#7 Penguins, butterflies and consensus - CC/Steele Landscapesandcycles Debate

A virtual debate with Jim Steele, based on his interview at Heartland Institute:  

Heartland Daily Podcast | Jim Steele | January 27, 2015 

Research Fellow H. Sterling Burnett (for the National Center for Policy Analysis) interviews Jim Steele, ecologist, director emeritus of the Sierra Nevada field campus of San Francisco State University

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Steele:  "And we trust the scientific theory because its been fairly tested by others - the theory must out perform all alternate explanations, eliminate confounding factors plus lively debate.  But, what I was finding was the scientific process was being defiled when scientists refused to debate in public. ... and any attempt to prevent that debate, in our schools, in the media, in peer reviewed science, it's only denigrating the scientific process.  ... And I think those public debates would help create real climate literacy …"

Well then Mr. Steele, let's have our Great Global Warming Science Debate.  I will accept these responses from your Heartland Institute podcast as your opening round.  I'll offer my rebuttals, evidence and questions.  I agree to post your thoughtful responses unaltered. (Though it's looking like you're going to do your best to hide and ignore these critiques of your self-certain claims. Your silence will serve to expose your hypocrisy and inability to defend your statements on an even playing field.)

In this seventh installment I'll debate your Antarctic penguin story, your misrepresentation of Dr. Camille Parmesan and your revulsion towards scientific "consensus".

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"How should society contend with those who knowingly disseminate misinformation about climate science?"  Lawrence Torcello

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Heartland Burnett: In earlier conversations you mentioned a couple other examples - you've already mentioned the butterfly, but you also mentioned the case of the Emperor Penguin.  Could you describe that case a little bit?

Steele:  Sure. There have been a few stories about the emperor penguin marching to extinction, 

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Who wrote the stories?  Was it an opinion piece of a political type, causal newspaper, right-wing think-tank, left-wing think-tank, letters to the editor, serious science reporting, a retired PhD in an unrelated field but who possesses strong political motivations, a scientist who's active in the field, an actual peer reviewed study, a university press release?  

Mr. Steele, how do you weigh the relative reliability of those competing sources of information? 

You like dramatizing the extinction schtick, but you never mention that all this science you are picking on is about population dynamics.  The scientists are counting and observing populations and reporting trends they are witnessing.  
The few studies that touch on potential penguin extinction have it out on the century horizon.
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Steele:  it's sort of based on one colony 

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What is sort of based on one colony?   

Some studies from Dumont d'Urville, which at nearly 60 is the longest running penguin research lab in Antarctica?

Census and environment studies from throughout the continent that uniformly paint a grim picture for penguins' long term prospects?

After all, there are at least 22 active research programs dedicated to Antarctic penguins, all of them churning out studies painting a consistent image.

Australians – 3;  French – 1 on continent;  Crozet – 1;  New Zealand – 2 in Ross Sea;  USA – 4 in Ross Sea;  Bellingshausen – 1;  South Shetlands – 2;  UK – 2 at South Georgia;  UK – 1 at S Orkney;  Germany – 1;  Argentina – 1;  Japan – 1;  Italy – 2

http://www.gdargaud.net/Antarctica/InfoAntarctica.html

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Steele:  that suffered a large decline between about 1960 and 1980 and it was the same colony that was used for the documentary March of Penguins.  But if you look at the British Antarctic Survey data, there was absolutely no warming trend. 

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Jim, why are you ignoring the warming period in the late 1970s and early 80s when average temp rose nearly three degrees centigrade and ice conditions went to pot for penguins and the population lost around 3,000 penguins?  That's what the study you keep picking on was about.  So why are you trying to compare that study then to today?  

In the mid 80s temperatures did return to "normal" - but with a twist.

Appendix Steele's penguin "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4b

{Since Dr. Ainley took the time to answer my emailed questions and was quite helpful in exposing me to various background and studies I was unaware of, I sent him a courtesy copy of my post and this appendix - to see if he had any objections or suggestions before posting them.

