======================================================
Open letter to Dan Pangburn
Regarding your "Historical Data on Global Warming provided by U.S. Government Agencies" op-ed"
Dear Dan Pangburn,
You've written to me over at my citizenschallenge.blogspot.com and offered links to your work. I have read more of your blogs and posts and various comments around the web. Well, it's fired me up with a desire to write you a letter asking some heart to heart questions and sharing my perspective with you and your compatriots. I'm doing it here because WUWTW seemed a more appropriate location.
I'll base my letter on that piece you keep plugging, your March 15, 2008 op-ed:
"Historical Data on Global Warming provided by U.S. Government Agencies"
I will include your direct quotes from that paper followed by comments and further links to sources that support my arguments.
You write: "I have been researching the global warming issue for months. I am a licensed Mechanical Engineer with an MSc in Mechanical Engineering. The following is a brief verbal description of some of my sources and findings with graphics that show these findings..."
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
First off, what's up with that title?
It's sweeping and somehow authoritative sounding, as if it originated in a government office. Why did you choose to give it that semi-official sounding name?
Then consider how you establish your authority.
You seem to believe that as a mechanical engineer you've got the background to master climatology with a few months of personal study. As if that lends you the genius to leapfrog scientists who have spent many years studying and mastering this topic.
Aren't you claiming a bit too much? What about those experts who have spent years wrestling with the formulas, data, models and their complexities?
How does mechanical engineering prepare you to understand the natural world?
Your world of buildings and bridges and mechanical forces is filled with the laws of physics in their most simplified form. It's a world full of constraints and absolutes - whereas our planet's natural systems work on an altogether different level.
How is it that after a few months of study you feel qualified to so absolutely dismiss long standing "consensus" science and practice? You complain about papers not being accepted for publication.
What that lot of unpublished papers that were basically substandard? Ds and Fs so to speak... why should seriously flawed papers deserve to be published?
Even from reading your replies at various discussions you reply to knowledgeable folks and their critiques... it seems evasive and willfully ignoring significant complaints.
I wonder, can you explain the difference between mechanical and Earth studies?
I'm serious, can you come up with a short descriptive comparison?
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You write: "The assertion that humans have or ever can have a significant influence on climate such as by limiting the use of fossil fuel (a.k.a. limiting human production of carbon dioxide) is not supported by any historical record."
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
What does this mean? The human population has never been as large or resource consuming as today - so of course, there are no historical comparisons.
Do you seriously question whether humans can have a significant influence? - please explain that.
What about the evidence that humans have become a unprecedented major geologic force on this planet? Centuries of struggling to tame and subdue the biosphere have succeeded with a vengeance... don't you think?
I'll be honest with you, to me, believing humans can't possibly have major global impacts makes as much sense as believing our universe was formed 6 thousand years ago in one frenzied week... oh yea, silly me, half the US population does believe that god created Earth in a week long frenzy.
~ ~ ~
For those who are curious human impacts the evidence overwhelming, here's a sampling:
Dawn of the Anthropocene Epoch? Earth Has Entered New Age of Geological Time, Experts Say
Mar. 26, 2010 — Geologists from the University of Leicester are among four scientists- including a Nobel prize-winner -- who suggest that Earth has entered a new age of geological time.
~ ~ ~
Living in the Anthropocene: Toward a New Global Ethos
Paul J. Crutzen and Christian Schägerl
~ ~ ~
A man-made world -
Science is recognising humans as a geological force to be reckoned with.
~ ~ ~
A Global Map of Human Impacts to Marine Ecosystems
~ ~ ~
A major international conference focusing on solutions to the global sustainability challenge.
~ ~ ~
As you can see, honest curiosity and a sincere effort reveals a plethora of evidence of human's major disruptive impacts upon our planet. There's much more out there then I'll ever have the time to dig up.
Faith can't erase that reality.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You write: "The temperature1 has varied substantially while the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere2 exhibits a smooth progressive rise. Note on this graph that prior to about 1910, and again from 1944 to about 1976, temperature showed a decreasing trend while atmospheric carbon dioxide level was increasing. . . "
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You are deliberately misrepresenting the science. For a more complete treatment view these examples:
What caused early 20th Century warming?
IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
2.2 Drivers of climate change
You also confuse "Trend and variation,"
here's a simple video explaining what you've omitted:
"Trend and variation"
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You write: "In the previous graph it appears that since 1976 the increasing carbon dioxide level has caused the average global temperature to rise. However, a close look at the graph below reveals the fact that, typically in the past, global average temperature rose or fell before the carbon dioxide level changed."
