Showing posts with label John Hartz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Hartz. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Peter Miesler Helps Expose WUWT Homogenization Insanity, USHCN #2



Although I've been temporarily diverted from my Steele climate science horror story project, I haven't forgotten about it.  For instance, responding to Steele's outlandish Jan 7th WattUpWithThat post claiming to "expose USHCN Homogenization insanity" I had promised more information, but there are only so many hours in a day.

Fortunately, today there were a couple posts over at SkepticalScience.com that give an excellent review of this topic.  In one Dr. Kevin Cowtan, a bona fide expert in the field explains weather station calibration adjustments, the why and how they're done along with comparing adjusted to unadjusted data.  

The second "bulletin inventories rebuttals to two recent articles by Christopher Booker published in the UK's Daily Telegraph claiming that climate scientists have nefariously manipulated temperature data in order to propagate the "myth of manmade climate change".

With thanks to SkepticalScience.com I'll check this off my list and let Dr. Cowtan and John Hartz take it from here:
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Updated 3/27/2015 with this addition from  Variable-Variability.blogspot.com

Two new reviews of the homogenization methods used to remove non-climatic changes

Two new reviews of the homogenization methods used to remove non-climatic changes
By coincidence this week two initiatives have been launched to review the methods to remove non-climatic changes from temperature data. One initiative was launched by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK free-market think tank. The other by the Task Team on Homogenization (TT-HOM) of the Commission for Climatology (CCl) of the World meteorological organization (WMO). Disclosure: I chair the TT-HOM. 
The WMO is one of the oldest international organizations and has meteorological and hydrological services in almost all countries of the world as its members. The international exchange of weather data has always been important for understanding the weather and to make weather predictions. Its main role is to provide guidance and define standards to make collaboration easier. The CCl coordinates climate research, especially when it comes to data measured by the national weather services.  
The review on homogenization, which the TT-HOM will write, is thus mainly aimed at helping national weather services produce better quality datasets to study climate change. This will allow the weather services to provide better climate services to help their nations adapt to climate change.

Homogenization 
Homogenization is necessary because much has happened in the world between the French and the industrial revolution, two world wars, the rise and the fall of communism, and the start of the internet age. Inevitably many changes have occurred in climate monitoring practices. Many global datasets start in 1880, the year toilet paper was invented in the USA and 3 decades before the T-Ford. 
As a consequence, the instruments used to measure temperature have changed, the screens to protect the sensors from the weather have changed and the surrounding of the stations has often been changed and stations have been moved in response. These non-climatic changes in temperature have to be removed as well as possible to make more accurate assessments of how much the world has warmed.  
Removing such non-climatic changes is called homogenization. For the land surface temperature measured at meteorological stations, homogenization is normally performed using relative statistical homogenizing methods. Here a station is compared to its neighbours. If the neighbour is sufficiently nearby, both stations should show about the same climatic changes. Strong jumps or gradual increases happening at only one of the stations indicate a non-climatic change. 
If there is a bias in the trend, statistical homogenization can reduce it. How well trend biases can be removed depends on the density of the network. In industrialised countries a large part of the bias can be removed for the last century. In developing countries and in earlier times removing biases is more difficult and a large part may remain. Because many governments unfortunately limit the exchange of climate data, also the global temperature collections can only remove a part of the trend biases.

Some differences

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Telegraph {and Jim Steele} wrong again on temperature adjustments
Posted on 24 February 2015 by Kevin Cowtan

There has been a vigorous discussion of weather station calibration adjustments in the media over the past few weeks. While these adjustments don't have a big effect on the global temperature record, they are needed to obtain consistent local records from equipment which has changed over time. 

