Yesterday a casual google search triggered a flurry of recent stories from a spectrum of news outlets, most with breathless headlines about two years of global temperature drop - that leaves me stupefied. Too many of these stories with all their handwringing and confused writing either ignore or bury the fact that they are discussing Earth's surface temperatures. Why can't we get the simplest principles straight? It's the atmospheric insulation silly! Right, Left, malicious and well-meaning, what up? We live upon a Global Heat and Moisture Distribution Engine!
Our Surface Temperature represents about 10% of our Global Climate Engine's total heat content. The oceans contain the other 90% of global climate temperatures, for christ sake stop ignoring that! Enunciate how our planet operates. Surface temperatures fluctuate, distribution patterns of surface heat are immensely complex, so what? The fundamental physical reality that no one cares to hammer home is that our global heat and moisture distribution engine is accumulating a known amount of extra warming 24/7/365 and the reasons are well understood, and the amounts are well known.
But don’t take my word for it, listen to a real expert Josh Willis PhD explain the deniable, but unavoidable, physical reality. First a quickie, then another talk with a bit more details, followed by some visualizations of Earth’s temperature rise to put these fluctuations into realistic perspective.
NASA | Ask a Climate Scientist: Global Warming Pause?
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Charting Irreversible Climate Change with Jason-3
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Streamed live on Feb 12, 2015
As humans drive Earth's climate into a new regime, it is critical to keep our fingers on the pulse of the planet. Sea level rise is both a stark reminder of our impact on the climate and its impact on us. The oceans capture over 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, expanding as they warm.
They also collect water from melting glaciers and ice sheets, making sea level rise a doubly important indicator of global warming. Without adaptation, a 2-meter rise would displace 187 million people worldwide. Sea level will continue to rise, but how fast? Like its predecessors, Jason-3 will serve as our eyes on sea level rise. Measuring global sea level once every 10 days, it will chart out the global rise of the oceans--a rise that is unlikely to subside or reverse for generations.
But Jason-3 will be more than a sentinel of climate change. It will also measure the tilt of the ocean surface providing oceanographers with information about ocean currents, measure wind and waves helping forecasters predict marine weather, and even find local warm spots that can intensify hurricanes.
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Animation: How temperature has changed in each country since 1900
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yIHxOui9nQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yIHxOui9nQ
Carbon Brief Published on Aug 2, 2017
How has temperature changed in each country over the last century? This data visualisation shows temperature anomaly – the departure from the long-term average – by country from 1900-2016. Visualisation by Antti Lipponen (@anttilip) of the Finnish Meteorological Institute based on GISTEMP data (CC BY 2.0).
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Global temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2017
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Scientists rule out imminent sun induced cooling of climate
December 6, 2018, CESSI - phys.org
The sun's activity influences environmental conditions in space adversely affecting satellites and space-based technologies such as telecommunications and navigational networks. The sun is also the primary natural source of energy for the Earth's climate. The sun's activity level changes but predicting these changes has been challenging. Now a team of two scientists from the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India at IISER Kolkata has come out with a prediction for the upcoming sunspot cycle which reveals the expected conditions in space over the next decade. Their research work appears today in the journal Nature Communications. …
… Their ensemble forecast surprisingly suggests it could even be stronger than the cycle which is just ending. They expect the next cycle to start rising in about a year following the end of the current sunspot cycle minimum and peak in 2024. Bhowmik and Nandi predict space environmental conditions over the next decade would be similar or slightly harsher compared to the last decade. They find no evidence of an impending disappearance of sunspot cycles and thus conclude that speculations of an imminent sun-induced cooling of global climate is very unlikely.
More information: Prantika Bhowmik et al. Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions, Nature Communications (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0
Journal reference: Nature Communications
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Keep in mind,
it’s the atmospheric insulation doing the heavy lifting
during Earth’s anthropogenic global warming epoch.
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P.S.
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P.S.
A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence
{ hat tip to https://www.skepticalscience.com/new_research_20181217.html }
James S Risbey1 , Stephan Lewandowsky1,2 , Kevin Cowtan3 , Naomi Oreskes4, , Stefan Rahmstorf5,6, , Ari Jokimäki7 and Grant Foster8
Published 19 December 2018 • © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
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Abstract
This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.
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