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Dan you ignore too much of the story. What about this information:
CO2: The Biggest Control Knob on Earth's Thermostat
Professor Richard Alley
~ ~ ~
Ben Santer: Crushing the Myth of Global Cooling
(considering signal and noise)
~ ~ ~
(CO2) A Natural By-Product of Nature
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You write: "This graph shows that the average global temperature 400 years ago was significantly higher than now and the recent rate of temperature change is not unusual."
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
That graph does not represent the global temperature, nor does any one graph definitively do that. They are building blocks of learning. Why are you ignoring the accumulated knowledge scientists have built up regarding the MWP and other temperature fluctuation over the past thousands of years?
Do a search for "Medieval Warm Period" over at SkepticalScience.com (that internet repository of climate science papers), the list of informative information is impressive and clearly shows that temperature fluctuations are considered and understood.
Results "Medieval Warm Period"
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You write: "For most of earth’s history carbon dioxide level has been several times higher than the present8,9. The planet plunged in to the Andean-Saharan ice age 440 million years ago10 when the carbon dioxide level was over ten times higher than now.The conclusion from all this is that carbon dioxide change does NOT cause significant climate change."
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
What a sad, even pathetic, deception you are playing here. It's worth repeating, no climatologist has ever claimed CO2 was the driving factor in every climate swing Earth has experienced !
Comparing today's globe and biosphere with what existed 440 million years ago is as disingenuous as it gets.
You willfully ignore that our global heat distribution engine is a product of evolution and that it has reached a special sweet spot during the recent geologic era. One that has been most conducive to society's development; one that we are dependent on; one deserving of much respect and appreciation. After all our society is dependent on predicable stable weather conditions.
~ ~ ~
YouTube's "ThinkAboutIt" has put together an excellent < 8 minute video reviewing the past 600 million years of our climate's evolution. It valuable information presented in a timeline fashion and filled with fascinating details you seem obvious to.
Man Made Climate Change in 7 Minutes
(The last 600 Million years of our climate's evolution in 7 minutes)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You write: "Actions to control the amount of non-condensing greenhouse gases that are added to the atmosphere are based on the mistaken assumption that global warming was caused by human activity. These actions put freedom and prosperity at risk. "
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
You reveal your agenda... and it doesn't sound like its got anything to do with understanding our planet. I'm thinking you are one of those folks committed to that "free-corporate-market" philosophy, more interested in retaining assets and power than understanding how our planet behaves.
You talk of "freedom and prosperity" but ignore how dependent every aspect of our society is on stable reliable weather patterns. The very thing our rampant ever increasing CO2 injections into our thin atmosphere is promising to disrupt.
Have you seriously considered you might be wrong and this course you are advocating, of ignoring Earth Observation evidence and expert opinions, will prove destructive to our younger generations?
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Mr. Pangburn, I wonder what you think of Spencer Weart's words in his essay:
"I often get emails from scientifically trained people who are looking for a straightforward calculation of the global warming that greenhouse gas emissions will bring. What are the physics equations and data on gases that predict just how far the temperature will rise? A natural question, when public expositions of the greenhouse effect usually present it as a matter of elementary physics. These people, typically senior engineers, get suspicious when experts seem to evade their question. Some try to work out the answer themselves (Lord Monckton for example) and complain that the experts dismiss their beautiful logic.
The engineers’ demand that the case for dangerous global warming be proved with a page or so of equations does sound reasonable, and it has a long history. The history reveals how the nature of the climate system inevitably betrays a lover of simple answers. . . link"
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
FYI:
The CO2 problem in 6 easy steps
We often get requests to provide an easy-to-understand explanation for why increasing CO2 is a significant problem without relying on climate models and we are generally happy to oblige. The explanation has a number of separate steps which tend to sometimes get confused and so we will try to break it down carefully. . .
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm
Basic Radiation CalculationsThe foundation of any calculation of the greenhouse effect was a description of how radiation and heat move through a slice of the atmosphere. At first this foundation was so shaky that nobody could trust the results. With the coming of digital computers and better data, scientists gradually worked through the intricate technical problems. A rough idea was available by the mid 1960s, and by the late 1970s, the calculations looked solid — for idealized cases. Much remained to be done to account for all the important real-world factors, especially the physics of clouds. (This genre of one-dimensional and two-dimensional models lay between the rudimentary, often qualitative models covered in the essay on Simple Models of Climate and the elaborate three-dimensional General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere.) Warning: this is the most technical of all the essays. K
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~