The illusion of a warming slow down examined

Now that I finished my previous post, I figure it's time to bring it back to the bottom-line.

A warming planet energizes weather systems, feeding them with more moisture and heat, inevitably producing wilder, more destructive extreme weather events of a wide variety.

Although Earth has always experienced periods of dramatic climate fluctuations, those transitions have always been destructive to the systems that developed under the older climate regime.  Meaning just because the Earth will adjust to whatever humans toss at it, those adjustments will take centuries to millennia and do little for the world we have come to know and love.  

We are playing for keeps.  

In the following article {which I Repost thanks to SkepticalScience.com's generous sharing policy} Dana Nuccitelli's gives an update of the latest scientific findings:

Global warming is unpaused and stuck on fast forward, new research shows (via Skeptical Science)

Posted on 10 December 2013 by dana1981 New research by Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research investigates how the warming of the Earth's climate has behaved over the past 15 years compared with the previous…

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Denierland's beacon of truth - The Thirteen Claims Exposed

During my 'conversations' in the comments section of the YouTube video "Denier land: How deniers view global warming" a character who fancies himself a beacon of truth challenged me with the following:

"no scientist has ever proven CO2 effects Earth's atmosphere."
Meanwhile, human-caused climate change is an observed fact.
Oh, really? 

1. The Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by a record extent this year.
2. The Arctic has rebounded in recent years since the low point in 2007.
3. Polar bears are thriving.
4. Sea level is not showing acceleration and is actually dropping.
5. Cholera and Malaria are failing to follow global warming predictions.
6. Mount Kilimanjaro melt fears are being made a mockery by gains in snow cover.
7. Global temperatures have been holding steady for a decade or more.
8. Deaths due to extreme weather are radically declining.
9. Global tropical cyclone activity is near historic low
10. The frequency of major U.S. hurricanes has declined.
11. The oceans are missing their predicted heat content.
12. Big tornados have dramatically declined since the 1970s.
13. Droughts are not historically unusual. 

Soooo,  what human-caused climate change are you referring to, exactly?"

It's a typical selection of denialists claims, and in fact, Google Searches come up with pages worth of cloned articles on each of these sound-bites - the trail points towards Anthony Watts and Marc Morano and pals being the original authors, and now, with their followers they sure have figured out how to wallpaper the internet.

In the following I share links to evidence disputing everyone of these misleading claims.

Off Topic - but worth it. "Ancient Landscapes in Motion"

I'm going to go off topic for this post, though come to think of it, it isn't that far off topic since learning about this incredible planet I was born into, has been my passion from earliest memories.  This in turn, is why I've been paying attention to the developing scientific global warming story since I was fourteen.  And four decades of that has, in turn, lead to this website.  

But, for now I want to focus on the much more enjoyable topic of our fantastic planet's geologic evolution, which after all, is what made this frightening Anthropocene epoch possible in the first place.

I also want to plead the case for someone investing the support to develop the most astounding geologic maps yet, into a stunning, eye opening, high quality animation of landscapes in motion, or to be more direct the birth of our continent.  (The reference to Telluride, CO is because the Four Corners Free Press get's circulated up there.  A call from Sundance would do just fine too.  ;-}  )

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This is the sequel to my Four Corners Free Press article:

Understanding "Ancient Landscapes" of the Colorado Plateau

http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2013/09/understanding-ancient-landscapes-of.html

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Back, in 1979, through a series of serendipitous cross-country hitch-hiking adventures I found myself driving down into Silverton, Colorado (elevation 9,318') and it was love at first sight, the setting, the town, the people, the community. Before I went to sleep that evening I knew it was going to be home for a long time. Indeed, I lived there for six years going strong, when a woman's love proved stronger and down to the "banana-belt" I scampered.

But, it's the mountains and geology I want to write about in this essay. Today I smile thinking back on that young buck looking down his nose at the jumbled mess of rocks that was the Rocky Mountains. Layers going this way and that way, hard layers on top of soft layers, cliff faces that seemed trustworthy, then crumbled and killed. I was unimpressed.

Back then, the Rocky's seemed

How much are we warming our planet ?

I've added a new feature to this website, and though it upsets Anthony Watts and other climate science denialists to no end, it should be pointed out that comparing the energy release of the Hiroshima bomb has been used countless times when trying to put energy release of various events into a more tangible perspective.  In other words, Anthony's whining is yet another phony dodge to waste time and avoid learning.

As for respecting the Hiroshima and Nagasaki victims of the Bomb - I would turn that around and ask what about respecting the future and the lives of our children and their children ? !  

