Paul Austin Murphy, you one funny fellow

{edited 12/29/14 am}

I just came across an article dedicated to me, oh my.

December 27, 2014

How What'sUpWithThatWatts Argues Against Global-Warming Skeptics  

By Paul Austin Murphy | American "Thinker"

{Actually Paul, I argue against professional liars.}

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2014/12/how_whatsupwiththatwatts_argues_against_globalwarming_skeptics_comments.html

Unfortunately, all he does is bitch about who he thinks I am or am not and how much he dislikes my approach - not one word about the substance of my complaints regarding his dismissal of the evidence that manmade global warming is for real or the climate indicators I shared with him.

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As for who I am, it's already been addressed: 

Saturday, February 1, 2014

ClimateAudit. . .“Citizenschallenge” has no CV

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/02/climateaudit-citizenschallenge-cv.html

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Now back to the geophysical evidence I challenged Paul Murhpy with regarding the facts of how increasing our atmosphere's insulating ability is impacting our global climate system and all that depends on its rhythms.

Been a while and I see Paul doesn't seem to want to engage in a discussion about evidence.  Why am I not surprised.  Learning about what's happening upon our planet isn't within that (those) American "Thinker's" intellectual capacity.

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Our planet displays plenty of proof that warming continues, 

and at a frightening pace - you just have to poke around.

A few highlights of what you and your pals have been missing, 
first the South Pole:

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West Antarctic melt rate has tripled in last decade

December 2, 2014

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141202183313.htm

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Changing Antarctic winds create new sea level threat

July 7, 2014

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Stronger winds may explain puzzling growth of sea ice in Antarctica, model shows

September 18, 2013

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Coastal Antarctic permafrost melting faster than expected: Arctic-like melt rates appearing in Coastal Antarctica

July 24, 2013

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Warm ocean drives most Antarctic ice shelf loss

June 13, 2013

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New insight into accelerating summer ice melt on the Antarctic Peninsula

April 14, 2013

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Summer melt season getting longer on Antarctic Peninsula

March 27, 2013

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Warm ocean currents cause majority of ice loss from Antarctica

April 25, 2012

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NASA study examines Antarctic sea ice increases

November 13, 2012

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Why Antarctic sea ice cover has increased under the effects of climate change

November 11, 2012

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Warm ocean currents cause majority of ice loss from Antarctica

April 25, 2012

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Now for an update on the North Pole happening:

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Variations in ice sheet height influence global climate

November 3, 2014

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141103161921.htm

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2014 Arctic sea ice minimum sixth lowest on record

September 23, 2014

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Minor variations in ice sheet size can trigger abrupt climate change

August 18, 2014

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Melt ponds shine in NASA laser altimeter images

August 4, 2014

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Huge waves measured for first time in Arctic Ocean

July 29, 2014

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Arctic warming linked to fewer European and U.S. cold weather extremes, new study shows

June 15, 2014

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Reduced sea ice area also noted in winter

June 11, 2014

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Why Arctic ice is disappearing more rapidly than expected: River ice reveals new twist on Arctic melt

April 2, 2014

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Permafrost thaw exacerbates climate change

March 21, 2014

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Increase in Arctic cyclones is linked to climate change

February 18, 2014

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Bonus:

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Cause of global warming hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean

August 21, 2014

University of Washington

Observations show that the heat absent from the Earth's surface for more than a decade is plunging deep in the north and south Atlantic Ocean, and is part of a naturally occurring cycle. Subsurface warming in the ocean explains why global average air temperatures have flatlined since 1999, despite greenhouse gases trapping more solar heat at Earth's surface.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140821141445.htm

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This video does a heck of a job of putting it in perspective:

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2014 On Pace for Hottest Year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5ymM00tR9o

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PS.

Mr. Murphy, 

skepticism is a joke without an honest desire to learn; keep in mind one directional skepticism, equals denial.

Skepticism is about asking questions and wanting answers and being open to best information available, even when that information steps all over previous understanding/belief.  It's not about winning or ego, it's about learning.  Skepticism is about not fully trusting anyone, not even yourself.  Skepticism is about weeding though nonsense and allowing the evidence to dictate what one trusts.

Why do you folks think understanding our climate system deserves such malicious contempt?  What's wrong with seriously learning about what's happening within this biosphere and climate system that we all depend on for everything?