Interestingly, he pointed out that I had not mentioned LaRue 2014, which happens to be the same study Steele's "Landscapesandcycles" (and the rest of the echo-chamber) have been trumpeting as supporting their 'No Worries' attitude towards the changes being observed in the Antarctic.  So I've spent the evening reading through that study and I do think comparing that study to what's being claimed on its behalf will make for a good follow up post, but for now what I have here will do.  Happy learning. }

This appendix goes together with my review of Jim Steele's IEEE "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4 part 1 regarding Penguins and condition at the Antarctic.  I've posted it in this stand alone page - so that my review and supporting information can be looked at side by side.

Mr. Steele says at 0:25: "... that population has giving rise to all these the horror stories about them going extinct by the end of the century."

It is a scientific horror story to misrepresent the truth!  

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Steele accuses these papers of being an "extinction horror show" yet you won't find the word "extinction" in them - instead you'll find assessments of conditions and sober nuanced projections based on the available facts.

[1a]

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

Jenouvrier, Holland, Stroeve, Serreze, Barbraud, Weimerskirch, Caswell

Nature Climate Change | Letter | Published online 29 June 2014

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n8/full/nclimate2280.html

"... We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies⁵ by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model^{6, 7} with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. ..."

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[1b] 

Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels

David Ainley, Russell, Jenouvrier, Woehler, Lyver, Fraser, Kooyman

Ecological Society of America  |  Accepted: May 5, 2009

http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-2289.1

"We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), ...

Steele's penguin "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4a

I'm finally getting to the last of Jim Steele's YouTube "horror stories" to the Life Members of the International Electrical and Electronic Engineers'.  This time splitting it into smaller sections, with this first review going to 5:20 and me looking at Steele's claims regarding penguins and what's happening with the climate/weather around Antarctica. 

Jim Steele's talk offers us lessons in two contrasting approaches to learning.  Pay attention and you will notice that Mr. Steele constantly pushes his own conviction ahead of the information he shares.  Thus he's forced to carefully select and then manipulate his information in single-minded dedication to bolstering his sales pitch. 

I'd call Steele's approach the Lawyerly Method, where all that matters is defending one's client regardless of actual guilt or innocence.

The scientific approach on the other hand, is all about learning and assessing the "guilt or innocence" of the topic being studied.  The scientific approach remains open to new information and surprises and life long learning.  Mistakes happen along the way and are converted into valuable learning opportunities as we move forward.

Contrast that to Steele's Republican/Libertarian world where the mistakes of others are enshrined without the slightest interest in examining and understanding why the mistakes were made or what was learned - instead Jim whittles them into bludgeons for attacking all he wants to silence.  As for their own mistakes... well Jim and his crowd doesn't seem to think they make any… it's tough on the learning process.

This time, rather than interjecting my evidence as I go through the transcript, I use an appendix I've posted in a stand alone page - so both pages can be viewed side by side.  As usual Mr. Steele's words will be in courier font.

Published on Nov 3, 2014

Part 4 from Jim Steele's Presentation to the Life Members of the International Electrical and Electronic Engineers. Jim is the author of "Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist's Journey to Climate Skepticism"

Penguins, Polar Bears and Sea Ice by JIm Steele

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okS2dXsR2gg,

Part A of Video 4 - 0:00-5:20

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[1] 0:00 - "There's been several studies last couple years about the Emperor Penguin going extinct..." {launches into a too cute story about his personal fascination with their habits} 0:25 -  "... that population has giving rise to all these horror stories about them going extinct by the end of the century. …"

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Here Steele uses the technique of inserting misleading melodrama in order to belittle the seriousness of what is being observed. [1] 

None of the studies were screaming “extinction,” heck I couldn't even find the word used in the scientific literature.  Instead the studies are detailed reviews of a changing environment and how those changes will affect penguin colonies.

Regarding "that" population, we should be clear penguin populations are being studied along the entire Antarctic coastline, nor is this particular colony the only one feeling the effects of a rapidly changing climate regime.

The thing that strikes me about this sort of gloss over - is the shear lack of curiosity all the way around.  No interest in understanding what's behind the headlines, "dismiss and move on" as though none of the details matter -  for many of those details see appendix [1]

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