Friday, March 14, 2014

Global Warming "Hiatus" and the Global Heat Distribution Engine

Over at SkepticForum I continue hearing echo's of David Rose's erroneous claim that 'global warming stopped 16 years ago' and it makes no sense to me how such a disingenuous hoax lives on and on.

When I hear someone write or say there's been a pause in global warming, or some hiatus, I know I'm dealing with someone who doesn't have any conception of our planet's dynamic multi-layered climate system, it's sad. Worst is when they refuse to look at genuine information and learn from it.

If these types had a conception of heat and energy moving throughout our planet, they would appreciate that the global ocean plays a huge roll in heat absorption and circulation.  That's why I've collected this series of excellent educational videos to share.

It would be wonderful imagining skeptical folks giving this information a chance to soak in.  Understanding that scientific measurements do the best they can with what they have and they'll never be perfect.  But, that shouldn't stop us from learning what we can from the information they can gather.   Maybe then they'd realize that setting impossibly high expectations harms us all.

It is well known that our planet is accumulating heat and that about 90% of that heat has been going into the oceans.  It may not be on the surface, but it is certainly not missing.  Refusing to accept such basic facts is evidence of some serious "disconnect" going on.

I can appreciate where it comes from.  Consumerism, the Boob-Tube, the total plug into electronics, our frenetic driven lives, consumerism shoved down our throats at every turn, the joys and comforts of a prosperous modern life.  It's easy to lose sight of what's going on in the biosphere outside of the light-domes of our cities.

Still, believe it, or not, we do depend on a healthy biosphere for everything.  

That's why I can't comprehend why my "right-wing" friends looks at "environmentalism" with such contempt.  Guess they are following the lead of right-wing think-tanks with their strategic attack on good science, and experienced professionals who communicate serious issues and show concern for the future.  

For example, Morano's ClimateDepot machine has made an art form of melodramatizing decent honest scientists into arch enemies of the Republican set, it's sad, down right disgusting actually, and has nothing to do learning or constructively dealing with the world we are building.

I'm posting this because I wanted to present a collection of YouTube videos, they clearly explain what part of climate science is settled science.

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First a simple review of the "settled climate science" :
GHGs are for real, and scientists understand them very well. 
Phenomenal amounts have been injected into our atmosphere. 
We have increased our planet's main insulation medium (read GHGs) by a third. 
We have increased our planet's insulation.   
Warming our planet will, must, alter weather pattern and eco-systems, it's never been otherwise, it's geophysics.   
That means our planet's global heat distribution engine is going to get super-charged, more heat, moisture, energy,  it is simple physics, can't be denied.  All of McIntyre, Watts, et al. games do is distract attention from the really important news.  Playing contrarian and focusing on fringe minutia to ignore the big picture is politics, got nothing to do with learning what's happening on our planet.

I offer the following supporting evidence for my opinions:

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Earth From Space HD
The groundbreaking two-hour special that reveals a spectacular new space-based vision of our planet. Produced in extensive consultation with NASA scientists, NOVA takes data from earth-observing satellites and transforms it into dazzling visual sequences, each one exposing the intricate and surprising web of forces that sustains life on earth.
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Climate change the state of the science 
(data visualization) 

Published on Nov 19, 2013 
Produced by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and Globaia and funded by the UN Foundation.  
The data visualization summarises and visualizes several of the most significant statements in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) recent Fifth Assessment Report, (Working Group I summary for policymakers, the Physical Science Basis). 
In 2014, IPCC will publish summaries concerning societal impacts, mitigation and adaptation. 
The statements and facts presented are derived from the IPCC summary for policymakers.
Download the IPCC Working Group I summary for policymakers (The Physical Science Basis) here: 
Produced and directed by
Owen Gaffney and Félix Pharand-Deschênes
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Then there is Richard Alley explaining the CO2 rock cycle and about the incredibly high CO2 levels during deep time.  Ignoring this is intellectual dishonesty.