Despite this, the Telegraph has produced two highly misleading stories {that are bouncing around the echo-chamber} about the station adjustments, the second including the demonstrably false claim that they are responsible for the recent rapid warming of the Arctic.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Hurricane Sandy in context - a collection of articles and links


I think it's time for some real Earth Observations and science.  The contrarians over at Judith's website talk endlessly, making claims, but always leading away from looking at Earth observations.  While exuding an attitude that, not knowing everything is the same as knowing nothing.  They seem to have no appreciation of our planet's climate as a huge Global Heat Distribution Engine.  Instead trusting that a sharp intellect can outsmart Earth processes.

Unfortunately, argue all you want about minute details, or the exactitude of measurements, or philosophizing about science...  the bottom line is that we have been doping our atmosphere, and it is impacting our planet in one direction.  Our climate is transitioning to a new state -  and the less we do to turn down the ongoing doping of our atmosphere the worse the disruptions to the world and life style {we've come to depend on} are going to get.

Since all eyes have been on Hurricane, turned superstorm, Sandy.  She's worth a review since she is symptomatic of the changes society's Grand Atmospheric Experiment is bringing to weather processes.   Below is a large selection of good articles that lead to authoritative sources that explain the dynamics at work:





Superstorm Sandy

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How Does Climate Change Make Superstorms Like Sandy More Destructive?
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Trenberth: Hurricane Sandy Mixes Super-Storm Conditions With Climate Change




















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The Scientist


Opinion: Super Storm Sandy

What role did climate change play in this week’s massive hurricane?
By  | October 31, 2012

http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33084/title/Opinion--Super-Storm-Sandy/
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Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

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Frankenstorm: Has Climate Change Created A Monster?
by ADAM FRANK ~ October 28, 2012
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Rose and Curry Double Down on Global Warming Denial
Posted on 23 October 2012 by dana1981

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Hurricane Sandy had nothing to do with global warming
http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricane-sandy-global-warming.htm

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Climate Crock of the Week with Peter Sinclair

New Video: 

Hurricane Sandy’s Double Whammy

November 5, 2012



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2012 SkS News Bulletin #1: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
http://www.skepticalscience.com/2012-SkS-News-Bulletin-1_Hurricane-Sandy.html
Posted on 31 October 2012 by John Hartz
This is a round-up of selected news articles and blog posts about Hurricane Sandy, its impacts on North America, and its relationship to climate change. This bulletin supplements the regular SkS weekly News Round-Up which is posted on Saturday of each week.

Sunday, Oct 28
Monday, Oct 29
Tuesday, Oct 30
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2012 SkS News Bulletin #2: Hurricane Sandy & Climate Change
http://www.skepticalscience.com/2012-SkS-News-Bulletin-2_Hurricane-Sandy.html
Posted on 4 November 2012 by John Hartz
This is the second installment of a a round-up of selected news articles and blog posts about Hurricane Sandy, its impacts on the Caribbean and North America, and its relationship to climate change. This bulletin supplements the regular SkS weekly News Round-Up which is posted on Saturday of each week. A key pragraph has been extracted verbatim from each article in order to provide insight into the article's content.  

Arriving atop fantastically warm water and aided by a full foot of sea-level rise during the last century, Hurricane Sandy is just the latest example of climate change’s impact on human society. Unless we rapidly phase out our use of fossil fuels, most Americans within shouting distance of an ocean will—in coming years—live behind the sort of massive levees and floodgates that mark Louisiana today.

As the Caribbean reaches the end of October – the second-to-last month of the Atlantic hurricane season – Sandy has caused significant material losses and claimed the lives of 44 people in Haiti, 11 in Cuba, two in the Dominican Republic, one in Jamaica and one in the Bahamas.
Caribbean Faces Increasing Fury of Storms by Patricia Grogg, Inter Press Service (IPS), Oct 29, 2912

Hurricane Sandy seems straight out of a Hollywood apocalyptic blockbuster. But a confluence of environmental and topographical characteristics helps explain its vast size, slow progress, storm surge and multiple methods of wreaking havoc on the coast and deep inland, scientists say.
The science behind Hurricane Sandy: a confluence of trouble by Neela Banerjee, Los Angeles Times, Oct 29, 2012 

