this website to focus on climate science deniers and to examine some of their ruthless attacks on rational thinking and learning.  

Since attempting to encourage serious learning by sharing authoritative sources of information is also at the heart of this website. I've decided to share some links to a series of posts where I've collected some first class climate science education videos and lectures.

Enjoy and happy learning!

Another big problem over at Steven McIntyre's ClimateAudit...

... is his, and his supporters obsession with obscure data processing and modeling issues.  Issues that by all rights belong with the full time experts.  

In fact, a cute analogy occurred to me while reading the comments over at ClimateAudit today. Back in the day, I was decent at keeping my cars alive and maintained... in a simpler world... 50s,60s,70s models.  Haven't forgotten any of that knowledge, but I'd be nuts trying to go at my '99 pick up, let alone a friend's 2010.  It requires a level of training and expertise and tools I don't have, and if my ego didn't let me recognize that, my attempts to do-it-myself would result in expensive disaster after disaster.

McIntyre makes a big deal of statistical proficiency and the lack of top tier statisticians among climatologists - he never mentions that climatologists learned from early mistakes and lessons, and have long taken expert statisticians on board as collaborators.  {They really are trying to get as accurate as possible!}  

For instance, McIntyre won't tell you about the "Geophysical Statistics Project" and NCAR's collaboration

Vahrenholt, Der Spiegel: "I Feel Duped" Interview, #6 examined

Dr. Vahrenholt as featured at WattsUpWithThat on February 13, 2012, personally introduced by Anthony Watts:
"German skeptics Lüning and Vahrenholt respond to criticism"

I myself am again astounded at the frauds Anthony Watts expects us to believe in.  Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt the latest practiced provocateur joining Anthony's parade is a stellar example of the shameless deception these folks peddle.

As it happens I've been taking a closer look at another interview 

Vahrenholt's gave during his media-blitz.  

This interview was printed in the February 8th issue of the German magazine Der Spiegel.  And I want to examine his answers.  For starters:
 

Vahrenholt . . . ‘I Feel Duped on Climate Change’

Question #6: of Research, Models and Earth is Cooling
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#6)  DER SPIEGEL: You make concrete statements on how much human activity contributes to climatic events and how much of a role natural factors play. Why don’t you publish your prognoses in a professional journal?

Dr. Vahrenholt: Because I don’t engage in my own climate research. Besides, I don’t have a supercomputer in my basement. For the most part, my co-author, geologist Sebastian Lüning, and I merely summarize what scientists have published in professional journals—just as the IPCC does. The book is also a platform for scientists who apply good arguments in diverging from the views of the IPCC. The established climate models have failed across the board because they cannot cogently explain the absence of warming.

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Vahrenholt, exemplifies