Wednesday, February 8, 2017

#14e Debating GOP Disconnect AGW - Gore’s AIT(10-16) vs SPPI, Monckton's 35 lies

       *  EM’s response:   Okay, you’ve got me on this one. I did in fact confuse myself between climate science in the media vs the climate science community. I was mainly referencing outlandish claims from Al Gore in “An Inconvenient Truth”  by relying on the Republican's outlandish PR fraudster the Lord Monckton - now that's what self inflicted delusion is all about, allow me to explain.  

In this continuation of my debate with EM I have allowed him to distract me with SPPI's 35 Errors, Lies and Deceptions contrivance that their "Lord" Monckton has so successfully astro-turfed all over the internet.  I will demonstrate that SPPI and Lord Monckton are in fact the malicious liars who ruthlessly politicize the science in order to confuse and stupefy innocents like my pal EM and to further their self-interested myopic and destructive agenda.  Here I review points 10 through 16 - difference 100ppm makes, Hurricane Katrina, Japanese typhoon record, hurricane strength, insurance loses, Mumbai flooding, tornados.

This debate started over my musing regarding the "Republican Disconnect From Planet Earth."
After my introduction
*   I will first quote SPPI’s Lord M’s claim.  
*   Then share Gore’s relevant AIT quotes so you can decide for yourselves how honesty (or not) it was described by SPPI's Lord.  
*   This is followed with some commentary intended to add perspective to the Lord’s spin and offer ‘the rest of the story’ regarding the issue in question.  
*   Rounding up the exercise I’ll include authoritative links and some YouTube videos to offer genuine learning opportunities regarding the questions raised. 

Reviewing Lord Monckton’s 35 SPPI Errors, Lies and Deceptions Regarding “An Inconvenient Truth.”  (This cloned version I came from Scottthong.wordpress.) 

The text of Inconvenient Truth provided by:

Quoting SPPI: Below are the 35 errors pointed out by the SPPI article, with my short summary of the actual truths behind each dishonest fib. See the full explanations at Science and Public Policy Institute article..."  

However, I will demonstrate that SPPI and Lord Monckton are in fact the malicious liars who politicized the science in order to confuse and stupefy innocents like my pal EM, and to further their self-interested myopic and destructive agenda.  
10. 100 ppmv of CO2 “melting mile-thick ice”
> close enough <
Gore overstates the effect of CO2 ten times greater than even the IPCC’s highest estimate.
Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Now an important point: In all of this time, 650,000 years, the CO2 level has never gone above 300 parts per million. Now, as I said, they can also measure temperature. Here is what the temperature has been on our earth. …

This is the difference between a nice day and having a mile of ice above your head. Keep that in mind when you look at this fact. Carbon dioxide having never gone above 300ppm, here is where CO2 is now. (in 2016 its passed 400ppm)

Gore didn’t overstate anything, he simply shared the geophysical record for the past 650,000 years in Earth’s history.  A time when CO2 fluctuated between 180 and 280ppm, a couple times nearing 300ppm before dropping down.

The horrifying reality is that, yes indeed, only 100ppm separates Earth’s temperate climate from an ice age.  Now we’re up by another hundred.  That’s a global hot tropical climate in the making. 

Mr. Republican imagine our complex society conceived and nurtured in a temperate global climate regime, being thrust into a sweltering world devoid of glacier other then some remnants surviving on Antarctica, perhaps Greenland.  This reality, over the course of a few generations, is what we are doing ourselves.

I’m sure Earth and her biosphere will adjust just fine, given a few thousand and tens of thousands of years.  But, that won’t do our children any good.
The World Passes 400 PPM Threshold. Permanently

Greenland is Losing More Ice Than Scientists Thought
11. Hurricane Caterina “manmade”
> two hits for Katrina <
Air temperatures in the area were the coldest in 25 years, not warmest.
Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  And then of course came Katrina. It is worth remembering that when it hit Florida it was a Category 1, but it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage. And then, what happened? 

Before it hit New Orleans, it went over warmer water. As the water temperature increases, the wind velocity increases and the moisture content increases. And you’ll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida. And then as it comes into the Gulf over warm water it becomes stronger and stronger and stronger. Look at that Hurricane’s eye. And of course the consequences were so horrendous; there are no words to describe it.

