I will accept these responses from your Heartland Institute podcast as your opening round. I'll offer my rebuttals, evidence and questions. I agree to post your thoughtful responses unaltered. (Though it's looking like you're going to do your best to hide and ignore these critiques of your self-certain claims. Your silence will serve to expose your hypocrisy and inability to defend your statements on an even playing field.)
Steele: Another example, last year NPR and a few media was hyping that Florida's mangroves were marching north because of global warming.
Steele: The red mangroves that declined earlier was because Floridians removed or trimming trees that blocked their water front views. There were black mangroves that suffered because to control mosquitoes they were artificially flooding swamps to greater depths that would drown out the mangroves.
More important, he pointed out that you are correct about what you say, but that it doesn't relate to their study. A non sequitur so to speak.
You come across as though you are baffled that intelligent people would conclude that warming impacts eco-systems? What's up with that?
Steele: So the study that began (1984) after a freeze (1983) that decimated a bunch of mangroves and they looked at how they were coming back and said oh look global warming is forcing them to march northward (¿What about 1985?).
Actually this study certainly did take an epic hard freeze event into account... and to a level of detail and complexity well beyond your grade school description.
"... Coastal areas across Florida experienced a decrease in mangrove area after a hard freeze during the winter of 1989 to 1990 (Fig. 2). Recovery from this freeze event was variable in space, but, on regional scales, mangrove area in all of the 0.25° latitudinal bands recovered to pre-1989 levels within 9 yr.
"Between 1984 and 2011, coastal weather stations along the same coastline recorded a general increase in temperature: mean annual temperature increased at five of eight weather stations and mean winter temperature increased at seven of eight stations (Table S2). However, only the northern stations documented significant decreases in the frequency of extreme cold events (i.e., days colder than −4 °C; Table S2). …"
PNAS | January 14, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 2 | page 724http://www.pnas.org/content/111/2/723.full.pdf+html
Steele: And everybody hyped that.
Steele: But the truth was they were recovering due to conservation efforts.
So far all you have displayed is cynical poking at the solid edifice of climate understanding. Worse, you ignore corrections when they are shared and there's nothing about constructive learning within your crusade.
Steele: They were recovering from a natural freeze cycle that had nothing to do with global warming, but I would have people saying, well ha, what about the mangroves, that proof of global warming. And all that hype kind of continues.
"Finally as pointed out by Dr. Roger Pielke, the mangroves were decimated by extensive freezes in 1983. Much of the contrast between present and past canopy that Cavanaugh's paper attributed to global warming was an artifact of the canopy's recovery from the 1984 freeze. Staring their trend in 1984, the year immediately after the big freeze skewed the data. To appreciate just how misleading Cavanaugh's interpretation was, ... "
"Mangroves: Another Conservation Success Story Hijacked by Climate Alarmists"
"Good science demands that all confounding factors be discussed and evaluated but in these days of climate fear, all a study needs to do is uncritically blame CO2 for any change."
Here are a few quotes from the Cavanaugh, et. al 2013 study, although the complete version is much more interesting, check it out:
"Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events"
Cavanaugh, Kellner, Forde, Gruner, Parker, Rodriguez, Feller
'… The “velocity” of climate-driven change appears greatest in the coastal zone (14), a region that includes more than 70% of the world’s population and some of our most biologically productive ecosystems (15). …"PNAS | January 14, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 2 | 723_____________________________Results"The area of mangrove forests increased dramatically between 1984 and 2011 near the northern range limit of mangroves in Florida (Fig. 1). Over this time period, the spatial extent of mangroves between 29° and 29.75°N doubled (Table S1). A distinct division in the dynamics of mangroves was evident near 26.75°N (Fig. 1B); coastal zones to the north of this latitude showed increases in mangrove area whereas zones to the south showed little change or small decreases in area. ...""... Coastal areas across Florida experienced a decrease in mangrove area after a hard freeze during the winter of 1989 to 1990 (Fig. 2). Recovery from this freeze event was variable in space, but, on regional scales, mangrove area in all of the 0.25° latitudinal bands recovered to pre-1989 levels within 9 yr. ..."PNAS | January 14, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 2 | 724_____________________________Discussion"Our results indicate that mangroves are expanding poleward along the east coast of North America, and further suggest that this expansion is associated with recent warming. However, the observed expansion on the eastern coast of Florida has been facilitated not by increases in mean temperature, but by decreases in the frequency of discrete cold events. We found that the number of days with minimum temperatures colder than −4 °C represents an ecological threshold for mangrove forests: years in which temperature decreased to less than −4 °C exhibited decreases in mangrove cover (Fig. 4), whereas increases in mangrove area occurred in regions that experienced small reductions in the frequency of days colder than −4 °C between 1984 and 2011 (Table 1) ...""Moreover, experimental studies demonstrated significant mortality of mangrove (Avicennia) seedlings exposed to a temperature of 6.5 °C below zero, but negligible mortality at temperatures near 0 °C (32, 33). Our results demonstrate that a temperature threshold is already evident in the mangrove–salt marsh ecotone of Florida. Relatively small future decreases in the frequency of extreme cold events could lead to further increases in mangrove cover near the current poleward limits of mangrove forests in Florida. Over the past 50 yr, daily minimum temperature has increased faster than daily mean or maximum temperature (34)."PNAS | January 14, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 2 | 725_____________________________"... We examined changes in land cover to determine whether eutrophication from agricultural or urban runoff could be linked to increases in mangrove area. This analysis would also capture large-scale revegetation of abandoned agricultural lands by mangroves if it were occurring. It is unlikely that regional- scale increases in mangrove area would arise from local scale changes in nutrient inputs, sedimentation, or hydrology, as these local drivers typically have local scale impacts (37, 38). Another alternative is that sea level rise has contributed to inland expansion of mangroves across our study area (30). However, this mechanism does not create the positive relationship between latitude and increase in mangrove area we observed. ..."PNAS | January 14, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 2 | 726