NOAA Paleoclimatology - Summary of 100 Year Time Scale

I've been looking at 13 claims made by someone who fancies himself a 'man of truth' at the discussion section of the video "Denier land: How deniers view global warming."  It certainly is a good representation of what climate science deniers believe - and the mental gymnastics they must resort to in order to hang on to their faith. 

While looking at sources to respond to his 13 claims I came across this interesting overview at the NOAA Paleoclimatology website that seemed like an appropriate introduction to the posts that will be following this one.  It's a historic overview of climate changes and highlights of the past century.

Follow the money... why do people go along with it ?

A new study adds some more substance to what many know: a very few, very rich men have been playing puppet masters and driving the "climate-change counter movement's" publicity campaign which is solely dedicated to stonewalling all substantive efforts to understand and mitigate what we are doing to our atmosphere.

The real tragedy is that these groups use blatantly phony tactics, repeatedly misrepresent science.  They spend most their effort manufacturing scandals, witch-hunts, and character assassination   -  in ways that an informed public ought to be able to see through.  But, Americans seem to have become so Hollywood-ized that they don't care to differentiate between a con job and honest professionalism anymore: "Just tell us what we want to hear."

Why?  Is it because we have come to expect that every material desire is our birth-right and damn anything or anyone who dares suggest otherwise?

But, the reality is that this isn't the 1970s anymore. 
It's not about climatologists making conjectures anymore!

Our planet's Arctic Ice cap is disappearing at an astounding rate;
and the rest of the cryosphere isn't doing much better;
the planet as a whole continues warming; 
the Jet Stream continues getting weirder;
driving ever more extreme weather patterns and infrastructure damaging events.

CO2 IS an key greenhouse gas and does act as atmospheric insulation;
Society IS, in essence, adding extra thermo blankets onto our planet and the warming will continue.

This isn't open to rational debate anymore, the evidence has become too overwhelming.

But, it sure is open to endless irrational stonewalling 

V_2009 asks, "CC - Are you denying…"

{edited 8:30 am - 12/16/2013}

I was working on my compilation of comments at the "Denier Land: How deniers view global warming" YouTube's site - but made the mistake of peeking at new comments, thus I got side-tracked by this series of questions that was too precious not to do something with.

My "antagonist's" words are in Courier font.

V_2009 asks, CC -

Are you denying that the Sun is our planet's main source of energy?

"Denier land: How deniers view global warming"

{edited 12/25/13}

A video review,

"How 'Skeptics' and 'Realists' view global warming."

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Last week someone posted a comment at my post "HotWhopper.com's Climate history highlights from old Australian newspapers" that only consisted of a link to an outlandish YouTube video.  
After viewing the video I deleted the comment and posted the following message:

"Dear Anonymous,
I do have a comments policy.
I will not post rantings.
If you have something to say, or a video to link to, present it seriously and if you (or your video link) make claims, those claims must be supported with authoritative sources."

Then, I looked at the YouTube video again and made a comment, which has led to quite an interesting back and forth.  The dialogue has packed in many denier myths and tactics and I hope to compile a collection in my next post - but first I want to review the video itself:

The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine Petition on climate change

I've been carrying on a conversation over at a weird little YouTube video named "Denier land: How deniers view global warming."  The thing is a textbook example of what's called an "Argument from Incredulity."  Meaning that the person is flailing at information that he obviously doesn't understand, like a petulant school boy angry at a teacher who's just flunked him.

Rather than trying to learn something from that information he hides behind ridicule while ignoring all he doesn't understand.  I know many people behave like that, but it's definitely no way to learn anything.

In any event, I've been commenting over there and some folks keep challenging me with different, not new, twists on the climate science skeptics handbook of excuses for ignoring what a world wide community of tens of thousands of professionals and experts agree on.

For example, take the following claim:

""More than 2,000 scientists from 154 countries typically participate in the IPCC process" 

That is not only dishonest but unimpressive too. Over 30,000 scientists in the USA alone signed a petition disagreeing. Prominent scientists around the world with far more credibility than the anonymous 2000 so-called scientists agree with those 30,000. 

You could dispute these figures, as many are not in relevant fields and many do not have higher degree or research backgrounds. However if you did so you admit to your dishonesty, as most of the 2000+ you claim are not researchers, most are not experts in their fields and many do not have PhDs, unlike over 9000 of those in those 30,000."

That, along with other pitches for the "OISM Petition," has inspired me to compose this compilation of information regarding the Oregon Petition, finishing with a REPOST of a DeSmogBlog story examining Arthur Robinson and his one-man operation, the so-called "Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine"

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises (2013)

{edited 9:30am - 12/8/2013}

There's a new report hot off the National Academies Press.  What can I say, it paints a troubling picture of where our society's failure of stewardship for our one and only planet's biosphere is leading us.

