Tuesday, February 7, 2017

#14d Debating GOP Disconnect AGW - Gore’s AIT(5-9) vs SPPI, Monckton's 35 lies

       *  EM’s response:   Okay, you’ve got me on this one. I did in fact confuse myself between climate science in the media vs the climate science community. I was mainly referencing outlandish claims from Al Gore in “An Inconvenient Truth”  by relying on the Republican's outlandish PR fraudster the Lord Monckton - now that's what self inflicted delusion is all about, allow me to explain.  

In this continuation of my debate with EM I have allowed him to distract me with SPPI's 35 Errors, Lies and Deceptions contrivance that their "Lord" Monckton has so successfully astro-turfed all over the internet.  I will demonstrate that SPPI and Lord Monckton are in fact the malicious liars who ruthlessly politicize the science in order to confuse and stupefy innocents like my pal EM and to further their self-interested myopic and destructive agenda.  Here I review points 5 through : Kilimanjaro, Lake Chad, Hurricane Katrina, Coral Bleaching events.

After my introduction
*   I will first quote SPPI’s Lord M’s claim.  
*   Then share Gore’s relevant AIT quotes so you can decide for yourselves how honesty (or not) it was described by SPPI's Lord.  
*   This is followed with some commentary intended to add perspective to the Lord’s spin and offer ‘the rest of the story’ regarding the issue in question.  
*   Rounding up the exercise I’ll include authoritative links and some YouTube videos to offer genuine learning opportunities regarding the questions raised. 
Reviewing Lord Monckton’s 35 SPPI Errors, Lies and Deceptions Regarding “An Inconvenient Truth.”  (The cloned version I copied for this came from Scottthong.wordpress.) 
5. Snows of Kilimanjaro “melting”
Temperature at the summit never rises above freezing. Most of the melt occured before 1936.

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  And now we’re beginning to see the impact in the real world. This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago, and more recently. And a friend of mine just came back from Kilimanjaro with a picture he took a couple of months ago. Another friend of mine Lonnie Thompson studies glaciers. Here’s Lonnie with a sliver of a once mighty glacier. Within the decade there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.

Here’s another example of how the Republican deception misrepresents.  It’s true that the summit never rises above freezing.  Melt is due of sublimation which occurs in freezing temperatures. Sublimation has increased due to changing air currents.  A warming climate system is what’s altering the flow of our planet's all important jet streams, the atmospheric currents that push and pull storm systems across the globe.

Of course, most melting occurred between the end of the last ice age and 1936!  Jezz, those glaciers used to flow hundreds of miles onto the lowlands.  

PR wise, Gore picked a lousy example, but to deny global warming's impact on Kilimanjaro is way more disconnected, actually it’s downright dishonest.

The melting snows of Kilimanjaro
Glaciers crowning Africa's tallest mountain could disappear within decades.
Brian Vastag - November 2, 2009 

Chris Larsen, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, called tropical glaciers like those on Kilimanjaro the "drama queens" of the glacier world: they respond dramatically to even slight insults. "When the climate changes, they can portray a bad situation in even worse light," says Larsen. "The fact that these ice fields are now on the verge of ending a 11,000 year existence is quite significant.”


Climate change on Mount Kilimanjaro could see the end of those famed snows

Glacier shrinkage on Kilimanjaro is nothing new, but now, it’s faster than ever: around one percent a year from 1912 to 1953 but 2.5 percent a year from 1989 to 2007, when climate change was in full swing.  …

It was found that ice between six and 17 feet thick had vanished since 2000. Almost a quarter of the ice was lost from 2000 to 2006: no factor other than climate change on Mount Kilimanjaro can account for this sudden change. Deforestation affects only lower areas, and the glaciers are high above. …

Naysayers claim that it’s lack of precipitation rather than higher air temperatures that are responsible, but isn’t that itself a result of climate change? …

The snows of Kilimanjaro survived a 300-year drought about 4,200 years back, but human behaviour clearly threatens them now. …
6. Lake Chad “drying up”
> not “ found ” <
It also dried up in 8500BC, 5500BC, 1000BC and 100BC. Where was our carbon-polluting human industry then?

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  This is Lake Chad, once one of the largest lakes in the world. It has dried up over the last few decades to almost nothing. That has been complicating the other problems that they also have. 

