Monday, March 23, 2015

#5 Spurious feedback - Dissecting Dr Lindzen's intrinsic obtuseness -

This is the fifth part of my review of an interview by Alex Epstein with Professor Richard Lindzen on his "Power Hour" program.  I've taken the time and trouble to transcribe much of it in order to focus on Lindzen's bizarre version of reality and to juxtapose it against history and the known science.  

In this installment we consider professor Lindzen's obtuse misrepresentation of climate feedback mechanisms.

{ link to part one (the "real" questions)part two (the conspiracy), part three (the government driving AGW), part four (Nature in Balance?) }

Power Hour: Questioning Climate Science with Dr. Richard Lindzen October 22, 2012 | Alex Epstein
Richard Lindzen joins Alex Epstein to talk about perspectives on climate change:
  • Questions about climate
  • “Balance” in nature
  • The goals of environmentalists
1:45  Alex:  Whenever I read one of his (RL) papers I get almost emotional just by the level of clarity and diligence and utter lack of any kind of appeal to authority.
3:05  Lindzen: What bothers me about this issue is the intrinsic obtuseness of the questions. ...
44:30  Lindzen:  In the models used for projecting alarm,the system is riddled with positive feedbacks, were whatever man does is amplified.  
~ ~ ~
Never any attempt to teach anything, it's just a flood of negative opining that we are supposed to accept because the dear professor says so.

And always with the doubt-mongering: "models used for projecting alarm"  Lindzen never acknowledges that the ever improving models are reflecting our real world phenomena plenty accurate and it's the situation, not the models, that is alarming!
- - -
Professor Lindzen wants us to ignore that it's down to Earth observations and not "climate models" that make us sure:

Climate change: How do we know?

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.

Sea level rise

Global temperature rise

Warming oceans

Shrinking ice sheets

Declining Arctic sea ice

Glacial retreat

Extreme events

Ocean acidification

Decreased snow cover

They neglected to mention the "Declining Antarctic glaciers"

Lindzen:  For example, if you just double CO2 and had no feedbacks, and no stabilizing elements, you'd get about a degree of warming. That frankly no one really worries about. 
~ ~ ~
Obtuse like a fox. 
Eliminating feedback is a simplistic concept intended to help teach about the complex mathematics of global heat transfer and climate circulation, it does not reflection our planet.  

Our global heat and moisture distribution system, aka climate system, is nothing if not folds within folds of complex equilibriums and feedbacks.  But, the professor strives to obscure such facts from his audience.  
Lindzen:  The only reason the models predict more, for reasons that seem entirely spurious.  They take whatever we do and amplify it by a factor of four or five.
~ ~ ~
"For reasons that seem entirely spurious" ???
For Lindzen to vaguely insinuate that feedbacks are some contrived construct of scientists is malicious fraud - the kind that ought to be illegal for someone of Dr. Lindzen's professional "expertise" to spread.  Why do people allow it?  

That's not free speech!  Professor Lindzen is maliciously lying, with intent to do harm.  Namely, to hide the real science from people thus denying citizens the right to honestly learn about the critically important facts of global warming and it's resulting climate change.

Of course, to appreciate the extent of the man's lies, one needs to spend some time reading and digesting the available information.  That requires an honest curiosity, something that seems lost to our re-tribalized society.  Still the information is out there, you just gotta poke around.
Global Warming, Clouds, and Albedo: Feedback Loops 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~  
An informal introduction to climate change and the science behind it 
by David Wadlow 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 
A blanket around the Earth 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 
Water vapour (positive feedback) 
Albedo (positive feedback) 
Land carbon cycle (currently negative feedback) 
Clouds (positive and negative feedback) 
Permafrost methane (positive feedback) 
Methane hydrates (positive feedback)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 
While Lindzen wants his audience to think of scientists as clueless opportunists - a look at their work reveals serious skeptical professionals dedicated to precision work and understanding the true facts.  
For example:
Introduction: Mount Pinatubo as a Test of Climate Feedback Mechanisms 
Alan Robock

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 
Climate change: The case of the missing heat
Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation.
Jeff Tollefson | 15 January 2014


Working Group One
The Physical Science Basis
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Summary for Policymakers
A. Introduction
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and incorporates subsequent new findings of research. As a component of the fifth assessment cycle, the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) is an important basis for information on changing weather and climate extremes. ...

B. Observed Changes in the Climate System
Observations of the climate system are based on direct measurements and remote sensing from satellites and other platforms. Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables, with more comprehensive and diverse sets of observations available for the period 1950 onwards. Paleoclimate reconstructions extend some records back hundreds to millions of years. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of the variability and long-term changes in the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere, and the land surface. ...
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased (see Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM.3 and SPM.4). {2.2, 2.4, 3.2, 3.7, 4.2–4.7, 5.2, 5.3, 5.5–5.6, 6.2, 13.2}
B.1 Atmosphere
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). {2.4, 5.3}
B.2  Ocean
Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}
B.3  Cryosphere
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence) (see Figure SPM.3). {4.2–4.7}
B.4  Sea Level
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (see Figure SPM.3). {3.7, 5.6, 13.2}
B.5  Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification (see Figure SPM.4). {2.2, 3.8, 5.2, 6.2, 6.3}

C.  Drivers of Climate Change
Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth’s energy budget are drivers of climate change. 
Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750 (see Figure SPM.5). {3.2, Box 3.1, 8.3, 8.5}

D. Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes
Understanding recent changes in the climate system results from combining observations, studies of feedback processes, and model simulations. 
Evaluation of the ability of climate models to simulate recent changes requires consideration of the state of all modelled climate system components at the start of the simulation and the natural and anthropogenic forcing used to drive the models. 
Compared to AR4, more detailed and longer observations and improved climate models now enable the attribution of a human contribution to detected changes in more climate system components. ...
Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. {2–14}
D.1  Evaluation of Climate Models
Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental- scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence). {9.4, 9.6, 9.8}
D.2  Quantification of Climate System Responses 
Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1} 
D.3  Detection and Attribution of Climate Change
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (see Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. {10.3–10.6, 10.9}
E.  Future Global and Regional Climate Change
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. {6, 11–14}
E.1  Atmosphere: Temperature
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). {11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 14.8}
E.2  Atmosphere: Water Cycle 
Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions (see Figure SPM.8). {12.4, 14.3} 
E.3  Atmosphere: Air Quality
Observational and modelling evidence indicates that, all else being equal, locally higher surface temperatures in polluted regions will trigger regional feedbacks in chemistry and local emissions that will increase peak levels of ozone and PM2.5 (medium confidence). ...

E.4  Ocean 
The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation. {11.3, 12.4} 
E.5  Cryosphere 
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease. {12.4, 13.4}
E.6  Sea Level 
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century (see Figure SPM.9). Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. {13.3–13.5} 
E.7  Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 
Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification. {6.4} 
E.8  Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility 
Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond (see Figure SPM.10). Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2. {12.5}

No comments: