another eye opener.)
1. Claim: “These rapid increases in sea level are – as you might have guessed – caused by the rapid melting of glaciers.”
Wrong. The big rise in sea level in prehistoric times was due to the melting of enormous ice sheets which covered much of the globe, as far south as today’s New York City. It was not due to the tiny changes in advance and retreat of glaciers that we see these days.
There are only two places left where there are really large amounts of water locked up in grounded ice: Antarctica and Greenland.
Neither will melt anytime soon.
Even the alarmist IPCC’s TAR noted, “It is now widely agreed that major loss of grounded ice and accelerated sea level rise [from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet] are very unlikely during the 21st century.” (The larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the coldest place on earth, and hasn’t melted in millions of years.)
Nor is Greenland a cause for worry. Greenland is colder now than it was in the 1930s and 1940s, and much colder than during the Medieval Warm Period (~800-1100 yrs ago), neither of which saw catastrophic sea level rise from any Greenland ice sheet “tipping point.”
2. Claim: “Greenhouse gas emissions are causing sea level to rise via “thermal expansion” (warming a liquid increases it’s volume) and by melting mountain glaciers. Until human activities increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere, global sea level had been relatively stable for several thousand years…”
Wrong. Although the average rate of sea level rise increased as the Little Ice Age ended, ALL of the acceleration in rate of sea level rise occurred BEFORE there was a substantial anthropogenic CO2 contribution. The big increase in atmospheric CO2 levels over the last 3/4 century has not resulted in ANY acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.
The TAR noted the “observational finding of no acceleration in sea level rise during the 20th century.”
Moreover, although thermal expansion does cause satellite-measured mid-ocean sea level to rise, it does not necessarily cause coastal sea level to rise. If deep-ocean water were to expand, it would, indeed, affect coastal sea levels. But when surface water warms, it rises in place, like ice, and its displacement is unaffected, so it does not affect coastal sea levels.I probably don’t need to point out the flaw in this crazy logic to many SeaMonster readers. Besides, the deep ocean is warming.
Claim: “The rate of sea level rise appears to be accelerating”
Wrong. Both tide gauges records and satellites show NO statistically significant acceleration over the last 3/4 century. The best studies show either linear trend or a slight deceleration.
5a. Claim: “How much sea level rise should we expect this century? … Observed sea level rise is tracking at the upper range of model predictions…”
Wrong. Your fig. 6 conflates tide gauge and satellite measurements, creating the ILLUSION of acceleration where none actually exists.
a graph of just 40 years is insufficient to discern long term trends,
5b. Claim: “An alternative way to predict future sea level rise is from the known relationship between sea level and global temperature from the recent and distant past (Vermeer 2009)…”
Wrong. The Rahmstorf/Vermeer approach has been thoroughly discredited, and that Fig. 7 graph is nonsense. If you look at real tide gauge data from the best tide gauges, it looks nothing at all like that. E.g.,
The big rise in sea level in prehistoric times was due to the melting of enormous ice sheets which covered much of the globe, as far south as today’s New York City
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