The second reason why this is a paradox: Global warming creates more evaporation of the ocean that seeds the clouds, but it also sucks moisture out of the soil. Soil evaporation increases dramatically with higher temperatures. And that has consequences for us in the United States as well.

Yes, Lake Chad is drying up and a warming climate system with it's many cascading consequences are responsible exacerbated by local human impacts on the surrounding landscape.

Next to this reality consider SPPI’s counter claim? “Where was our carbon-polluting human industry then?”  Besides being whiny plaintiff cry baby stuff, it’s a malicious fraud.  

Trying to deny human responsible for the buildup in GHG concentrations in our atmosphere requires a disconnect from Earth’s reality that crosses over into lunatic thinking. There is no debate about our contribution!  Only blatant conceited hubristic denial!

History of the physical dynamics of Lake Chad

During the post-glacial periods, climatic conditions in the Sahara were much more clement than they are today. The actual desert did not have its current proportions, it was much smaller.

According to historians, the Sahara was largely covered by Mediterranean woody vegetation, particularly in the central massifs, which were surrounded by many lakes and dry grasslands. This state of affairs was more conducive to the proliferation of all kinds of wildlife and game.

Depending on the alternation of wet and dry phases, Lake Chad could stretch or retreat, but from 4000 BC. BC to date, the waters have shrunk at a fast pace, corresponding with the advent of aridity and desert encroachment with several origins.
7. Hurricane Katrina “man made”
> not “ found ” <
Maximum hurricane wind speed and number of hurricanes has not increased.

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Now I’m going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. … 

And then of course came Katrina. It is worth remembering that when it hit Florida it was a Category 1, but it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage. And then, what happened? 

Before it hit New Orleans, it went over warmer water. As the water temperature increases, the wind velocity increases and the moisture content increases. And you’ll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida. And then as it comes into the Gulf over warm water it becomes stronger and stronger and stronger.

Pure cow pies.  No serious person ever said Katrina was caused by manmade global warming!  Intensified definitely.  

Another simple reality that Republican delusionals hide from is that NO STORM OCCURS OUTSIDE OF OUR WARMING GLOBAL HEAT AND MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ENGINE.  These days, every weather systems carries an extra boost thanks to global warming.  Simple deniable, but unavoidable physics!

The physical facts are that after a weakened Katrina crossed Florida, rather than blowing itself out, it crossed an extremely warming patch of Gulf Coast waters, it’s those hot waters that reenergized and created the category five monster.

Of course that extreme hot patch was the result of humans warming our oceans at a speed that, geologically speaking, is breakneck.

We exist within a global heat and moisture distribution engine which follows very simple laws of physics.  As with all physical systems increasing heat energizes reactions and dynamics - Weather patterns are no different, only god given insanity can allow thinking humans to deny such fundamental physical facts of life.  

27 Storms: Arlene to Zeta
Published on Apr 1, 2014
27 named storms formed in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which broke many records including the most hurricanes, the most category 5 hurricanes, and the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic.


Climate and Hurricanes 2016
Published on Jun 9, 2016
Leading Atmospheric Scientists weigh-in on impacts of climate change on this year's hurricane season and beyond.


National Climate Assessment

Key Message 8: Changes in Hurricanes
The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.


Pacific hurricanes to strengthen as Earth warms
Hotter subsurface water expected to fuel bigger storms

JUN 25, 2015

Large storms roil the upper ocean. This churns up deeper seawater. When that water reaches the surface, it largely controls how much heat is available to power a storm. Since the mid-1970s, average Pacific typhoon intensity has risen 10 percent. Subsurface waters in that time have warmed about 0.75° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) on average. …
8. Polar bears “dying”
> not “ found ” <
Four bears died in a storm. Four. Measly. Bears. Meanwhile, there are 25000 polar bears today compared to 5000 in 1940.

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  So there is a faster build up of heat here, at the North Pole, in the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic generally, than anywhere else on the planet. That’s not good for creatures like polar bears that depend on the ice. A new scientific study shows that for the first time they’re finding polar bears that have actually drowned, swimming long distances up to 60 miles to find the ice. They did not find that before.

Gore said nothing of the sort, he was talking habitat loss.  That ongoing habitat loss is observed physical facts.