But no president can cross Big Oil in the way that is required to defuse the climate crisis without the help of a powerful and sustained popular movement. If Hurricane Sandy contributes to building such a movement—and McKibben and his fellow activists at 350.org and allied organizations are launching a national tour shortly after Election Day that aims to do just that—America might still avoid the curse of Cassandra by heeding her warnings at last.
Hurricane Sandy as Greek Tragedy by Mark Hertsgaard, The Nation, Oct 30, 2012

Watching the images of Sandy leaving a path of destruction brings back memories of the day after Hurricane Andrew hit my home in Miami back in 1992. The state of shock as my parents and I approached our storm ravaged home is still fresh in my memory even 20 years later as I see the faces of those who are experiencing the same today.
Superstorm Sandy Reminds Us Why We Have to Care About Climate Change by Adrianna Quintero, The Huffington Post, Oct 31, 2012

By the time Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast coast on Monday, upending lives across the Eastern half of the country, it had become a freakish hybrid of a large, late-season hurricane and a winter storm more typical of the middle latitudes. Though by no means unprecedented, that type of hybrid storm is rare enough that scientists have not studied whether it is likely to become more common in a warming climate.
Are Humans to Blame? Science Is Out by Justin Gillis, New York Times, Oct 31, 2012

But scientists agree on one point: Rising sea levels caused primarily by global warming could worsen the effects of storms such as Sandy, particularly when it comes to storm surge. And that means coastal communities throughout the United States must think about what they’ll need for protection from such storms.
Did climate change play a role in Sandy’s strength? by Erika Bolstad, McClatchy Newspapers, Oct 31, 2012

The images of a paralysed New York City at the mercy of Hurricane Sandy's wall of water have forced climate change on to the political agenda in the final week of the 2012 presidential election campaign. Even before Sandy made landfall political commentators were debating whether the storm would be better for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama. In any event it has brought forth statements from prominent Democrats and elected officials on climate change and spurred public debate about the neglected topic.
Sandy puts climate change back on the US election agenda by Suzanne Goldberg, The Gaurdian, Oct 31, 2012

Miller strongly disagreed with my discussion of the science revealing past patterns of extreme storminess in the Northeast and the science pointing to a rising human influence on some (but not all) kinds of extreme weather. The exchange is worth posting here now (Miller gave permission), to give you a sense of how intelligent people with related, if not identical, goals can interpret a large body of science very differently:
Two Views of a Superstorm in Climate Context by Andrew Revkin, Dot Earth, New York Times, Oct 31, 2012

"Folks, second year in a row the New York metro area has been [hit] by this stuff," said Todd, NBC News's Chief White House Correspondent and host of The Daily Rundown on MSNBC. "Let's not bury our heads in the sand when it comes to something has changed in the Atlantic. The climate has changed. It's called climate change, folks."

Up to now, New York's response to flood threats has been to build smaller-scale barriers around facilities to make them more resilient to flooding. A multibillion-dollar project to create a storm surge defense system hasn't been on the agenda. "The city has been very polite, and they agree that in the long term it will become a necessity," Bowman said. "But for now they say, not yet. They're focusing on resilience, solutions to small problems."
NYC flood was foreseen: Now what? by Alan Boyle, Cosmic Log, NBCNews.com, Oct 31, 2012

Democrats have been AWOL on climate change, but Republicans have been even more recalcitrant. Their failure is odd, because in other areas of national security Republicans pride themselves on their vigilance. Romney doesn’t want to wait until he sees an Iranian nuclear weapon before acting, so why the passivity about climate change?
Will Climate Get Some Respect Now? by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, Oct 31, 2012 

