Tuesday, June 19, 2012

James Hansen’s climate forecast of 1988: a whopping 150% wrong

 Since I'm already involved in a Hansen discussion thread over at the SkepticSociety's forum I found this recent post and the comments following another sad example of so-called "skeptics" ability to twist facts and avoid reality. 

James Hansen’s climate forecast of 1988: a whopping 150% wrong 
Posted on June 15, 2012 by Anthony Watts
"From their Die kalte Sonne website, Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning put up this guest Post by Prof. Jan-Erik Solheim (Oslo) on Hansen’s 1988 forecast, and show that Hansen was and is, way off the mark. h/t to Pierre Gosselin of No Tricks Zone and WUWT reader tips.

. . . The CO2 emissions since 2000 to about 2.5 percent per year has increased, so that we would expect according to the Hansen paper a temperature rise, which should be stronger than in model A. Figure 1 shows the three Hansen scenarios and the real measured global temperature curve are shown.
The protruding beyond Scenario A arrow represents the temperature value that the Hansen team would have predicted on the basis of a CO 2 increase of 2.5%. Be increased according to the Hansen’s forecast, the temperature would have compared to the same level in the 1970s by 1.5 ° C. In truth, however, the temperature has increased by only 0.6 ° C.

It is apparent that the next to it by the Hansen group in 1988 modeled temperature prediction by about 150%. . ."
To come to my aid explaining the actual science behind all of this, along with The Rest Of The Story is Dana1981 from over at SkepticalScience.com.


Simply Wrong: Jan-Erik Solheim on Hansen 1988 (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 19 June 2012 by dana1981 The myth that Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong is one of those zombie myths that always keeps coming back even after you chop its head off time and time again.  The newest incarnation of this myth comes from Jan-Erik Solheim, who in a 272 word article promoted…

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