Richard Alley: "The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate History"

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Man Made Climate Change in 7 Minutes

{although he should call it, 500 million years of our climate's evolution in 7minutes} 

Uploaded on May 26, 2009 
The first installment of ThinkAboutIt`s series on Climate Change. This video is the pre-cursor, the basics and introduction to the series. Further videos will explain the mechanisms of current climate change, myths and misinformation regarding current climate change, and potential effects of climate change in the future. 
Royal Society of Biological Sciences: "A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record." 
Peter M., Gareth J., & Timothy B.
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Climate Change 1958: The Bell Telephone Science Hour 

Uploaded on Nov 10, 2010
Support Climate Denial Crock of the Week- go to: 
The famous Bell Telephone Hour clip, with the all knowing Dr Frank Baxter explaining a very modern understanding of climate science in 1958.
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Gilbert Plass 1955 "Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change"

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Is Global Warming Hiding Underwater?

Published on Feb 7, 2014 
Sea-surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea from January 2011 to May 2012 as measured by multiple Earth-observation missions. 
Satellite observations of global sea-surface temperature show that a 30-year upward trend has slowed down within the last 15 years. Climate scientists say this is not the end of global warming, but the result of a rearrangement in the energy flow of the climate system and, in particular, how the ocean stores heat. 
Like flying thermometers, some satellites carry instruments that provide a global view of the surface temperature of oceans and seas. Measuring the sea-surface temperature is important for improving weather and ocean forecasting and climate change research. 
Satellite and local readings show that sea-surface temperature has been rising rapidly since the 1970s, in line with the overall warming of our planet. But this increase has significantly slowed in the last 15 years. 
In contrast, other variables such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, rising sea levels and declining Arctic sea ice have not experienced the same reduction in trend and therefore demonstrate that Earth's climate continues to change. 
Scientists have speculated that one of the causes of this 'plateau' in sea-surface temperature could be a change in the exchange of ocean water between warm, surface waters and cold, deep waters below 700 m -- as if the warming is 'hiding' underwater. Temperature measurements at this depth cover a relatively short period. 
But the warm water won't hide below the surface forever: scientists believe that it may
re-emerge later or affect other climate indicators, such as sea level or ocean circulation.
Read more:
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Dr. Thomas Bogdan | Clearing the Air: A Physicist Takes a Long, Hard Look at Climate Change

Published on Feb 19, 2014 
Dr. Thomas J. Bogdan, President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, talks about how our planet is entering an unprecedented era, sometimes called the Anthropocene, in which the increasing concentrations of various chemical species and aerosols, produced by human activity, are influencing the atmosphere today and will do so for centuries to come. Politics, competing agendas, and confusion among policy makers and the public too often shroud this simple fact. 
The role of natural variability has recently emerged as one of the most important, and at the same time one of the most poorly understood, aspects of our changing climate. It is especially prone to misinterpretation. 
For example, the slowdown in the observed global temperature increase over the last 15 years does not mean the factors that contribute to long-term greenhouse warming have abated. Likewise, although the rapid warming across most of the planet during the 1980s and 1990s is believed to be mainly related to greenhouse gas increases, parts of the eastern Pacific simultaneously showed measurable cooling. 
This makes it all the more important that we redouble our efforts to understand the complex workings of our coupled global ocean-atmosphere-biosphere system. ...

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1 comment:

citizenschallenge said...

Just came across this interesting article about an eye opening study:


Climate forecasts are accurate. Fact.

Those who argue against climate change have always sought to discredit the science – the models used by climate forecasters in particular. They insist such predictions are simply too inaccurate and uncertain to warrant taking action, but new NEF research shows this just isn’t true.

We now have over twenty years’ worth of forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Despite an endless barrage of criticism in the media, these forecasts are proving themselves to be highly accurate.

As shown below, actual year-on-year trends in carbon concentrations, global temperatures and sea-levels have aligned strongly with the original IPCC forecasts, and the majority of climatic changes fell within the range predicted. Climate science is earning its stripes: . . .
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Model Behaviour -