SPPI’s 5,000 figure is pure fiction, no one did a global polar bear survey in the 1930s or in 1940s.  The current rough estimate of around 25,000 does reflect an increase from 1960, but that has to do with hunting restrictions more than anything else.

As for the polar bear global warming connection, here are somethings these fraudsters hide from their audience.

Consequences of Climate Change: Polar Bears to have Shorter Hunting, Breeding Season, NASA Says
By Jessica F | Sep 15, 2016

The study was published in the journal The Cryosphere, the first study to correlate sea ice changes to polar bear subpopulation in the Arctic region. "This study shows declining sea ice for all subpopulations of polar bears," co-author Harry Stern, a researcher with the University of Washington's Polar Science Center said in a statement. …

The truth about polar bears
Depending on whom you ask, the North’s sentinel species is either on the edge of extinction or an environmental success story. An in-depth look at the complicated, contradictory and controversial science behind the sound bites.

By Zac Unger | December 1, 2012


NEWS | October 4, 2016
Polar bears across the Arctic face shorter sea ice season
By Michelle Ma, University of Washington
Adapted by Maria-Jose Viñas, NASA’s Earth Science News Team

A new study by University of Washington researchers, funded by NASA and using satellite data from NASA and other agencies, found a trend toward earlier sea ice melt in the spring and later ice growth in the fall across all 19 polar bear subpopulations, which can negatively impact the feeding and breeding capabilities of the bears. The paper, published on Sept. 14 in the journal The Cryosphere, is the first to quantify the sea ice changes in each polar bear subpopulation across the entire Arctic region using metrics that are specifically relevant to polar bear biology. …

In 17 of the 19 polar bear subpopulations, the researchers found that the total number of ice-covered days declined at the rate of seven to 19 days per decade between 1979 and 2014. The decline was even greater in the Barents Sea and the Arctic basin …

The researchers found that on average, spring melting was three to nine days earlier per decade, and fall freeze-up was three to nine days later per decade. Over the 35 years of Arctic sea ice satellite data. that corresponds to a roughly 3-and-a-half-week shift at either end — and seven weeks of total loss of good sea ice habitat for polar bears.

"We expect that if the trends continue, compared with today, polar bears will experience another six to seven weeks of ice-free periods by mid-century," Stern said. …
9. Coral reefs “bleaching”
We have a match - “bleaching” appears
It was caused by an unusual El Nino pattern, not global warming.

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Coral reefs all over the world because of global warming and other factors are bleaching and they end up like this. All the fish species that depend on the coral reef are also in jeopardy as a result. Overall species loss is now occurring at a rate 1000 times greater than the natural background rate.

SPPI follows with another inane comment meant to stupefy rather than clarify.  Yes indeed Global Coral Bleaching Events seem to be linked to El Nino events.  Of course, this ‘natural ENSO pattern’ is occurring in an ocean that is absorbing 90% of the extra heat being sequestered on Earth thanks to the increased insulating ability of Earth’s atmosphere.  

In other words, El Nino have been intensified by ocean warming > the direct result of global warming > the direct result of increased atmospheric insulation >  the direct result of massive fossil fuels burning by people and society.  Cascading consequences on the real Earth that we depend on for everything. 


Now predicted to last until at least the end of 2016 - By far the longest event in recorded history.

In 1998, a huge underwater heatwave killed 16% of the corals on reefs around the world. Triggered by the El Niño of that year, it was declared the first major global coral bleaching event. The second global bleaching event that struck was triggered by the El Niño of 2010. The US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the third global bleaching event in October 2015 and it has already become the longest event recorded, impacting some reefs in consecutive years.

The new phenomenon of global coral bleaching events is caused by ocean warming (93% of climate change heat is absorbed by the ocean). Corals are unable to cope with today’s prolonged peaks in temperatures – they simply haven’t been able to adapt to the higher base temperatures of the ocean. Although reefs represent less than 0.1 percent of the world’s ocean floor, they help support approximately 25 percent of all marine species. As a result, the livelihoods of 500 million people and income worth over $30 billion are at stake. …

Climate change impacts on corals

Climate change has already impacted coral reefs in the Great Barrier Reef as corals are highly vulnerable to its potential effects. As the back-bone of the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem, corals play a critical role. They form habitats for thousands of species, including fish and molluscs. …


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