SPPI and the Lord’s claim is blatant idiocy, it’s the ocean temperatures that throttle hurricane intensity.  Yet, another example of the Republican PR machine’s dedication to stupefying rather than educating.

Hurricane Katrina and sea surface temperature
Published on Aug 31, 2015

Hurricane Katrina moves into the Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall in this video showing sea surface temperatures, with areas of yellow, orange and red representing 82 degrees Fahrenheit and above.
How Hurricane's Develop - Hurricane Sandy
A NASA Look Back at Hurricane Katrina
Understanding Katrina

12. Japanese typhoons “a new record”
> they sure were ! <
Tropical cyclone frequency has fallen in the past 50 years.
Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Japan again didn’t get as much attention in our news media, but they set an all time record for typhoons. The previous record was seven. Here are all ten of the ones they had in 2004. The science textbooks that have to be re-written because they say it is impossible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic. It was the same year that the first one that ever hit Brazil. The summer of 2005 is one for the books.

The evidence says SPPI and the Lord are once again lying to their audience who lap it up without a critical second thought.

Japan’s future typhoons: disruptive, deadly and destructive

By Mark Schreiber | Japan Times
Six typhoons have made landfall this year on the Japanese archipelago, already giving 2016 the distinction of being the second-worst year in terms of direct typhoon hits in modern times. But it’s only Sept. 25 — the season’s not nearly over and we’re getting closer to matching or surpassing the 2004 record when 10 of those unwelcome visitors pounded Japan.
The 10th typhoon of 2016 (aka Lionrock), in particular, promises to be long remembered.
LETTERS - NatureGeoscience

Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s
Wei Mei and Shang-Ping Xie

…Here, we apply cluster analysis to bias-corrected data and show that, over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12–15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled. … 
13. Hurricanes “getting stronger
> they sure are ! <
They haven’t in 60 years.

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Now I’m going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes. 

It flabbergasts me away how people can kid themselves about a fundamental physical fact that can be tested on your kitchen stove any time you want.  Take a pot of cold water, toss a small handful of rice into that water.  Turn on the heat and watch, be patient, science requires some patience and observation, so hang in there.  How did the rice behave in the beginning, what changed as the water got warmer.  Yes!  I'll bet that as the water got warmer, you saw the rice become more agitated, which increased with temperature increase.  

That's how the physics works in a liquid water world.  No getting around it.  Heat it up, energize it and it will be more active and do more work, or destruction, as the case may be.

Sure, it’s not quite that simple, complex storm systems require a convergence of different elements including the proper wind conditions to spawn.  But the fact remains, we are energizing the global climate system, more heat in the oceans, more heat and energy in the air and on land, more moisture transport, all that equals chaotic disruptive weather.  Simple deniable, yet unavoidable physics.  


Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent: Study
By Andrew Freedman

A new study by Kerry Emanuel, a prominent hurricane researcher at MIT, found that contrary to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent in the years to come, especially in the western North Pacific, where storms can devastate the heavily populated coastlines of Asian nations. Emanuel's research showed the same holds true for the North Atlantic, where about 12 percent of the world's tropical cyclones spin each year.

Emanuel's study casts doubt on what had been the consensus view of most climate scientists — that in most ocean basins, tropical cyclones are likely to become less frequent as the world warms, but that the storms that do occur are likely to contain stronger winds and heavier rains. That view was expressed most recently in a 2012 report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Emanuel's study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences


New Evidence That Climate Change Is Altering Hurricane Season as You Know It
By Linda Lam
May 19 2015

The study found from 1984 to 2012, wind speeds in tropical cyclones have increased by 3 mph. During that same time period, they discovered there were 6.1 fewer storms than they would expect if ocean and land temperatures have not increased.
“It’s basically a tradeoff between frequency and intensity,” Elsner said.


14. Big storm insurances losses “increasing”
> “increasing” does not appear in this context <
Insured losses in hurricane-prione areas were lower in 2005 than 1905.

Gore's An Inconvenient Truth: 

Between 1905 and 2005, now that's what you can call desperately clinging too utter delusion.  Unidirectional skepticism equals denial.

