Thursday, February 25, 2016

Obsessing over global temperatures, example of fraud driven "seepage"

The number one dodge and time waster in our global warming public awareness dialogue is the nonstop obsessing over temperatures, taking them, processing them, matching models.  Every new study is treated as though this were some kind of ball game with armchair quarterbacks right and left.  

Thing is, those temperature numbers are useless information if you don't first grasp the fact of greenhouse gases and how they control our planet's insulation against frigid space.  We know this added heat is being absorbed into our global climate system, there's no where else for it to go undetected.

The physics means that everything under that atmosphere will absorb some of that added warmth.  Period!
Measuring those varied temperatures moving through the global system 100% is impossible, but why would that change the physics of what's going on?

Besides, we do have overwhelming thermometer-independent evidence.

27 -- The evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC

potholer54  |  Published on May 9, 2013  |  16:02 min

What's hideous is all the people who glibly dismiss the geophysics of greenhouse gases which is clearly known to a high degree of certitude.  And instead pretend that human's ability to measure the actual heat moving through our global heat and moisture distribution engine is the be all and end all of what they need to know.  

With that bit of venting, allow me to introduce you to an excellent primer on how well scientists understand the physics of our atmosphere.  By way of a map to Dr. David Archer's excellent college level course, which is freely available at YouTube.   This I follow with information about "seepage" from the man who coined the term, Dr. Lewandowsky. Finishing with a couple links to Admiral David Titley, and climatologist Gavin Schmidt who explain a bit more about temperatures and climate models.

Dr. David Archer
Global Warming
Understanding the Forecast

Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast is a comprehensive introduction to all aspects of global warming. Written in an accessible way, and assuming no specialist prior knowledge, this book examines the processes that control climate change and climate stability, from the distant past to the distant future.
Second Edition now shipping. Thoroughly revised and updated but basically the same material.

On-line interactive computer models allow you to play with the physics and chemistry behind the global warming forecast.

Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change is running now on Coursera, a not-for-profit education company that partners with the top universities and organizations in the world to offer courses online for anyone to take, for free. The video lectures have been completely redone in a punchy 2-10 minute format, with revamped exercises using the updated online models interspersed throughout.

Videos of lectures, both in ~45 minute classroom format (recorded Fall, 2009, University of Chicago), and in a 2-12 minute topical format intended for on-line learning (recorded Summer, 2013).

Video Lectures

Classroom format (~45 minutes)
Topical Coursera format (2-12 minutes)
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Chapter 13


Seepage: The effect of climate denial on the scientific community

By Stephan Lewandowsky
Professor, School of Experimental Psychology and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol
Posted on 7 May 2015
Filed under Climate denial

Seepage: The Executive Summary

We initiate our argument with the known fact that vested interests and political agents have long opposed political or regulatory action in response to climate change by appealing to scientific uncertainty. We know from earlier work that uncertainty is no cause for inaction—on the contrary, greater scientific uncertainty should make us worry more, not less, about the potential consequences of climate change. Alas, those actual scientific implications are often inverted in public discourse where uncertainty often invites wishful thinking and hence inaction. 
In this new article, we examine the effect of contrarian talking points that arise out of uncertainty on the scientific community itself. We show that although scientists are trained in dealing with uncertainty, there are several psychological and cognitive reasons why scientists may nevertheless be susceptible to uncertainty-based argumentation, even when scientists recognize those arguments as false and are actively rebutting them. 
Climate scientists have done an admirable job pursuing their science under great political pressure, and they have tirelessly rebutted pseudoscientific arguments against their work. Nonetheless, being human, scientists’ operate with the same cognitive apparatus and limitations as every other person. In consequence, it is important to be aware of the factors that may cause scientists to take positions that they would be less likely to take in the absence of outspoken public opposition. We refer to this phenomenon as seepage. …"
Admiral David Titley on Satellite Temperature and Climate Models 
greenmanbucket  |  Published on Dec 9, 2015  |  3:53 min

Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change 
TED   |  Published on May 1, 2014  |  12:10 min
You can't understand climate change in pieces, says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt. It's the whole, or it's nothing. In this illuminating talk, he explains how he studies the big picture of climate change with mesmerizing models that illustrate the endlessly complex interactions of small-scale environmental events.

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