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For a more detailed look at contrarian tactics see:

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Steele's penguin "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4a

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/12/steeles-penguin-climate-horrorstory.html

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Appendix Steele's penguin "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4a

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/12/appendix-steeles-penguin-horrorstory.html

Appendix Steele's penguin "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4b

{Since Dr. Ainley took the time to answer my emailed questions and was quite helpful in exposing me to various background and studies I was unaware of, I sent him a courtesy copy of my post and this appendix - to see if he had any objections or suggestions before posting them.

Interestingly, he pointed out that I had not mentioned LaRue 2014, which happens to be the same study Steele's "Landscapesandcycles" (and the rest of the echo-chamber) have been trumpeting as supporting their 'No Worries' attitude towards the changes being observed in the Antarctic.  So I've spent the evening reading through that study and I do think comparing that study to what's being claimed on its behalf will make for a good follow up post, but for now what I have here will do.  Happy learning. }

This appendix goes together with my review of Jim Steele's IEEE "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4 part 1 regarding Penguins and condition at the Antarctic.  I've posted it in this stand alone page - so that my review and supporting information can be looked at side by side.

Mr. Steele says at 0:25: "... that population has giving rise to all these the horror stories about them going extinct by the end of the century."

It is a scientific horror story to misrepresent the truth!  

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Steele accuses these papers of being an "extinction horror show" yet you won't find the word "extinction" in them - instead you'll find assessments of conditions and sober nuanced projections based on the available facts.

[1a]

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

Jenouvrier, Holland, Stroeve, Serreze, Barbraud, Weimerskirch, Caswell

Nature Climate Change | Letter | Published online 29 June 2014

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n8/full/nclimate2280.html

"... We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies⁵ by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model^{6, 7} with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. ..."

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[1b] 

Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels

David Ainley, Russell, Jenouvrier, Woehler, Lyver, Fraser, Kooyman

Ecological Society of America  |  Accepted: May 5, 2009

http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-2289.1

"We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), ...

Steele's penguin "climate horror story" YouTube series, Video 4a

I'm finally getting to the last of Jim Steele's YouTube "horror stories" to the Life Members of the International Electrical and Electronic Engineers'.  This time splitting it into smaller sections, with this first review going to 5:20 and me looking at Steele's claims regarding penguins and what's happening with the climate/weather around Antarctica. 

Jim Steele's talk offers us lessons in two contrasting approaches to learning.  Pay attention and you will notice that Mr. Steele constantly pushes his own conviction ahead of the information he shares.  Thus he's forced to carefully select and then manipulate his information in single-minded dedication to bolstering his sales pitch. 

I'd call Steele's approach the Lawyerly Method, where all that matters is defending one's client regardless of actual guilt or innocence.

The scientific approach on the other hand, is all about learning and assessing the "guilt or innocence" of the topic being studied.  The scientific approach remains open to new information and surprises and life long learning.  Mistakes happen along the way and are converted into valuable learning opportunities as we move forward.

Contrast that to Steele's Republican/Libertarian world where the mistakes of others are enshrined without the slightest interest in examining and understanding why the mistakes were made or what was learned - instead Jim whittles them into bludgeons for attacking all he wants to silence.  As for their own mistakes... well Jim and his crowd doesn't seem to think they make any… it's tough on the learning process.

This time, rather than interjecting my evidence as I go through the transcript, I use an appendix I've posted in a stand alone page - so both pages can be viewed side by side.  As usual Mr. Steele's words will be in courier font.

Published on Nov 3, 2014

Part 4 from Jim Steele's Presentation to the Life Members of the International Electrical and Electronic Engineers. Jim is the author of "Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist's Journey to Climate Skepticism"

Penguins, Polar Bears and Sea Ice by JIm Steele

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okS2dXsR2gg,

Part A of Video 4 - 0:00-5:20

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[1] 0:00 - "There's been several studies last couple years about the Emperor Penguin going extinct..." {launches into a too cute story about his personal fascination with their habits} 0:25 -  "... that population has giving rise to all these horror stories about them going extinct by the end of the century. …"

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Here Steele uses the technique of inserting misleading melodrama in order to belittle the seriousness of what is being observed. [1] 

None of the studies were screaming “extinction,” heck I couldn't even find the word used in the scientific literature.  Instead the studies are detailed reviews of a changing environment and how those changes will affect penguin colonies.

Regarding "that" population, we should be clear penguin populations are being studied along the entire Antarctic coastline, nor is this particular colony the only one feeling the effects of a rapidly changing climate regime.

The thing that strikes me about this sort of gloss over - is the shear lack of curiosity all the way around.  No interest in understanding what's behind the headlines, "dismiss and move on" as though none of the details matter -  for many of those details see appendix [1]

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IPCC'S Reality Check, a short video.

I just stumbled onto a "new version" of an IPCC video, it's an introduction to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC's "Physical Science Basis" Working Group. Since I'm only its forth viewer, I figured I should share it. {OK, it's just because it fits in so well with my current "reality check" theme, that I'm posting it.  Along with some short time-signatured notes.}

0:00 - IPCC - "The scientific evidence is stronger than ever.  Better and more observations, improved understanding of the climate system response, further development of climate models, all point in the same direction."

"Human influence on the climate system is clear."

Published on Dec 23, 2014

International Panel on Climate Change

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXioFUz4Kx0

Continue for a time signature outline of this video

Mr. Steele, time for a reality check.

Mr. Steele having studied your Climate Horror Stories YouTube series and various articles you've been peppering the internet with and considering your noble sounding appeals to Carl Sagan's advice and a "civil" debate, I'm appalled at the ease with which you lie about scientists, their science and Earth observations.  

Though I'd intended to be finished with my "Climate Horror Stories" review a couple weeks ago, commitments and unanticipated distracts keep pulling me away.  Still when I can I've continued on the project, mainly doing research on the various claims in video four, which like the previous videos, have consistently turned out to be disingenuous manipulations of the truth, and occasionally out and out fabrications.  

Yesterday I came across a new website that has done a wonderful job of addressing many questions and arguments in a short concise manner.  Therefore, I've decided to share excerpts with my audience and also to encourage you, Jim Steele, to visit their website in order to carefully read the full content, who knows it may help you grasp the enormity of your willful deception.  It starts with one of your favorite talking points.  

I'd be interested to hear how you would "debate" the lucid arguments they outline.  You are welcome to comment here and I assure you I will post any communication you care to share.  As for your video #4, stay tuned.

Addressing Some Common Questions & Arguments

http://understandit.wordpress.com/addressing-some-common-questions-arguments/

1. “They can’t even predict next week’s weather”/”Models are useless”

A blast from the past May 16, 2014 Steele's Arctic Ice Horror story

I though I'd have the time to finish with Jim Steele's video #4 of his Horror Stories YouTube series.  Didn't happen, though I did manage to do most my homework, still it may be a while before I can get it posted.  Getting it together in a presentable post is a very time consuming process.  

But, since we are about to discuss (that would be my virtual dialogue with Jim Steele) his claim that there's been no warming in Arctic regions.  I thought this blast from the past might make a decent filler, since it includes about the best one minute long proof of the dramatic warming our planetary climate system has gone through these past few decades.  

Not all the belly-aching in the world about slightly flawed wildlife studies changes one iota of that geophysical fact!  Take a satellite view of the "Amount of old ice in Arctic, 1987-2013"

Here's a reprint of a note/post from May 16, 2014, back in the early days of our acquaintance.  And let's be clear it's his writings and claims I'm having my feud with, the man is incidental, in that he's just the lasted incarnation of a proud assortment of political entertainer ready to work for the Republican/Libertarian 'BS The Public Circuit,' rather than serious educators.  

And yes, that is exactly what the public global warming dialogue needed.  We sure didn't need these past two, three decades worth of intellectual travesty.

What's it mean to be an honest skeptic?

{edited 3/8/15}
I had cause to reread a fun movie review I'd written last month.  Reading it again I was thinking I should be posting part of it over here.  Because... you know... all this Steele stuff (dealing with vid#4 now, yuck). The way he gives all that lip service to rational and complete science, but then he ignores tons of real Earth observations and instead goes off into totalitarian deep right field. His only defense being to reject the science outright, while conjured up ridiculous conspiracy notions.  

Scientists have it hard enough focusing on getting everything to work right, they don't have time for conspiratorial tweaking of data - that would be obvious to any trained, educated observer.  

There's the rub, notice how all these people, such as my pal Jim, don't understand the actual science fields they are attacking.  Like little kids with noses pressed against the window watching the train set run, without the first clue of what it takes to make that seeming magic happen. (guess i'm dating myself)  

They talk the Talk, but don't walk the Walk. 

So I ask: What's it mean to be an honest skeptic?

 From the closing paragraphs of

An Honest Liar - Considering James Randi

http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2014/11/an-honest-liar-considering-james-randi.html

Taking questions, James Randi responded to one with something I'd already jotted down in my notes as the single best line in the documentary, "People need to believe.” Later, I had a chance to shake his hand and speak with him. I asked: “OK, people need to believe – what can we do with that? Where do we go from there?"