Here’s an interesting collection of insurance payouts and natural disaster records.
Significant natural disasters since 1980

and its not getting better

15. Mumbai “flooding”
We have a match 
There’s been no increase in rainfall over 48 years.

Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Flooding in Asia, Mumbai, India this past July (2005): 37 inches of rain in 24 hours, by far the largest downpour that any city in India has ever received. A lot of flooding in China also. Global warming paradoxically causes not only more flooding, but also more droughts. 
SPPI and the Lord deal in shear fantasy, actually it's malicious fraud that ought to be legally actionable.

Published online: 7 March 2016 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2941
More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions

Markus G. Donat, Andrew L. Lowry, Lisa V. Alexander, Paul A. O’Gorman and Nicola Maher

Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate. It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will amplify differences between dry and wet regions, but this has been disputed for changes over land.

Furthermore, precipitation changes may differ not only between regions but also between different aspects of precipitation, such as totals and extremes. Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world’s dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models. 

Despite uncertainties in total precipitation changes, extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases in both observations and climate models over the past six decades. … This intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world’s dry regions. …

UN – 1995 to 2015, Flood Disasters Affected 2.3 Billion and Killed 157,000

… According to the report, an average of 335 weather-related disasters were recorded per year between 2005 and 2014, an increase of 14% from 1995-2004, and almost twice the level recorded during 1985-1995. …


Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel Weather and Climate Extremes
Ly Mouhamed , Seydou B. Traore, , Agali Alhassane , Benoît Sarr
September 2013, Volume 1, page 19-25

The results show a general warming trend throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely through a negative trend in the number of cool nights, and more frequent warm days and warm spells. This was the case not only for locations inside the continent, but also for those in coastal areas. Trends in rainfall related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures. 

Nevertheless, a general tendency of decreased annual total rainfall and maximum number of consecutive wet days characterizes the study period. The cumulated rainfall of extremely wet days shows a positive trend in most locations. As for the maximum number of consecutive wet days, it shows an overall decreasing trend from 1960 to the mid 1980s, but starting from the late 1980s, an increasing trend is observed in several locations, indicating that extreme rainfall events have become more frequent in the West African Sahel during the last decade, compared to the 1961–1990 period.

Trends in the frequency and intensity of floods across the central U.S. - Leighton Walter Kille 
16. Severe tornadoes “more frequent”
> “more frequent” cannot be found in the documentary transcript <
Severe tornadoes have fallen in frequency for the last 50 years. Tropical storms are also at the 
lowest frequency in decades.
Quoting Gore's An Inconvenient Truth:  Now I’m going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes. Hurricanes Jean, Francis and Ivan were among them. In the same year we had that string of big hurricanes; we also set an all time record for tornadoes in the United States
It’s true the tornado connection to global warming is a point of much contention between scientists.  In fact, one and all would agree that there is no consensus between climate scientists about how the interplay of various necessary components of tornado formation will play themselves out as our globe warms.  

What I wonder about is how in the world can such minor questions overrule the greater reality that we understand with exquisite detail.  Earth is knowable, there's no mystery to why weather is changing or what it forebodes for us.  

Besides, though the jury is still out, incoming observations are indeed indicating increased activity. 

Extreme Tornado Outbreaks Have Become More Common
Posted by Francesco Fiondella on March 2, 2016

A new paper shows that the average number of tornadoes per outbreak has grown by more than 40% over the last half century. The likelihood of extreme outbreaks – those with many tornadoes – is also greater.



Is Global Warming Linked to Severe Weather?

As the Earth warms, the amount of rain or snow falling in the heaviest one percent of storms has risen nearly 20 percent on average in the United States—almost three times the rate of increase in total precipitation between 1958 and 2007.

In other words, the heaviest storms have very recently become even heavier.
The Northeast has seen a 74 percent increase in the amount of rain or snow falling in the heaviest storms. …


The 2011 Super Outbreak was the most prolific tornado outbreak in United States history. It produced 362 tornadoes, with 218 of those in a single 24-hour period on April 27,[5] including 11 EF4 and 4 EF5 tornadoes.

{2004 with 1819 counted tornadoes was also the record breaker and remains so to this day, though that can be explained and it would be deluded to believe the current lull is going to last. 

The greatest number of tornadoes spawned from a hurricane is 118 from Hurricane Ivan in 2004.[8]}

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