Saturday, October 9, 2021

Diary, responding to Dr. J.W. Geier (21-10-09) It's not the sun, or bad models.

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John W. Geier MD, commented at 

Robert Holmes aka 1000Frolly PhD. Conman is, as Conman does.


The main science issue is that the Earth cannot act as its own experimental control.

Computer models of the Earth’s climate reflect the biases and knowledge gaps of the modellers and amplify errors over time.

It is unfortunate that the other terrestrial planets in this solar system are quite different from Earth.

The climate is a holistic function of the stellar flux, atmosphere and distribution of land and ocean on a planet.

september 28, 2021 at 10:53 PM

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{ I’ve been busy with chores, so not much going on at my blogs.  Getting an intelligent comment, let alone any serious discussion, is fairly rare, so sometimes there's many days where I don't bother checking my comments folder.  

This morning I found a comment from a couple weeks ago (how the time flies) it was refreshingly coherent, at least against the backdrop of what I usually get, and it offers me something worth discussing. The sort of comment I feel obligated to post and respond it.  

Dr. John Geier's comment fits that bill.  Even if I believe he's being deceptive, and missing the forest for the trees.  Thing is, I imagine he might well be deceiving himself first and foremost.  Which is why I want to try and explain what he's missing, hopefully doing a little better than the time before.}

©citizenschallenge 1993citizenschallenge responds to Dr. Geier …

With all due respect Dr. Geier, that is nonsense. We know plenty well what is going on within our global heat and moisture distribution engine. Science has been intensely studying our atmosphere since the 1940s - nature is not some trickster and we don't need another Earth to experiment with in order to understand how our Earth's geosphere/biosphere behaves.

Why do you set impossible expectations? 

We do our best with the information scientists have been collecting and studying. While you rather pretend scientists are missing a lot. 

Your thinking can only come from not doing your homework! Not learning from the substantive evidence that is available about what Earth and climate scientists have learned and taught us!

As for your holistic. That means starting with the realization that Anthropogenic Global Warming happens high up in our atmosphere and is driven by society increasing our planet's atmospheric insulation. 

Thus retaining more heat within our global heat and moisture distribution engine. Of course, the sun is roasting the equator 24/7/365 and drives the entire climate engine, but there has been no significant fluctuations in that, so stop embracing that LIE!

What there has been is a skyrocketing of additional atmospheric greenhouse gases. Simple as that. Physics, math.

Then, once we are within that global climate engine, things do get really complicated, as we are faced with incomprehensible complexities of heat being moved throughout the entire complex global system. All of it operated by simple, understandable, fundamentals.  There's much about the details to be learned - but that doesn't give you a right to ignore all that we have learned and all that experts do understand and can teach to anyone acting in good faith and with a spirit of honest curiosity.

What's unfortunate is intelligent people like you deluding themselves behind layers of dishonest rhetorical bullshit - when the fundamental physical facts are pretty damned straightforward.

I bet I know what's at the root of your blinders, 1) you hate taxes, 2) the notion of doing with less - is an absolute nonstarter, no matter how harsh the price our children will have to pay.

Best wishes, Cc

October 9, 2021 at 9:10 AM

©citizenschallenge 2021

Is the Sun causing global warming?

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Oh and regarding Geier's insinuation that climate models are hobbled by unchecked bias and knowledge gaps, it's also disingenuous.  Scientists are constantly using Earth's own behavior and observation based data to calibrate their models against!  Why pretend that isn't so Dr. Geier?

Climate models have actually been quite accurate, if anything rather conservative regarding impacts.

Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

Warren Cornwell , December 4, 2019,

Study debunks idea that older models were inaccurate


Climate Models Got It Right on Global Warming

Even models in the 1970s accurately predicted the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and temperature rise

By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News on December 5, 2019


Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

By Alan Buis, January 9, 2020, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory



Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?

Zeke Hausfather, October 5, 2017, Carbon Brief

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