As a spectator who remembers his young adulthood of adventure and discovery in the world of the 70s, I'm heartbroken at the degradation caused by the contempt so many display for our natural "environment" and the prevailing disregard for any "stewardship responsibility" towards our planet.  We humans have become a lazy bunch and adapt to change too easily and too many seem oblivious to all the natural wonders and wide open stretches of life-supporting biosphere that have disappeared over the past decades, to say nothing of the past couple centuries.

Back in the 70s a lot of global warming science details were educated speculation.  Backed by serious science for sure, and the bottom-line was solid if simple:  increasing our atmosphere's insulating ability would lead to warming our planet. and that such a warming will have significant impacts upon our climate, aka. global heat distribution engine, the thing that sustains our lives and life styles.

Here we are after decades of hollow assurances and PR crazy-making from the likes of the Wattzers and McIntyres fueled by certain politically motivated "think tanks" such as Heartland Institute with their fancy word games and emotional manipulation and demonizing of everyone who doesn't parrot their message (which is devoid of any interest in learning) - well folks, the speculation has become reality before our eyes and the future promises hard times like none of us have ever known.  Yet the climate science denialists just keep getting shriller and more vicious toward decent people, while the public allows them to get away with it, probably because they have too many worries and other priorities already.

Well the beat goes on folks, here's but the latest report... with many more to come.

But, what good are all these reports and repeated warnings so long as we collectively refuse to face the issue and learn about it in a serious rational manner, and then start taking substantive action?

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change:

Anticipating Surprises (2013)

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18373

Authors

Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts;
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate;
Division on Earth and Life Studies;
National Research Council

Description

Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain -- there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible?

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior.

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

The table of contents

• Front Matteri-xii 

• Summary1-14 

• 1 Introduction15-30 

• 2 Abrupt Changes of Primary Concern31-100 

• 3 Areas of Concern for Humans from Abrupt Changes101-116 

• 4 The Way Forward117-136 

• References137-184 

• Appendix A--Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

HotWhopper.com's Climate history highlights from old Australian newspapers

A walk down memory lane.    
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This morning I awoke to an interesting article over at HotWhopper.com, it's a reproduction of a 1884 newspaper article in the Australian newspaper "Border Watch" titled "Cold And Heat Near The Poles."  In it the author discusses the discovery of fossil traces of tropical flora in the Arctic and the implications that Earth's climate was variable.

It then went on to discuss Earth's early atmosphere, it's interaction with the lithosphere, and the ability of certain gases to retain heat trying to escape into the cold vacuum of space.  The article ends with:

"... Many ingenious hypotheses have been proposed to account for the warmer climate of earlier times, but are at best unsatisfactory; and it appears to me that the true solution of the problem may be found in the constitution of the early atmosphere, when considered in the light of Dr. Tyndall's beautiful researches on radiant heat. 

James L. Powell PhD Examines: "What AGW Consensus?"

{final edit 12/5, 18:45}

This website will be changing its character over the next couple months.  Up to now I've seen it as a kind of Information Kiosk, but I believe it's time to get a bit more personal and expand on the 'virtual dialogue' I've been pursuing through various venues.

You see, considering the steady stream of venomous personal attacks I've experienced while traversing the internet  -  and realizing that this is exactly what every person, who has ever talks about the 'State of Climate Science' (and the dangers manmade global warming is creating for the wellbeing of the future), has been put through - I figure it's time to stop ignoring the behavior.  

There needs to be more done to expose this tactic of hysterical personalizing and demonizing for the cynical act of misdirection that it is.  We need to learn about and discuss the substance of the problem and the science, not get distracted by contrived scandal and hurtful personal attacks.

I'm thinking of fighting back by getting down'n personal myself, but I intend to be more constructive about it, since learning and teaching, not bullying, is my ultimate goal.  Besides, I've led an interesting multi-faceted life and may as well share some of it before it's over.   Towards that end, I will try to approach this blog as a journal project of sorts.  Won't happen immediately, lots of other things going on, besides I've never been able to keep a journal so it's something I'm going to have to work into.  But, I did want to mention it.

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Finally, to the feature of this post, which I'll admit is a direct reaction to some of the relentless vile, misrepresentations and hate mongering of a certain debating-mate over at SkepticForum.  

The character keeps getting spookier in it's attacks on SkepticalScience.com  for being who they are -  that is - an information resource that provides peer-reviewed published science papers in a learning atmosphere geared to the lay-public.  Articles that are well researched and linked back to original sources, followed by one of the healthiest comments/discussion boards on the internet.

I'm still trying to comprehend how the SkepticalScience's style of open exchange of valid information can be rejected by rational people.