A huge storm barrels down on the United States, wreaking havoc with punishing winds, record flooding, heavy snowfall and massive blackouts. Is the main culprit climate change or a freak set of coincidences?
Climate change, or crap shoot? Experts weigh Sandy's causes by Julie Steenhuysen and Alister Doyle, Alertnet/Reuters, Oct 31, 2012

Climate science explains how global warming can make a superstorms like Sandy more destructive in several ways:

The evidence is not yet in for the East Coast in 2011 and 2012, but the general trends are increasingly clear. In its 2012 report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that "A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events."
Climate change is real by Chris Field, Special to CNN, Nov 1, 2012

Earlier this week, New York's Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) issued a pointed statement on climate change and its role in the monstrous storm from which his state -- and many others -- will be recovering for months, and perhaps years, to come.
"It's a longer conversation, but I think part of learning from this is the recognition that climate change is a reality," Cuomo said. "Extreme weather is a reality. It is a reality that we are vulnerable."
Hurricane Sandy's Link To Climate Change: Does It Matter? by Tom Zeller Jr., The Huffington Post, Nov 1, 2012

I’ve tried this week, as sporadic Internet access allowed, to foster some productive discourse amid a media environment that seems dead-set on creating polarization. The two most vivid examples on my mind at the moment are “It’s Global Warming, Stupid,” a much-shared essay in Bloomberg Businessweek, and an effort by Anthony Watts, inspired by a ridiculous U.S. News Sandy-warming poll, to list scientists and commentators for and against global warming as the storm’s cause.
On Hurricanes, Presidents, Climate and One Clear Human Factor in the Sandy Disaster by Andrew Revkin, Dot Earth, New York Times, Nov 1, 2012

In a surprise announcement, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said Thursday that Hurricane Sandy had reshaped his thinking about the presidential campaign and that as a result he was endorsing President Obama.
Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change by Raymond Hernandez, New York Times, Nov 1, 2012

As NCAR’s Gerald Meehl, a co-author of the study, explained to me by e-mail, it’s a lot easier to stabilize global temperatures by cutting carbon emissions than it is to stabilize sea-level rise. The carbon-dioxide that we’ve already loaded into the atmosphere will likely have effects on the oceans for centuries to come. “But with aggressive mitigation,” Meehl added, “you can slow down the rate of sea level rise, which buys time for adaptation measures.”
Can we stop the seas from rising? Yes, but less than you think. by Brad Plumer, Ezra Klein's Wonk Blog, Washington Post, Nov 1, 2012

Bloomberg Businessweek editor Josh Tyrangiel tweeted, "Our cover story this week may generate controversy, but only among the stupid."

Hurricane Sandy has broken the so-called “climate silence” of this year’s elections. The storm has thrown a wrench into campaign efforts, halting activities Monday and Tuesday as it became impossible to ignore the topic of climate change, which has penetrated the national dialogue.
Hurricane Sandy Fans Flames of Climate Change Debate by Rebecca Hanser, Inter Press Service (IPS), Nov 1, 2012

“While one storm ‘might have happened anyway’ in a mythical non-industrial world, the general level of weird weather (an amalgam of many events) is clearly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases,” says David Archer, a professor at the University of Chicago, in an email. “Like you could figure out that dice are loaded by tossing them a few times, more than just once.” (His book, The Long Thaw, is one of the best quick reads on climate change.)

On Tuesday, I posted some suggestions for how people could help the victims of Hurricane Sandy here in the United States. I neglected to mention the horrific suffering in impoverished Haiti, which was pummeled by Sandy’s devastating trajectory before she hit US shores.
Don't Forget Haiti by Peter Rothberg, The Nation, Nov 2, 2012

Those crazy, radical hippies at Bloomberg Businessweek have gone and done it. With the blunt, no-nonsense cover that likely already appeared on your Facebook feed or Twitter stream or Tumblr dashboard, Businessweek dared state with certainty what so many media outlets have nervously danced around in their coverage of Superstorm Sandy: It’s Global Warming, Stupid.
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